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Börsipäev 8 - 9. dets.

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  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Paljude kauplejate poolt jälgitud S&P500 1060 tase on tänase hommikuse seisuga murtud. Futuurid kauplevad 1058 juures ülevaate kirjutamise ajal. See toob turule julgemad karud ja viib välja hulga ostjaid.

    - Sandisk (SNDK), suur flash-mäludel põhinevate seadmete tootja, kinnitas oma 2003. aasta käibeprognoosi. See võib veidi jõudu anda ka väiksematele konkurentidele nagu Lexar Media (LEXR) ning M-Sys Flash (FLSH).

    Lisaks sellele on JP Morgan täna hommikul välja positiivse nupuga Lexari (LEXR) teemal. Nende arvates on viimase aja suur kukkumine väga soodsaks sisenemiskohaks. LEXR kaupleb hetkel ca 25x järgmise aasta kasumit aktsia kohta.

    - Terayon (TERN) kinnitab oma jooksva kvartali käibe-ja kasumiprognoose.

    - Merrill Lynch tõstab täna hommikul Jetblue Airways (JBLU)-i reitingu Neutraalse pealt Osta peale. Nende arvates on JBLU aktsiate 45% kukkumine viimase paari kuu jooksul piisav, et muuta aktsiad odavateks. Hetkel kauplevad need 24x järgmise aasta kasumit aktsia kohta. Hinnasihiks $32.

    - IBM (IBM) teatas, et on teinud järjekordseid edusamme nanotehnoloogias. Mõnikord võivad sellised uudised tekitada huvi ka sektori väiksemate esindajate juures nagu viimase aja lemmik NGEN.

    - SoundView tõstab Microsofti (MSFT) reitingu Neutraalse pealt Outperform peale. Põhjuseks positiivsed infokillud Gartner/SoundView Fall Symposium IT Spending Survey-st, mis näitavad, et nõudlus tarkvaratoodete järele on jällegi elavnemas. Hinnasihiks määravad analüütikud MSFT-i jaoks $33.

    Peab mainima, et MSFT regeeris sellel üpris leige pooleprotsendis tõusuga. Räägib selget keelt müüjate olemasolust.

    - Barrons kirjutab täna hommikul päris negativselt sellistest tehnoloogiafirmadest nagu SNDK, LNUX ning XYBR

    SNDK puhul räägitakse selles, et praegused hinnatasemed diskonteerivad sisse 25% p.a käibetõusu järgmise 10 aasta jooksul.

    LNUX on Linuxi-play, mis tegelikult lahkus Linuxi-ärist juba kahe aasta eest.

    XYBR on huvitavaid kaasaskantavaid PC-d tootev firma, mis siiski pole nende pealt kunagi sentigi teeninud. Investoritele tundub siiski meeldivat kontsept.

    - Wells Fargo alandab Motorola (MOT) reitingu Hoia peale varasema Osta asemel. Nende arvates on firma õiglane väärtus $8-17.50 aktsia kohta. Pärast pooljuhtide osakonna spin-offi meentuab firma järjest enam Nokiat (NOK)

    - Gary B. Smith:


    - ReVshark:

    Since March the best way to make money in this market has been to stay long and strong and focus on technology and small-cap stocks. Last week we saw some signs that the environment may be changing and that adaptation should be considered. One of the great certainties of the stock market is that the best way to make money will constantly change. There is no single style of trading or investing that will work equally well in all market environments. The key is to know when to seek a new remedy to the market conundrum and amend your approach.

    Are we at one of those key turning points now that requires us to adapt and change to avoid the pain of new evils? The bears have been warning for some time that an ugly fall is imminent, but the market has continued to hold up fairly well.

    Although the indices didn't fully reflect it, there was some substantial weakness in various parts of the market last week. Most notable were semiconductors, education stocks and many of the recent small-cap momentum favorites. The question for us to contemplate is whether this is an indication of the start of a substantial change in character, or just healthy profit-taking that will provide a more bullish atmosphere to end the year.

    One of most worrisome things for the bulls has been the lack of positive reaction to good economic news. We have not been seeing much upside, despite confirmation that things are looking better for the economy. Last week the news stopped being so positive. Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) had a mediocre update, and then the jobs report was poorer than expected.

