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Börsipäev 24.oktoober

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  • Elcoteq avaldas oma kolmanda kvartali majandustulemused. Käive oli €496,1M, kasum €5,1M ja EPS 0,31€.
    Analüütikud ootasid EPS 0,09€, käibeks €536M ja kasumiks €4,4M.

    Kuigi Elcoteq oli tugevalt kasumlikum, kui oodati jäi käive ennustustele alla ja Elcoteq on firma, millelt oodatakse käibekasvu. Aktsia oli mõni hetk tagasi 5% miinuses.
    Siiski on tähelepanuväärne, et firma kinnitas 2003.a. käibeprognoosiks €2,2Mld, mis on Elcoteqi varasem ennustus ja umbes samapalju ootavad käibeks ka analüütikud.
  • Google considers online auction of IPO shares -- FT
    Financial Times reports that Google is considering holding a massive online auction of shares early next year in an IPO that investment bankers predict could value the internet search-engine company at more than $15bln. An electronic auction would be designed to prevent a recurrence of the sort of financial scandals that have engulfed Wall Street since the collapse of the dotcom bubble. An auction would allow all investors to bid for Google's shares directly, rather than leave it to an investment bank to decide on the price of the shares and who should receive them... Though the company does not disclose financial information, its profits are growing rapidly and are reckoned to be running at an annual rate of about $150m on revenues of $500m.
  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - RBC Capital markets alandab täna hommikul Microsofti (MSFT) reitingut Sector Perform peale varasema Outperform pealt. MSFT avaldas eile õhtul tulemused, mis ületasid analüütikute konsensust. Siiski 2004. aasta EPS (eranings per share) prognoos jäi karvavõrra allapoole turu ootusi. Firma prognoosib, et teenib järgmisel aastal 1.10-1.12 dollarit aktsia kohta. Analüütikud ootasid 1.12 dollarit. Tulemuseks oli see, et MSFT kukkus järelturul 4%. Selline sendimäng tundub ilmselt tobedana iga selge mõistusega inimese jaoks, kuid teiselt poolt näitab see kuivõrd pingule on tõmmatud turuosaliste närvid.

    - Deutsche Bank alandab Lucenti (LU) reitingu Hoia pealt Müü peale. Hinnasihiks jääb $2. Firma sõnul kaupleb LU liiga kõrge valuatsiooni juures võrreldes konkurendi Norteliga (NT). Eile ei tahtnud LU Goldmani reitingu tõstmise peale eriti liikuda. See oli selge märk edasise ostuhuvi puudumisest. Tõenäoliselt tuleb veel alla.

    - Ainuke firma aktsiaid kattev analüütik alandas täna hommikul oma hinnasihti E-Loani (EELN) jaoks. Varasema $4.15 asemel ootab ta hinna jõudmist $3.15 juurde. Tema arvates tuleb 2004. aasta kasumi poole pealt nõrgem kui seda oli 2003. Milline üllatus? Neile, kes lugesid LHV Pro-d ilmselt mitte. Selle nädalavahetuse jooksul panen üles ka oma mõtted.

    - Tänased BusinessWeeki valikud on sellised firmad nagu PDA-de tootja Research in Motion (RIMM), toiduainete mürgisuse testimisega tegelev Strategic Diognostics (SDIX) ning biotehnoloogias tegev Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI). Lähemalt juba esmaspäeval.

    - Wall Street Journal kirjutab, et AT&T (T) ning Bellsouth (BLS) on jälle ühinemisläbirääkimistes. BLS püüdis T-d ka paari kuu eest ära osta, kuid siis jäi tehing katki. Hind polnud piisavalt  hea. Siis maksis T aktsia $22. Nüüd kaubeldakse sellega $19 juures.

