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Naftaaktsiad

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  • Huvitav aga vähe Eesti investorite huvi võitnud sektor on naftatootjad. Mida näiteks arvata British Petroleum'i (BP) aktsiast? On mõnevõrra tõusnud koos muude mittetehn. aktsiatega aasta algusest. Sektor paistab suhteliselt uimaste hinnaliikumistega, va. kui nafta hind kuhugi liigub. Lähematest sündmustest võib huvitav olla, mida Bush Saddam'iga ette võtab. Kui ikka võtab, BP saab ainult tõusta, kuna nafta hind kerkib. Teine ostupõhjendus võiks olla, et globaalmajanduse taastumine suurendab energiatarbimist ja tõenäolisem on nafta hinna tõus kui langemine. Hinnataseme poolest on energiaaktsiat mitte hirmus kallid. Enronil oli vist ka mõju. Küsimus laiale ringile, kas nafta hind lähiaastatel tõuseb või langeb?
  • Elliott Wave International analüütikute arvates tõuseb nafta päris tugevalt. Nemad muidugi ei arvesta turuväliste faktoritega nagu sõjad, majanduskasv jne. Analüüsitakse massipsühholoogiat (mis omakorda pole mõjutatud turuvälistest sündmustest).
  • Väidetavalt praegu naftafirmad ise nafta hinna langusesse 2002. aastal ei usu. Ja kui hind jääb üle 20 dollari barrelilt, kavatsetakse teenida suuri kasumeid. Huvitav, kas turg nende kasumitega kaasa ka läheb või eeldab, et aasta pärast nafta hind nii kui nii langeb, naftafirmad on kahjumis ja keegi praegu ja sellel aastal eriti hoogsalt ei osta.
  • Huvitav on näiteks Enterprise Oil plc (ETP), mida Lehman neljapäeval upgreidis ja mida teised naftafirmad ära osta tahavad. Näiteks Statoil ja täna Itaalia ENI.

    PS. Oman ise väikselt ETP aktsiaid.
  • Eni's Mincato prepared to pay premium for Enterprise Oil
    3/25/2002 - 1:46:00 AM

    LONDON, Mar 25, 2002 (AFX-Europe via COMTEX) -- Eni SpA chief executive Vittorio Mincato said he is prepared to pay a premium to buy Enterprise Oil PLC, but the total will not be much more than 5.5 bln usd.

    In an interview in the Wall Street Journal Europe, he said he is not interested in making a hostile bid and will not pay a large premium, even if a rival buyer emerged.

    He declined to specify the premium Eni is prepared to offer, but said he is willing to pay cash for the company that has been on his shortlist of targets ever since he launched Eni's expansion plan in 1999.

    Mincato said he is not involved in any takeover talks with Enterprise.

    "It is not useful to negotiate with a management which has said it is not interested in seeking buyers," he said.

    Since 1999, Eni has acquired two other independent UK oil companies -- British-Borneo and Lasmo PLC.

    Enterprise Oil shares closed Friday at 620 pence. Industry officials estimated that taking into account Enterprise Oil's debt of 1.2 bln usd, a deal such as that Mincato has in mind would value Enterprise at about 5.5 bln usd, depending on the premium, the newspaper said.

    Mincato said it was possible that Enterprise Oil's management expects an offer of 700 pence a share.

    "But that's not the right price and I'm not ready to pay it, Mincato said.

    If Enterprise can entice someone to pay more, "I will call (Enterprise chairman Graham Ahearne) to congratulate him," the paper quoted him as saying.

    Mincato's three year term as chief executive expires at end-May.

    vs NNN


  • Huvitav artikkel: Link

    War makes oil a 'win-win' buy
    By Vince Heaney FT Investor, 08:57 GMT Mar 17, 2002

    LONDON (FT Investor) -- The possibility of US military action against Iraq cannot be ignored by investors.

    A second Gulf War could snuff out signs of stock market resurgence and threaten to derail the cyclical economic recovery. Investors need to look for stocks that offer the prospect of solid performance if the economic recovery continues to develop, but which also offer a degree of protection in the event of war in the Gulf. The oil sector appears to fit the bill.

    I remain cautiously optimistic about the prospects for UK stocks based on improvements in the macroeconomic backdrop and the technical condition of the market, topics covered in last week's column. But experience suggests war against Iraq would produce a sharply higher oil price. The consequent transfer of income from oil consumers to producers would reduce global economic growth at a time when the scope for policy response is limited by the extent of changes already enacted in the wake of September 11.

    Some insurance is needed. But the problem with assessing political risk is that it is difficult to assign a probability to the worst-case war scenario. Paying too high a price for protection can leave you high and dry if the worst outcome is avoided. The FTSE oil sector has performed strongly in 2002, rising by more than 13 per cent in the year to date. The pace of increase has picked up in March as the perceived threat of military action has grown, driving the crude oil price higher. Investors need to ask if there is still value in the sector.

    Strategists at Merrill Lynch see scope for further upside, describing the European energy sector as a "win-win" proposition. A recovery in global manufacturing will increase demand for oil. If the economic recovery disappoints, Merrill suggests that an attractive mix of characteristics including sound balance sheets and solid earnings growth rates would cushion the sector.

