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Börsipäev 5.november - lahendame mõistatusi

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  • MSFT on välja pannud 250 000$ suuruse preemia inimesele, kes annab infot, mis viib SoBig või MSBlasti autorite tabamiseni.

    WANTED, dead or alive :)
  • Seleta l2hemalt ,mis on SoBig voi MsBlast
  • Yukose aktsia -7%, Venemaa loodusvarade ministeerium tühistas firma naftaotsimisload, kuna suur osa aktsiatest on külmutatud.
  • CSCO-ainuke asi mida turud täna ootavad.Pidu võiks jätkuda 0,17 ja 5 pealt.
  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Financial Times räägib täna hommikul, et Schering-Plough (SGP) teatas oma senise finantsjuhi (CFO - chief financial officer) lahkumisest. Jack Wyszomierski oli üks viimaseid vana juhtkonna liikmeid, kes uue juhi Fred Hassani pardaletulekuni oma tööpostil püsinud oli. Uueks finantsjuhiks saab kuuldavasti Bob Bertolini, kes kuni praeguseni oli PriceWaterhouseCooper-i (PwC) farmaatsiasektori konsultandiks.

    Artikli toon on üldiselt positiivne. Tuuakse välja, et Fred Hassan ei jäta ühtegi kivi ümber pööramata, viimaks firma uuele tõusule.

    18. novembril toimub Schering-Plough (SGP) analüütikute päev ning räägitakse, et sealt peaks tulema üht-teist head.
     
    http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1066565631600&referrer_id=yahoo&ft_ref=yahoo1&segid=01285

    - National Semi (NSM) tõstis oma selle kvartali käibekasvu prognoosi. Seda üpris marginaalselt, kuid olulised olid juhtkonna kommentaarid, mis räägivad tellimuste suurenemisest. Keegi esmaspäevast SIA (Semi Industry Association) uudist mäletab?

    - Merrill Lynch kinnitab oma Müü reitingut Nvidia (NVDA) aktsiatele. Nende sõnul võib firma neljapäeval prognoosidega toime tulla (isegi ületada), kuid turuosa kaotus konkurendile ATI Tech (ATYT), turu üldine suund notebookide poole ning nõrk XboX-i müük ei luba tulevikult eriti positiivseid uudiseid oodata. Pean märkima, et ca kuu eest tuli Merrill välja samasuguse analüüsiga ning see omas mõju vaid tolle päeva esimesel tunni.

    - Eile teatas Novell (NOVL), et ostab ära Suse Linuxi ning saab IBM (IBM)-i käest $50 mln rahasüsti. CFSB analüütikud arutlevad uudise mõju üle Microsofti (MSFT) aktsiatele. Suse on teiseks suurim Linuxi arendaja (21% turuosa) Red Hati (RHAT, 41% turuosa) taga. Analüütikute sõnul tekitab Novell + Suse Windowsi Serverite jaoks uue ning üpris tõsise konkurendi. Nad ei usu, et turg võiks uudist väga negatiivselt võtta, kuid MSFT-i jaoks elu kergemaks ei lähe. Ka RHAT kukkus eile, kuna turuosalised usuvad, et Suse + NOVL + IBM peaks tulevikus pakkuma suuremat konkurentsi.

    - Ivanhoe Energy (IVAN), pisike energiasektori tegutsev firma, mis on praktiliselt üleöö saanud kauplejate (ka LHV) lemmikuks, teatas täna hommikul võimalikust liikumisest Iraaki. Aktsiad on selle uudise peale 10% plussis.

    - Täna õhtul Cisco (CSCO). Kas on kedagi, kes ei oota häid tulemusi? Mis juhtus siis.

    - Tundub, et InterActiveCorp (IACI), üks neljast vaprast internetiratsanikust on andnud täna hommikul kasumihoiatuse. Aktsia on eelturul 7-8% miinuses. Lisaks sellele alandas oma prognoose eile õhtul ka Priceline.com (PCLN). Mis toimub online reisisektoris?

    - Gary B. Smith

    - ReVShark

    The Nasdaq is up an astounding 47% so far this year and the S&P 500 an impressive 20%. After such huge moves, isn't there an unusually high amount of risk in the markets and shouldn't we be especially cautious?

    Not necessarily. Many market participants make the mistake of thinking that simply because stocks or markets have gone up a lot that there is a higher chance of losing money. The risk of loss comes not from buying expensive stocks or markets, but from not having an effective trading plan. You can lose money at the lows just as easily at the highs if you don't know what you are doing.

    We have been hearing a cacophony of shrill warnings lately about the dangers of another speculative bubble. Yes, maybe this is another bubble and it can be very dangerous, but if you know what you are doing the wild action of a bubble can be extremely profitable.

    Not everyone lost money when the market topped out in 2000. There were many traders with effective exit strategies who were able to hold on to some very hefty gains. Some folks got rich and some folks got slaughtered. The folks who were hurt the worst were those who bought the argument that this time things are different and that the market will continue to go up unabated. Their investment strategy amounted to nothing more than blind hope.

    I guarantee you that things aren't different this time. Sooner or later this market will roll over and go through a very nasty correction. I have no idea when that will happen but it is as sure to occur as my dog, Bandit, begging for a pig ear each morning when I sit down at my desk.

    Don't let the certainty of some future correction keep you from making money today. Be like Buffet and manage your risk by having a plan and knowing what you are doing. For most folks, that simply means not letting losses pile up when the market rolls over. Have a strategy for protecting your capital. If all you are relying on is hope that the new bull market has started, you might as well just send a check to the traders who have a plan, because sooner or later they are going to take your cash.