    - Financial times kirjutab, et Google plaanib oma esmakordse aktsiaemissiooni teha elektroonilisel kujul nii, et ka väikeinvestoritel oleks võimalik soovitud kogus aktsiaid saada. Muidu toimuks asi ilmselt nii nagu see viimase 10 aasta jooksul ikka toimunud on - maaklerfirmade paremad kliendid (riskifondid) saaksid aktsiaid varem odavalt ning siis müüksid pärast avatud turul kallimalt maha. Google turuväärtuseks arvatakse praegu olevat $15 miljardit ning kuigi firma oma tulemusi ei avalda, peaks aastane kasum olema $150 mln kandis $500 mln käibe pealt. Kas on vabatahtlikke arvutama suhtarve?

    - Revshark:

    Good morning and welcome to the tale of two markets. The market is going up and the market is going down -- depending on what you are looking at. Earnings season has produced an interesting bifurcation in the big picture.

    Yesterday we saw the Nasdaq struggle because of some poor earnings in technology stocks while the DJIA and S&P 500 held fairly well. A number of technology stocks and other highfliers took some hard hits while other sectors such as cyclical stocks and home builders acted well. Many of the momentum darlings have suddenly been show to be more style than substance and investors are now seeking out the safety of solid earnings numbers.

    Although the indices weren't that bad on the surface yesterday there clearly were signs of a shift out of technology stocks and into other sectors. Many investors are literally cashing in their chips -- semiconductor chips, that is. Look for this transitional action to continue, especially after the lackluster earnings report and guidance from Microsoft (MSFT: Nasdaq)

    Microsoft's report wasn't terrible. It beat by the traditional penny and raised guidance, but there were some issues such as the shrinking backlog of business. At least one broker, RBC, has downgraded the stock to sector perform from outperform. Other losers this morning in the technology sector include Zoran (ZZRAN:Nasdaq), Scansource (SCSC:Nasdaq), Scientific Atlanta (SFA:NYSE) and Utstarcom (UTSI:Nasdaq).

    The best way to make money in the market is to catch new themes and trends as they begin to emerge. For much of the rally the theme was 1999-style momentum in technology and biotechnology stocks. Traders piled into anything that was moving regardless of fundamentals.

    We now seem to be undergoing a transition where there is much greater sensitivity to valuation. Traders are becoming more cautious and selective and are focusing on stocks that have the good numbers to support them. I believe the theme that is now emerging is GARP -- growth at reasonable prices. Look for stocks with good year-over-year growth and reasonable PE's.

    When momentum is hot, like it has been over the last few months, you can throw money at any stocks that are moving and make money. It is now going to be much more important to be selective and pick the sorts of stocks that have solid numbers to support their valuations.

    Overseas, Tokyo attempted to bounce after a whopping loss yesterday but ended up flat on the day. Sony (SNE:NYSE ADR) issued a earnings warning that surprised the Nikkei in view of solid performance from other electronic companies such as NEC (NIPNY:Nasdaq ADR).

    European markets were mixed to slightly down and we are looking at a similar open here. Microsoft is weighing on technology but there are some pockets of strength. The market looks vulnerable to the downside and it looks like it would be prudent to stay patient on long-side buys.

    It's likely to be a mishmash of action today. The best results are likely to come from focusing on individual stocks as the market transitions to new leadership.

     

    Futuurid: Naz -0.95%,  SP -0.52%


    sB

     

  • 08/10/2003 kirjutatakse, et EELN on allahinnatud juba praeguste tasemete juures ...
  • Rick,

    ilmselt ongi, kui arvestada hinnasihti. Praegu on küsimus aktsiate võimalikult odavalt omandamises.

    sB
  • See on firmat katva ainukese analüütiku siht, mitte minu oma.

    sB
  • Bettie palju on Sinu siht EELN puhul kui saladus pole ?
  • ca 100% tõusuruumi praegustelt tasemetelt. Keegi mäletab, kuidas analüütikud pakkusid E*trade (ET) hinnasihtideks 12 kuu eest veel $3-4? Mulle meeldib idee internetis tegutsevast finantsasutusest.

    sB
  • Legendaarne Barry Diller (InterActiveCorp) ostis E-Loani konkurendi LendingTree (TREE) sellise preemia eest for nothing? Dont think so.

    sB
  • Rick12, LHV Proga liitumine tuleks sulle kasuks, seal on enamustele küsimustele, mis sa foorumites küsinud oled vastused olemas.

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