    A healthy market could easily shrug off such things, but the bearish argument is that we are priced for perfection and it is nearly impossible for the market to sustain its momentum. No one is seriously arguing that the economy isn't improving. The argument is over to whatever degree it has already been priced in.

    On top of the valuation argument, market participants are worried over continued weakness in the dollar. Overnight the euro hit yet another new high against the dollar. The yen also gained strength. Gold, which is the favorite trading vehicle of many who are betting against the dollar, continues to rally. Spot gold is trading up to the $409 level this morning.

    The currency issues makes tomorrow's Federal Open Market Committee decision on interest rates particularly interesting. No one expects rates to change, but there is much speculation over whether there will be an indication that rate hikes may come sooner than previously thought. The thinking is that such an indication may help stem the bleeding in the dollar. Higher interest rates will make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors.

    The struggle is keeping the Monday morning optimist at bay this morning. We have a weak open shaping up. Overseas markets are weak across the board with Japan leading to the downside with a loss of more than 3%. In Europe, Germany continues to be the laggard. We have a tricky week coming up. The focus will be on the dollar and the Fed. The chip stocks should be the best indicator of where we are heading in the short term. If that group can turn, we may see a decent bounce.

     

    Futuurid: Naz-0.39% SP-0.25%

    sB

     

  • NB! LHV Pro all on kõik kauplemisideed värskete kommentaaridega turgutatud.
  • Kristjan, kas idee nr 3 (@14.57) kehtib ikka ostusoovitus, ka peale 0.5 USD läbi taseme vajumist?
  • Master, väga hea kodeering!

    Aga seni kuni oleme .40 tasemest kõrgemal on idee püsiv.
  • Nii.....nüüd Nasdaq roheliseks....ja nii aasta lõpuni....karud minge metsa...

    Tervitades,

    Vana Karu
  • LIOX seisi terve päeva ning niikui olin ära ostnud, kukkus 3-4% MOTT
  • Master, hea eeldus põrkeks praegustelt tasemetelt ikkagi.
  • Teisipaeval turul muugipaev?
    Vaga populaarses Average Joe finaalsaates kaotas NYC daytrader - keskmine joe - ilusa tudruku uhele hiljem mangu toodud "pretty-face- joe'le" - kurb uudis Wall Streetile?:)

    26-aastane collegeboy, kes elab veel vanemate juures ja kelle pea ei tundunud koige lahtisem olema, voitis 27-aastast NYC miljonarist daytraderit ja firmaomanikku...Raske valik tudruku jaoks, aga mina olin rahul:)

    Kui noorteparaselt valjenduda, siis very cool and sexy saatesari!


  • To spunk123:

    ...good for NYC daytrader.
  • EPS tuli oodatust madalam, muu oli päris OK.

    Eile järelturul oli päris korralik müügipaanika, ööga on pilt veidi parem ja praegu näidatakse miinuseks -3.5%.
  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Texas Instruments (TXN) rääkis eile õhtul päris positiivseid asju oma jooksva kvartali prognoosidest. Käive peaks kasvama kokku 4-9% võrreldes eelmise kvartaliga. See on märkimisväärselt parem kui varasem -2% -7% vahemik. Eriti hea tundub äri olevat pooljuhtide segmendis, mille prognoose tõsteti kõige enam. Oluline on ka mainida, et nõudlus kasvab oluliselt ka väljaspool wirelessi.

    Kuigi kõik oli ilus, siis TXN aktsia tõusis järelturul vaid paar protsenti. See reaktsioon räägib paljuski enda eest. Seda vähemalt lühiajaliselt.

    Vaatasin hommikul TXN-i suurima kliendi Nokia liikumist Helsingis ja ka see erilist optimismi ei tekitanud. Esimese paari minuti jooksul said ostjad otsa ning siis liikus aktsia allapoole.

    - Pfizeri (PFE) graafik näeb väga huvitav välja. Kui $34.50 tase murtakse, peaks see olema positiivseks märgiks kogu sektori jaoks.

    - Schering-Plough (SGP) jaoks on $17 tase päris oluliseks. Eile õhtul teatas firma väga positiivsed III faasi katsetulemused Noxafili toime kohta. Tegemist on seenpõletikke raviva ravimiga, mille turupotentsiaaliks on circa $500 mln.

