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Börsipäev 8- 9. oktoober

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  • Tere!

    Enne kui SB täna õhtuse USA turu huvipakkuvatest teemadest kirjutab paar uudist Euroopa firmade kohta, mis ka USA turul piisavalt aktiivselt kaubeldavad.

    UBS andis osta soovituse Vodafone aktsiale varasema hoia asemel. Viidati paranevatele marginaalidele, praegu 125 naela tasemel kaupleva aktsia hinnasiht tõsteti 147 naela juurde, täna on aktsia 1,42% plussis.

    Lehman Brothers kergitas Novartise reitingu tasemele overweight ja langetas samas Roche reitingu equal weight tasemele, aktsiad on liikunud vastavalt +0,9% ja  -1,98%. Ühtlasi alandati kogu Euroopa ravimisektori reiting neutral tasemele varasema positive asemel. Esimesena mainitud Shveitshi ravimikontsern on ka teatanud koostöölepingu sõlmimisest Jaapani ravimitootjaga Sankyo seedeeluundkonna ravimi ühiseks arendamiseks ja turule toomiseks. 

  • CNN money näitab dow futte +83 punkti, kas on tegu eksitusega?
  • Reaalajas hetkel +46, väärtuseks 9617 - Telerate andmetel
  • S&P500 ja Nasdaq futuurid kusjuures miinuses, aga aktiivsem kauplemine futuuridega algab siiski pisut hiljem, praegu USAs kell napilt 6 läbi ja suurem osa tradereid veel puhkab. Indikatsioon on juba enam-vähem kella 15 alates, USAs siis kell 8.
  • Ei tea millest see +46 emini dow futuuril on.
    Cbotil näitab bid 9620 ja offer 9623 ning viimane tehing 9621 ning muutus +4.
    Ehk sulgemishind oli siis eile 9617.
  • Londoni börsil on noteeringud pennides, nõnda maksab Vodafone hetkel 125,50 penni.
  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - WR Hambrecht alandab Lexar Media (LEXR) reitingu Hoia pealt Müü peale.

    - Filmitäht Arnold Schwarzenegger võitis meie aja järgi täna varahommikul lõppenud valimised ja on nüüd California osariigi kuberner. See võib tekitada veel veidi elevust alternatiivse energia sektoris. Üheks võimalikuks kasusaajaks on pisike Proton Energy (PRTN). Lähemalt siit: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030922/cgm042_1.html

    Fuelcellide suurimaks esindajaks on loomulikult Ballard Power (BLDP), mis on keskendunud just autotööstusele. Kui BLDP suudab rallida, siis teevad seda ka teised sama sektori aktsiad (FCEL, PLUG, CPST, SATC, IMCO, ACPW, APCC, IMGC, ITRI, ESLR, QTWW jt):

    - Lisasin LHV Pro all Tenet Healthcare (THC) teemal olulise kommentaari. Esmaspäeva õhtul tuli uudis selle kohta, et firma tegevust uuritakse seoses selle osalusega ühes New Orleansi haiglas. Põhimõtteliselt võib asi olla sarnane Alvarado looga, kuid turuosalised ei pistnud jooksu, vaid pigem ostsid. See on hea märk. Kui THC suudab ära võtta veel ka $15.50 taseme, siis on tõenäoline et jätkub jõudu ka suurema vastupanu murdmiseks.

    - Kalliste ravimite müüja Curative Health (CURE) andis täna hommikul päris tõsise kasumihoiatuse tuues põhjuseks hinnasurve ravimitootjate poolt. Koos CURE kukkumisega võivad alla tulla ka PHCC; CHMD ning OPTN, mis on lähemad konkurendid.

    - Barrons kirjutab täna hommikul pos tooniga loo Motorolast (MOT). Uus juht ning alles mõne päeva eest teatatud pooljuhtide üksuse spin-off võivad olla alles alguseks. Analüütikute sõnul on firma tehnoloogia poolest väga heas olukorras, kuid varasem juhtimine jättis soovida. Barrons pakub hinnasihiks $18.

    - CF First Boston tõstis Amazon.com (AMZN)-i hinnasihi $65 peale varasema $40 pealt. Nende arvates on firmal ees piisavalt palju pos. katalüsaatoreid ees, mis aktsia hinda ülespoole suruvad.