    Value in oil



    Valuations are not excessive. Energy is the cheapest European sector on the Merrill Lynch valuation matrix. According to Credit Suisse First Boston, current share prices for the UK oil and gas sector imply a 10-year earnings growth rate of 7 per cent. By historic standards expectations do not look high - the actual 10-year earnings per share growth rate for the sector is almost 15 per cent.

    But recent share price increases have introduced a note of caution. "After a reasonable run-up the absolute valuations are starting to look a bit stretched," says Mark Iannotti of Schroder Salomon Smith Barney. However, Iannotti believes the risks are not great - with crude prices above $18-$19 a barrel there will be support from earnings growth.

    The crude price outlook is brighter than at the start of the year, even excluding the potential for war. In January there were doubts about compliance with the December 28 Opec agreement, and whether it would be sufficient to avert a price war between Opec and Russia. However, "threats of a price war failed to materialise, and ultimately price levels revealed the market's backing of the agreement, offsetting lower-than-expected demand due to the mild winter in the northern hemisphere," said Edward Ennis of SG Securities. The success of the agreement led the cartel to extend the quota cuts through the second quarter at yesterday's Opec meeting.

    Restriction of supply will help support prices during seasonally weak demand in the second quarter, while resurgent economic growth is expected to increase oil demand as the year progresses.

    Valuations look reasonable and the crude price outlook is brighter, but it is not all good news. Refining margins remain very weak, suffering from a reduction in demand after the September 11 attacks and the mild winter. Analysts see little improvement in margins in the second quarter. However, the weakness in refining margins encourages producers to reduce production runs and works to reduce stocks of refined products. Lower inventories combined with increased demand later in the year may produce a recovery in margins over the medium-term.

    Three choices

    There is a strong positive correlation between oil prices and oil stocks. Profit at oil majors BP [BP, News, Chart, Research] [BP, News, Chart, Research] and Shell [SHEL, News, Chart, Research] [RD, News, Chart, Research] [SC, News, Chart, Research] increases by around 5 per cent for every $1 a barrel increase in the oil price. Enterprise Oil [ETP, News, Chart, Research] suffers from being stuck between the higher returns offered by the majors and the growth potential of the smaller exploration companies, but it offers a more highly geared play on the oil price.



    Mark Redway of Teather & Greenwood suggests Enterprise is fair value at 670p with oil prices at $20 a barrel, but if there were a sustainable rise to $24, not merely a spike higher, a valuation in excess of 700p would be more appropriate. Enterprise Oil is also a potential takeover target having already rejected an unsolicited bid in December, reportedly from Italy's ENI. The possibility exists for a premium in the event of a fresh approach.

    If the recovery takes off, the oil sector will not be the year's star performer, but it has solid prospects and defensive appeal in the event of war in the Gulf.

    Vince Heaney is markets editor for FT Investor in London.
  • Shell tegi pakkumise ETP-le. Hinnaks 15%+eilne sulgemishind, 725 penni aktsia. $30.885 ADR kohta NYSE-l. Kõnelused olevat juba kaua käinud. Elu kiireim kasum. :)
  • Kas võiks oodata konkureerivaid pakkumisi? ENI ja Statoil võimalikud pakkujad.
  • Turg ilmselt ootab, et jah, opened 31.60.
    kas oled pikemalt asjaga tegelenud või niisama hobianalüütik?
    Muide "ostan aktsiat seepärast, et analyytik upgreidis ja olen kuulnud, et tahetakse ära osta" võib elu kiireima kahjumi ka tekitada:)
  • Aktsia oli muidu odav ka ja naftahind tõusis. Taust oli positiivne. Upgreidi peale eriti õnneks veel ei tõusnud. Tehniliselt nägi graafik ka välja nagu tahaks tõusta. Graafik esmalt tähelepanu köitiski. Kunagi tegin samamoodi, graafiku impulsi peale õige panuse Xoma aktsiale. Kuiva kogemust nati on, kuid praktikat vähe. :) Isegi 31.95 käis ära. Pakkumine kestab 21 päeva. Millal võiks enam-vähem kindel olla, et konkureerivat pakkumist ei tule? See peaks aja küsimus olema.
  • naftaaktsiad saavad vist ainult ülespoole rühkida.hetkeline hinnalangus tundub möödas olevat.
    XOM il hea ostukoht.
  • Olen ka ise neil silma peal hoidnud, aga huvitav on, et neil languspäevadel tõusid put-optsioonid küll väga hästi võrreldes callide tõusuga just üleeilse väikse ja eilse suurema tõusuga. Mõne puhul oli näha, et callid lausa kaotasid oma väärtust või siis liikusid vaevumärgatavalt. Kas selle taga on investorite väike usk comebacki ja edasisse tõusu ning täna tuleb tagasi alla või...?