    - Wall Street Journal räägib täna hommikul SARS-i tagasituleku võimalusest. The World Health Organization-i teadlased usuvad, et Hiina loomaturgudelt alguse saanud haigus võib seal ikka veel pesitseda.

    - Sohu.com (SOHU) finantsjuht teatas oma lahkumisest. Aktsiad on uudise peale 1% jagu miinuses. Kas Aasia internetiaktsiad on juba ülemüüdud?

    - Drugstore.com (DSCM) kinnitas oma Q4 prognoose. Tegemist on päris huvitava pisikese online-ravimimüüjaga.

    - Goldman Sachs teatas, et tõstab General Motorsi (GM) reitingu In-Line pealt Outperform peale. Hinnasihiks $60. Millal te viimane kord nägite reitingu tõstmist autosektoris? Kaks aastat tagasi?

    - Tööriistatootja Stanley Works (SWK) tõstis oma Q4 prognoose ning sai selle eest ka Raymond Jamesi käest uueks reitinguks Strong Buy varasema Market Perform asemel.
    See on hea uudis ka konkurendi Black&Deckeri (BDK) jaoks.

    - SG Cowen teatas, et tõstab Protein Design Labsi (PDLI) reitingu Strong Buy peale varasema Outperform asemel. Aktsia tõusis eelturul selle peale pea 6% ning sellest tulenevalt valisin selle oma tänahommikuseks lühikeseks müügi kandidaadiks. Ma ei ole turu suhtes väga optimistlikult meelestatud ning usun, et PDLI võiks olenemata reitingu tõstmisest alla tulla. Tihedad stopid.


    short pdli 17.15-17.25 vahelt

    - Gary B. Smith:


    - ReVshark:

    Although the indices posted a very solid day, many traders were unhappy with the action in their particular stocks. The rally yesterday had a very different character than those we have seen quite often over the last six months. The leading groups weren't the usual momentum favorites such as semiconductors, software, biotechnology or even retailers. Yesterday's leaders were found in mining, steel, gas and oil, shipping, railroads and chemicals.

    Banks and financials were one of the more traditional groups that had a good day, but if you were looking for leadership, the picture was very different than it had been in recent months. All you have to do is look at the DJIA and compare the weak performance of Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) to the strong move in General Motors (GM:NYSE) to understand the change in character.

    If you want a more detailed understanding of how the character of the market action is changing, one of the best things to do is study the list of new highs. Yesterday we had a total of 474 new highs. Of those, 276 were on the NYSE and 139 on the Nasdaq. That alone tells you that there is a shift away from the technology stocks that dominate the Nasdaq and into other groups.

    If you take a closer look, there are less than 20 "technology"-related stocks on the list of new highs. Only three were in the semiconductors sector, one was in the Internet group and four were in the hardware sector, including Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq). On the other hand, there were over 93 banks and finance companies hitting new highs as well as 77 energy-related companies.

    So if you have been focusing on small-cap technology and the traditional momentum stocks, which had been the big winners in recent months, it is very likely you were disappointed with the action yesterday.

    That brings us to today and the million-dollar question: Is this a lasting change in character? Should we be dumping our technology holdings and moving into steel and shipping stocks? It certainly makes sense to have some exposure to cyclical stocks, especially since there are some attractive charts to be found. It is likely that there will be some continuation of momentum in these stocks, but if you are used to playing hot technology stocks, you will probably be a bit disappointed with the level of momentum. These stocks generally don't have the same upward potential of their technology cousins.

    The bigger issue is how far this market can go without more vigorous leadership from technology and the traditional momentum favorites. I'd say not too far. If the rally doesn't broaden out to other key groups very quickly, we will have to be very cautious. Mining, shipping and steel stocks can only take us so far.

    Not only do we have to consider a change in the character of market leadership, but we will also have to deal with a possible change in the character of the FOMC's position on future interest rate hikes. No one is expecting an interest rate increase today, but the market will be very interested in whether the FOMC changes its wording regarding rates staying low for a "considerable period."

    The consensus view is that there will be modification to that language. If there is, how is the market going to deal with that? It is going to depend on what exactly is said, but the market seems to be aware that rates can't stay low forever. One positive consequence of interest rate increases is that they may help shore up the dollar. Interest rate hikes are a clear indication that the economy is improving, which isn't all bad.