    In many ways trading this market feels much like walking the high wire. The danger is high but the rewards of successfully navigating are also high. There continue to be some very good trading opportunities out there, and there is strong momentum and plenty of stocks that are moving. Despite the red indices yesterday we had over 800 stocks hitting new annual highs.

    I watch the new-highs list very carefully because it's an excellent indicator of momentum. Stocks don't hit new highs unless there are folks ready, willing and able to chase them higher. When the new-highs list starts to contract, that is when we should be increasingly concerned about the potential for the market to roll over.

    If you are playing the momentum game -- like I am -- manage your risk by knowing what you are doing and having a plan. If you do that, then this market is no more risky than it was a year ago.

    In the early going we have a mildly negative open shaping up. Financials and drug stocks are pressuring European markets a bit. The dollar is mixed, oil is up and gold is up. We have factory orders and ISM Services numbers due at 10 a.m. EST. As the day progresses the focus should turn to the Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) and Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq) earnings reports, which are due after the close tonight.

    Will the dip buyers take advantage of a weak open or will profit-taking accelerate? The dip buyers have been a very tenacious group and I'm leery of underestimating their resolve.


    Futuurid: Naz -0.21% SP -0.29%


    sB

  • LHV Pro all üks idee Kiireks kauplemiseks.
  • Lülitan kõik kolm lülitit sisse, siis pole vaja kontrollidagi. ;)
  • stocker, pane oma vastus uude foorumisse kah....
  • Kull see Mr. Market on ikka helge - soovisid siin mingid vennad paar paeva tagasi osta suure koguse SGP aktsiaid @14,50 ja naed, nuud ongi see voimalus neil kaes. Polegi vaja mingeid erikokkuleppeid.

    Tahendab see seda, et praegu on suht lollikindel ostukoht?
  • Ja Elisa on ka nospli allapoole keeranud...
  • kas keegi teab kus ch league tulemustele saaks kihla vedada
  • Mida arvate Nortel Networkist (NT) praegu? kas seda hoida või mitte? Tehniline pilt praegu eriti ilus ei ole. Milline seis võiks olla kolme-nelja kuu pärast?
  • Cisco Systems: Q1 Earnings Preview 21.48 -0.10 Cisco Systems is scheduled to publish Q1 results after the close Wednesday. Reuters Research prints consensus EPS at $0.15 on revenue of $4.85B (+0.1% year-over-year) and Q2 at $0.16 on $5.04B (+6.9% year-over-year); F04 at $0.64 on $20.32B (+7.6% year-over-year) and F05 at $0.74 on $22.71B (+11.8% year-over-year).

    Enterprise
    CSCO derives almost 80% of sales from enterprise customers, and half of its sales from North America, where early evidence indicates enterprise spending was muted in the quarter ended Sept 30. The latest U.S. GDP data indicate business activity has since picked up. As a result, we would expect guidance to be positive but with limited visibility.

    EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa), which accounts for over 30% of sales, is also likely to post weak results due to seasonality.

    Asia-Pacific, 10% of sales, is likely to report strong growth, driven by China. Japan, 7% of sales, is also likely to post good growth on improving market conditions.

    Consumer and Small Office/Home Office
    Linksys provides CSCO access to the large and rapidly growing consumer and SOHO networking markets. Back-to-school was unexpectedly strong, and early data suggest the SOHO market is responding favorably to the Linksys price point. This should translate into strong top-line growth for Linksys. Of concern is the impact Linksys sales will have on CSCO's gross margin. Early evidence and guidance suggest mild downward pressure. Management has maintained tight expense control on the SG&A line and this will help to partially offset the decline on the gross margin line.

    Valuation
    Shares trade at 7.4x F04E revenue of $20.32B and 6.6x F05E revenue of $22.71B; 33.5x F04E EPS of $0.64 and 29.0x F05E EPS of $0.74. On an inverted DCF/EVA basis, CSCO's valuation implies low 20% revenue growth over the next 10 years and over 1000bps in margin expansion, making CSCO a $104B revenue company at the end of the forecast period with high-20% net margins.

    Summary
    The implied growth rate required to support current valuation is high relative to CSCO's size but attainable over the next three to five years, driven by acceleration in global enterprise spending, and Linksys, which gets CSCO into a whole new space with a multi-billion dollar revenue potential. Over the long-term, the additional load placed on networks by the networked home will help form a new wave of spending on enterprise-level systems. But it remains to be seen whether management can shape the market opportunities and competitive landscape to deliver low 20% revenue growth beyond the five-year mark.

    CSCO is already at the high end on gross margin. The 1000bps in margin expansion will likely come primarily from continuing tight expense control against rising enterprise sales and from Linksys.

    CSCO's premium valuation reflects the company's strong cash generation and dominant market position. Near-term, macroeconomic trends and business momentum favor CSCO. There is limited upside provided CSCO delivers at least low-teens growth and stable margins. Barring a deceleration to low single-digits growth in the out-years, and operating margins compression, investors will continue to afford CSCO shares its premium valuation.--Ping Yu, Briefing.com

  • Cisco tulemused tulid prognoosidest paremad, aktsia on järelturul pea dollari e. 5% plussis - korralikud numbrid, kuid homne suund otsustatakse peale conference calli.

    16:08 ET Cisco Systems beats by $0.02 (CSCO) 21.80 +0.22: Reports Q1 (Oct) earnings of $0.17 per share, $0.02 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.15; revenues rose 5.3% year/year to $5.10 bln vs the $4.85 bln consensus.

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