    - Gary B. Smith

    - RevShark:

    Money may not buy happiness, but it sure can makes life easier. Even if money is not your primary driving force, it is the only thing that matters when trying to understand the stock market. It always boils down to the same thing: the battle between greed for more money and fear of losing what we have.

    After a long bear market in which fear was the main emotion, we are back in an environment where greed is now the dominant driving force. Many market participants have struggled with this shift in emotions. The prudent behavior of the past, when fear was respected, suddenly is a losing strategy as the drive to rack up profits replaces the concern about preserving capital.

    The best traders are very good amateur psychologists. They understand the personality of the market at any given time. Right now, traders need to determine how long and to what degree market participants will be driven primarily by greed rather than fear. How much longer will the quest for profits keep this market moving upward?

    One of the reasons that greed is so rampant right now is that there are so many folks who were skeptical about this rally far too long. They weren't too worried about lagging the market at first, since they figured they would catch up when the inevitable reversals kicked in. However, the downtrends never came, and as the rally went on and on, their performance lagged more and more.

    The folks who have underperformed aren't fearful about losing money. As far as they are concerned, they already are losing money on a relative basis. They need to catch up, and that greed is a far stronger emotion than fear of doing even worse if they are overly aggressive late in the rally.

    The best recent example of how pervasive greed is at the moment is the intensity of the dip-buyers. Yesterday looked like a classic situation for some profit-taking to kick in. We had four straight days of gains, the dollar was weak, and there were good reasons for a pullback. But the dip-buyers were willing, ready and able. The morning weakness was bought, and we closed the day near the highs.

    We have a flat open shaping up at the moment. The dollar has stabilized, and overseas markets are generally OK. Earnings season kicks off with a report from Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) tonight. We still have not seen any major earnings warnings.

    Earnings are going to be the excuse this market uses for whatever it does in the next few weeks. We have to watch for the mind-set that is developing. Are expectations low or high? Are investors inclined to sell or buy good news?

    The market is sitting right at its recent highs. It is a critical technical juncture, and we will have to be especially vigilant right now for clues as to which way this market is heading. Don't underestimate the power of greed. The only real fear right now is the fear of being left behind.

     

     

  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Schering-Plough (SGP) reitingust tõsteti Thomas Weisel Partnersi poolt Outperform peale varasema Peer Perform pealt. Analüütikute arvates on tegemist oma operatsioone "ümber pöörava" firmaga ning Zetia-Zocori kombinatsiooni USA ravimiametile müügiloa saamikseks esitamine selle aasta lõpus on piisavalt hea katalüsaator. TWP hinnasihiks järgmise 12 kuu jooksul SGP-le on $23, mis annab tõusupotentsiaaliks üle 40%. Eelturul on SGP tõusnud $16.20 kanti.

    - Yahoo (YHOO) tulemused ületasid isegi pullide ootusi. Täna hommikul on päris mitu analüütikut firma aktsiate reitingut tõstmas. Ma usun, et päris palju karusid on mänginud sell-the news reaktsiooni peale.

    - Sonus Networks (SONS) tuli eile õhtul välja oma tulemustega, mis ületasid ootusi. Lisaks sellele teatas firma, et AT&T Wireless (AWE) on üle 10% suuruse osakaaluga firma klient. Selle peale tõusid aktsiad järelturul ligemale 10%.

    - Wall Street Journal kirjutab täna hommikul neg. maiguga loo Apple Computerist (AAPL). Peamiseks teesiks see, et iTunes ei pruugi olla see rahasampo, milleks turuosalised seda peavad. Aktsiad siiski tõusid selle peale $13 pealt $20 peale. Kes lähemalt tahab asjast lugeda, siis ka LHV Pro all on Apple teemal sõna võetud.

    -  initial jobless claims 382k vs 395k consensus 

    - Veel kirjutab WSJ loo telekomisektori uuest kullasoonest, milleks on VoIP ehk Voice over IP. Turu arvates on peamised kasusaajad SLNK, VRSO ning ka SONS.

    - Gary B. Smith

    - RevShark

    This is a market that simply refuses to quit. Even the pullback yesterday was exactly the sort of action the bulls like to see after five straight up days. Fighting the bulls has been an exercise in pain for the pessimistically inclined. Even when the bears have had a little taste of market weakness lately, it evaporates so quickly and completely that it's been impossible to profit from it.