    One thing we can be certain about it is that we are likely to see some heavy volatility following the FOMC decision at 2:15 p.m. EST. We often see some very quick swings as market participants digest the news. We are going to have to be especially careful this afternoon. With the DJIA steaming toward the 10,000 level, a lot of folks will be thinking about what happened a week ago when the Nasdaq breached the 2000 level. We held that important psychological level for just a few minutes before the profit-taking kicked in and took us straight down.

    We have a positive open shaping up. Overseas markets are up solidly and early indications are good.

     

    Futuurid: Naz0.42% SP0.26%


    sB

  • Red,

    veidi pikem jutt REMC kohta:

    09:15 ET

    REMEC (REMC): 10.66 -0.40 (pre-market) After the close Monday, REMEC published Q3 EPS of ($0.07) on revenue of $104.1MM (+75.1% Y/Y) vs. Reuters Research consensus at ($0.02) on revenue of $96.1MM.

    Guided for Q4 revenue of $109.3-114.5MM (+5-10% Q/Q) vs. consensus at $102.1MM and breakeven vs. consensus EPS at $0.03. F05 revenue is expected to come in at $500MM (+31.9-34.0% Y/Y) vs. consensus at $438.2MM (+15.6-17.5% Y/Y); each quarter expected to be profitable. Full year net income margin expected to come in around the mid-single digits or ~$0.42 vs. consensus at $0.32.

    Performance
    Revenue. REMC beat consensus revenue estimate by 8.3% despite a difficult pricing environment. Management is seeing good recovery within telecom infrastructure market (seeing increasing demand from each of top 10 telecom infrastructure OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) but ASPs (average selling prices) remain under pressure. Book-to-bill came in at a record 2.3:1. Signaled intent to hold firm on ASPs. Q3 sales increased 75.1% Y/Y to $104.1MM. Commercial sales grew 105% Y/Y and Defense sales rose 14%.

    Margins. Gross margin improved 1050 bps Y/Y to 22.0% due to improved economies of scale but declined 230 bps Q/Q as a result of pricing pressures.

    Narrowed operating loss. SG&A as a percent of sales improved 530 bps Y/Y and 310 bps Q/Q to 12.4%. R&D increased 37.5% Y/Y to $12.16MM, and declined as a percent of sales by 320 bps Y/Y to 11.7%. Expect management to maintain firm grip on costs.

    Valuation
    On an inverted DCF/EVA basis, assuming 20% operating margins, REMC's valuation implies that management must grow revenue in the low- to mid-teens range per year for the eight years beginning F06 to support current valuation.

    On a price multiples basis, REMC trades at 1.8x F04 revenue of $366.2MM (+48.5% Y/Y) and 1.5x F05 revenue of $438.2MM (+19.7% Y/Y); 24.8x F04 EPS of $0.43 and 18.4x F05 EPS of $0.58. Analysts will substantially raise estimates.

    Summary
    After hours sell-off clearly unwarranted. Near-term bottom-line miss clouds fact that industry recovery is under way and, as noted in Q3 Preview, management is executing well. Substantial upside from current levels if management achieves operating margin in the mid-20% range (implied growth rate drops to 8%). We believe management can achieve operating margin beyond 20% over the long-term on tight cost control coupled with improved economies of scale and ASPs. Very attractively priced for long-term investors; >50% upside on a P/S basis. Sell-off provides traders with short-term opportunity. Would initiate position.


  • Vaatan neid aktsiaid, mis LHV PRO soovitab kiirete ideedena ja judinad jooksevad üle naha :))
  • Rick, ilmselt pole Sa neid PRO ideid lugenud - antud aktsia puhul läks stop juba ammu käiku ja aitasin siin lihtsalt Redi veidi hädast välja.

    Seega on ilmselt judinad saamata jäänud tootlusest tingitud :)
  • LIOXi juhtkond on viimastel nädalatel oma aktsiaid müünud 10 ja 11 pealt. Mehed ise siis vist väga ei usu edasisse tõusu.
  • Red,

    Insaiderid on viimastel kuudel müünud väga suuri koguseid ja seda väga suure enamuste aktsiate puhul. Seega pole LIOX mingi erand - juhtkonnad võtavad lihtsalt kasumeid.

    Ja ilmselt ei usuta ka, et uus pulliturg oleks alanud ...

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