  • Naftaaktsiad ja indeksid on ostmist väärt vaid väga lühiajalises mõttes,jutt käib siin paarist nädalast,maksimaalselt ühest kuust.Sektor on selgelt nõrk ja tundub,et valmstub paremal juhul paigalseisuks,reaalselt siiski keskpikaks korrektsiooniks allapoole.Rääkides mustritest siis on kujunemas klassikaline,paremini või halvemini nähtav ülemine "head and shoulders" tagasipööre,soovi korral ülemine topeltellips.
    Lihtsalt jälgitavad kohad positsiooni sulgemiseks või lühikeseks müügiks saabuvad XLE puhul weekly OBV(on balance volume) esimesel horisontaalsel vastupanul(kinnitusel) ning ka daily MACD indikaatori tagasisaabumisel oma keskjoone juurde.
  • See allolev artikkel paistab küll puhtalt turuga manipuleerimisena.Kellelgi on vist jäänud positsioon kätte.

    Ready for $262/barrel oil?
    Two of the world's most successful investors say oil will be in short supply in the coming months.
    By Nelson Schwartz, FORTUNE senior writer
    January 27, 2006: 4:40 PM EST


    DAVOS, Switzerland (FORTUNE) - Be afraid. Be very afraid.

    That's the message from two of the world's most successful investors on the topic of high oil prices. One of them, Hermitage Capital's Bill Browder, has outlined six scenarios that could take oil up to a downright terrifying $262 a barrel.

    The other, billionaire investor George Soros, wouldn't make any specific predictions about prices. But as a legendary commodities player, it's worth paying heed to the words of the man who once took on the Bank of England -- and won. "I'm very worried about the supply-demand balance, which is very tight," Soros says.

    "U.S. power and influence has declined precipitously because of Iraq and the war on terror and that creates an incentive for anyone who wants to make trouble to go ahead and make it." As an example, Soros pointed to the regime in Iran, which is heading towards a confrontation with the West over its nuclear power program and doesn't show any signs of compromising. "Iran is on a collision course and I have a difficulty seeing how such a collision can be avoided," he says.

    Another emboldened troublemaker is Russian president Vladimir Putin, Soros said, citing Putin's recent decision to briefly shut the supply of natural gas to Ukraine. The only bit of optimism Soros could offer was that the next 12 months would be most dangerous in terms of any price shocks, because beginning in 2007 he predicts new oil supplies will come online.

    Hermitage's Bill Browder doesn't yet have the stature of George Soros. But his $4 billion Moscow-based Hermitage fund rose 81.5 percent last year and is up a whopping 1780 percent since its inception a decade ago. A veteran of Salomon Bros. and Boston Consulting Group, the 41-year old Browder has been especially successful because of his contrarian take; for example, he continued to invest in Russia when others fled following the Kremlin's assault on Yukos.

    Doomsdays 1 through 6
    To come up with some likely scenarios in the event of an international crisis, his team performed what's known as a regression analysis, extrapolating the numbers from past oil shocks and then using them to calculate what might happen when the supply from an oil-producing country was cut off in six different situations. The fall of the House of Saud seems the most far-fetched of the six possibilities, and it's the one that generates that $262 a barrel.

    More realistic -- and therefore more chilling -- would be the scenario where Iran declares an oil embargo a la OPEC in 1973, which Browder thinks could cause oil to double to $131 a barrel. Other outcomes include an embargo by Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez ($111 a barrel), civil war in Nigeria ($98 a barrel), unrest and violence in Algeria ($79 a barrel) and major attacks on infrastructure by the insurgency in Iraq ($88 a barrel).

    Regressions analysis may be mathematical but it's an art, not a science. And some of these scenarios are quite dubious, like Venezuela shutting the spigot. (For more on Chavez and Venezuela, click here.)

    Energy chiefs at the World Economic Forum in Davos downplayed the likelihood of a serious oil shortage. In a statement Friday, Shell's CEO Jeroen Van der Veer declared, "There is no reason for pessimism." OPEC Acting Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said "OPEC will step in at any time there is a shortage in the market." But then no one in the industry, including Van der Veer, foresaw an extended run of $65 oil -- or even $55 oil -- like we've been having.

    It's clear that there is very, very little wiggle room, and that most consumers, including those in the United States, have acceded so far to the new reality of $60 or even $70 oil. And as Soros points out, the White House has its hands full in Iraq and elsewhere.

    Although there are long-term answers like ethanol, what's needed is a crash conservation effort in the United States. This doesn't have to be command-and-control style. Moral suasion counts for a lot, and if the president suggested staying home with family every other Sunday or otherwise cutting back on unnecessary drives, he could please the family values crowd while also changing the psychology of the oil market by showing that the U.S. government is serious about easing any potential bottlenecks.

    Similarly, he could finally get the government to tighten fuel-efficiency standards and encourage both Detroit and drivers to end decades of steadily increasing gas consumption. These kinds of steps would create a little headroom until new supplies do become available or threats like Iran's current leadership or the Iraqi insurgency fade.

    It's been done it before. For all the cracks about Jimmy Carter in a cardigan and his malaise speech, America did reduce its use of oil following the price shocks of the 1970s, and laid the groundwork for low energy prices in the 1980s and 1990s. But it would require spending political capital, and offending traditional White House allies, and that's something this president doesn't seem to want to do.

Teemade nimekirja