    As earnings season kicks off, the bears' predominant hope now is that expectations are too high and that the reports will trigger selling. If Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) is any indication of what's to come the bears are going to continue to struggle. Yahoo! is trading up about 3% in the early going and has a number of upgrades already. The real test for the stock will come later in the day after the initial euphoria wears off, but at the moment there is no sign of any disappointment.

    The other major news in the early going is sales results for September from chain-store retailers. According to Street Account, of 23 retailers to report so far, 20 have surpassed estimates, one is reporting in-line and only Factory 2-U Stores (FTUS:Nasdaq) and Talbots (TLB:NYSE) have disappointed.

    If the consumer is struggling, as many bears argue, there are few signs of it in the retail world. We'll have to keep a close eye on this group today. The chart of the Retail HOLDRs (RTH:Amex) is similar to the charts of the major indices in that it's on the verge of a breakout to a new annual high.

    Let's look at the technical picture of the S&P 500. The big move in the index came from March to mid-June. It then based out and digested those gains until late August. In early September it broke to a new high, but then we had the sharp selloff to conclude the month and take us back into the summer congestion. October kicked off with five straight days of increases to take us back within a point or two of the recent high. We faltered slightly yesterday, and that brings us to this morning.

    Overall it's a very positive technical picture. The only real concern there is about the potential for new highs is that the bounce over the last six days is a bit too much too fast. The chances of a breakout to a new high that holds would be better if there was a stronger base to work from.

    The interesting thing is that dip-buyers seem so anxious to jump on pullbacks that the market simply doesn't have time to rest or base. The buyers want in and are afraid if they wait for lower prices or better technical entry points. they will be left on the sidelines sitting in cash.


    Futuurid; Naz 1.3% SP 0.73%

  • 09:18 ET TD Reuters reports TD in talks to merge U.S. broker with rival (30.20)
    Reuters reports the co is in talks to merge its U.S. brokerage with one of its rivals that would create one of the world's largest discount brokerages, a newspaper report said on Thursday. Since the summer, the co has considered the possible combinations with U.S. rivals which include AMTD, ET and SCH according to the Globe and Mail. A combination with any of the three of the possible companies would create a discount brokerage with at least six million customers and $200 billion in assets. a merger candidate could be recommended to the board as early as next Wednesday.
  • Turg on praegu ikka väga ilus, kui praegustel tasemetel suudetakse ka püsida päeva lõpuni, loob see hea eelduse tõusuks järgmisel nädalal.
  • Keegi küsis eilsete Päevapiltide all E-Loani (EELN) teemal ühe küsimuse. LHV Pro all on nüüd sellele vastus olemas.

    sB
  • - Suured indeksid kauplevad päeva parimate tasemete juures olle murdnud 52 nädala kõrgematele tasemetele pärast häid tulemusi Yahoo (YHOO)-lt ning üllatavalt häid tulemusi jaemüüjatelt

    - Enamus sektoreid on rohelises

    - Dollar näitab tugevust euro vastu

    - Lennusektor on välja murdnud uuele 52 nädala kõrgeimale tasemele (XAL). Morgan Stanley tõstis täna hommikul AMR-i ning CAL-i reitinguid.

    - Kulla ja Hõbeda indeks (XAU) kukkus allapoole 50 nädala liikuvat keskmist. Seda juba 2. korda viimase 5 kauplemissessiooni jooksul.

    - Genentechi (DNA) head tulemused lükkavad biotehnoloogiat (BTK) ülespoole.

    - Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC) jõudis uuele kõrgemale tasemele

    - Interneti neli ratsanikku YHOO (+11.8%), AMZN (+5%), EBAY (4.6%), IACI (+6.3%) pigistavad karusid ning osa mo-mo on liikunud ka sellistesse nimedesse nagu INSP (+11%), PCLN (+5.5%), NTES (+5.5%)

    - Oil Service (OSX) on punases pärast kasumihoiatusi sellistelt firmadelt nagu HAL ja TDW.

    - Jaemüüjad (RLX) liiguvad 52 nädala kõrgeimatele tasemetele.

    - Viimased IPO-d REDE ja ACUS ei leia erilist ostuhuvi.

    - Juniper (JNPR) avaldab oma tulemused täna õhtul. Turuosalised on pos. meelestatud.

    - Homme hommikul tulemused General Electricult (GE) ning India it-imelt Infosys Tech (INFY).

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