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Börsipäev 14. november

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  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:


    - Farma jätkas tõusu täna hommikul Euroopas. USA President G. W. Bush püüab Kongressile survet avaldada, et lastaks läbi hulk seadusi, mille kohaselt suurendataks 2x vanurite ning invaliidide tervishoiu peale kululutatavaid summasid.

    Eile õhtul küsis üks farmaatsiasektorit kattev turukommentaator fondijuhtide käest, miks farma eile rallis. Vastused:

    "Very stupid people."

    "Rotation into the drugs in anticipation of higher interest rates, and a technical bottom."

    "Riding on Pfizer's coattails, plus rotation out of retails like WMT, TGT into more stable names."

    "Medicare reform is very close. Market looking for an excuse to rally these guys."


    - SG Coweni analüütikud langetavad AT&T Wireless (AWE)-i reitingu Outperform peale varasema Strong Buy pealt. Nende arvates on viimase aja aktsiate kukkumine palju probleeme sisse diskonteerinud, kuid investorid ei näe paranemist veel mitme kvartali jooksul.

    - CFSB analüütikud tõstavad Dell Computeri (DELL) hinnasihi $43.50 peale varasema $36 pealt.

    - Piper Jaffray analüütikud langetavad Wal-Marti (WMT) reitingu Market Perform peale varasema Outperform pealt. Hinnasihiks $56.

    - NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) üks suurimaid spetsialistifirmasid Labranche (LAB) teatab täna hommikul oma senise tegevjuhi lahkumisest. Spetsialistifirmad on viimasel ajal väga suure surve all olnud seoses kriitikaga nende tegevuse suhtes. Kuna nad kontrollivad kauplemispõrandal informatsiooni saabuvate tehingute kohta on neil võimalik selle pealt ka hästi teenida. Mõnes mõttes siiski ebaeetiline.

    Tulemuseks võib olla NASDAQ-i taolise elektroonilise süsteemi loomine, mis kõrvaldaks spetsialistifirmad. Nüüd siis ongi investoritel teha panus a) sellele, et NYSE otsustab traditsiooni jätkata ning osta praegu mitmete aastate madalamate tasemete juures kauplevaid spetsialistifirmade aktsiaid b) osta hoopis elektrooniliste turutegijate nagu näiteks Knight Trading (NITE) või Instinet (INGP) aktsiaid, sest nemad võidavad esimeste kadumisest kõige rohkem.

    - PPI 0.8% vs 0.2% consensus; core PPI 0.5% vs 0.1% consensus

    - Retail Sales -0.3% vs -0.2% consensus; ex-auto 0.2% vs 0.2% consensus


    - Tehnilise analüüsi isake Dick Arms arvab:

    One has to be impressed with the move yesterday in Pfizer (PFE). The increase in volume and the big trading range produced what I like to call a power box. It represents a dramatic change in character for the stock. My suggestion to buy this stock back in July was premature, but we are now seeing a new buy signal that looks believable. After such a big jump yesterday, it may pull back enough to allow entry at a better level, but the stock looks higher in the longer term.

    - ReVshark:

    The most difficult thing about trading is that no matter how good you are you will still make a steady stream of mistakes. Unless you are psychic there is no way to avoid unexpected news, trades that go awry and just plain old bad luck.

    The secret to success in the market is not particularly mysterious. You simply must persevere. Just keep on plugging away. Pound the rock day after day after day and eventually it will break. Shrug off the steady flow of errors and mistakes and just keep working at it. If you do that long enough you will succeed.

    However, the stock market is different in one regard. You can't expend continuous effort unless you have capital to work with. It doesn't matter how hard or how long you work if you don't have cash that allows you to play the game. Above all else you must protect your capital. You can not let the inevitable errors take such a toll that they jeopardize your ability to keep on working.

    The first thing a novice in the market should do is make sure he has an approach that errs on the side of protecting your capital. That means acknowledging mistakes quickly and taking action. Quite often you will make a mistake in thinking you've made a mistake but the important thing is that you keep that capital safe and secure so that you can keep on playing the game.

    How is the playing field shaping up this morning? As we enter the final day of a choppy the week the question we have to contemplate is which team has the capacity to break this market one way or the other. We are in a nice tight trading range and are gearing up for a move one way or the other.

    Despite steady positive economic news, we had a couple of weak days to start the week. Investors were feeling a tad nervous and then we bounced straight up all day on Wednesday to reassure the bulls. But there was no immediate follow-through yesterday. We struggled and ended up in the red although breadth was positive and the small-cap indices closed in the green. We are stuck without a clear breakdown or breakout.

    Let's take a look at the chart of the S&P 500. So far in November we have temporally breached the 1060 market a couple of times and have closed just under that mark at least four times. We have fallen as low as 1043 a couple of times on an intraday basis but have reversed each time. So the trading range is quite well developed at 1060 to 1043 or so.

    So which way are we most likely to break? The biggest positive for the bulls is that we have spent most of our time at the top of the recent trading range. We have been hitting close to that 1060 market steadily but haven't quite been able to break it.

    One of the basic rules of technical analysis is that the more often a support or resistance level is tested the weaker it becomes. With each attempt to crack the key level the folks who are resisting grow a bit more worried and the attackers grow a bit more bold.

    So watch that 1060 level. If it breaks, it should trigger some short-covering and bring in the breakout buyers. Based on the technical pattern the smart bet is an upside resolution of the current trading range.

    In the early going we have rather flat action again. Overseas markets were generally positive, led by pharmaceuticals. The dollar is weak again and gold is trading up to the 396 level. We have economic data this morning including PPI and retail sales, which should help establish the tone. The Michigan Sentiment Poll at 9:45 a.m. EST will also be carefully watched.

    Futuurid: Nax -0.14% SP -0.09

    sB

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