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Börsipäev 7 -8. jaanuar - Nokia on rakett!

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  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Merrill Lynch tõstis täna hommikul Pfizeri (PFE) hinnasihi varasema $36 pealt $40 peale. Analüütikute sõnul väärib PFE sektorist kõrgemat valuatsiooni. Peamised põhjused selleks on: 1) liidripositsioon turul 2) tulemuste hea ennustatavus 3) keskmisest suurem kasvupotentsiaal

    Lisaks sellele näevad Merrilli analüütikud 2004. aastal aktsiate hinda pot. tõstvaid sündmusi: 1) Jaanuaris tehtavad 2004. aasta prognoosid 2) Tulevaste ravimite promo (võimalik, et Juunis 2004, kui on firma investorite päev 3) mõned võimalikult pos. lõpuga patendivaidlused geneerikutega.

    Viimasel ajal on kuulda olnud, et paljud fondid, mis pikka aega ei omanud farmat on hakanud muid aktsiaid (majaehitajaid jne) müüma, et osta selliseid firmasid nagu SGP, PFE, ning BMY.

    - Bernstein tõstab täna hommikul Inteli (INTC) reitingu Outperform peale varasema Market Perform pealt. Hinnasihiks $42. Nende arvates peaks 2004. aasta esimene poolt tulema väga tugev. Kasumiprognoosid 2004. aastaks tõstetakse analüütikute konsensusest veidi kõrgemale.

    - Circuit City (CC) müük võrreldes üleeelmise (2002/2003) aasta detsembriga kukkus 2%. Tulemuseks 7-8% kukkumine aktsiate turuväärtuses. $8-9 kandis on aktsiad fundamentaalselt üpriski soodsad. Lähemalt on firmast kirjutatud ka LHV Pro all.

    - Warnaco (WRNC) teatas, et firma 66 aastane juhatuse esimehe nõunik on surnud. Siiski ei ole ilmselt tegemist väga suure löögiga firma jaoks. Aktsiate hinda see uudis eriti liigutada ei tohiks.

    - JP Morgan tõstis Nokia (NOK) reitingu Neutraalse pealt Overweight peale. Hinnasihiks €18. Aktsia on eelturul 3% plussis.

    - Gary B. Smith:



    - RevShark:

    Market participants always need to be watching for potential dangers, but there are times when it is prudent to be even more vigilant than usual. Now is one of those times.

    The market certainly started the year with a bang. We have had tremendous momentum, and anticipating a top in this market has been a very dangerous enterprise. There is a great amount of cash out there looking for a place to go, and that liquidity is helping to keep this market aloft.

    Two things are causing me to be increasingly attuned for signs of trouble. First is that action in early January tends to be quite volatile. There are a number of unusual circumstances at work as we start a new year, such as retirement plan contributions, which can cause some quick swings as they dissipate.

    Also, many investors simply have a different mindset as the new year kicks off. Some want some quick gains so they chase things, while others do some buying to position themselves for the long haul. The bias tends to be toward putting money to work rather than taking a cautious approach.

    The bottom line is that the factors that drive strength in early January simply can't be trusted to last. We certainly have to respect the dynamics at work and go along for the ride, but we have to be wary that they will disappear just as quickly as they commenced.

    The second reason for caution is much easier to understand. Simply look at the charts of the major indices, especially the DJIA. They are clearly extended. The DJIA has gone straight up since November 21. There are some big profits to protect, and once profit-taking kicks in it can easily gather some momentum. The risk of a pullback is very high. That doesn't mean we will crash, but we badly need a rest.

    The Nasdaq is not nearly as extended as the DJIA, but it is overbought. Yesterday we saw pretty heavy rotation out of the cyclicals and industrial stocks and into technology stocks and some momentum favorites. The Chinese industrial stocks were hit particularly hard as investors tried to find less extended alternatives.

    I'm looking for the rotation back into technology stocks to continue as the liquidity that is sloshing around looks for a place to go. However, the technology stocks will very quickly become extended themselves after some of the big gains we saw yesterday. There seems to be fairly positive news flow supporting these stocks right now, but folks know that many of these stocks are at extreme levels and they will be quick to sell if they begin to weaken.

    My game plan is to continue to play long side momentum, especially in technology stocks where I see it, but keep stops tight and be less aggressive chasing extended stocks. I'm also building a hedge with short positions in the QQQ and DIA. I'm going to emphasize the DIA more than the QQQ simply because that chart is much more extended.

    We are at a particularly tricky juncture right now. There are factors at work that can keep this momentum going, but we clearly are extended and need a rest. In the early going, we have some slight weakness. The dollar continues to struggle, but made some minor gains against the Euro overnight. Asian markets were mixed with auto stocks takings some hits. European stocks were weak with oil stocks putting some pressure on the markets.

    Stay particularly vigilant right now. The chances of a sharp pullback are very high. We are walking the high wire. The rewards can be great if we successfully navigate our way, but the risks are very high if we stumble.

    Futuurid: Naz-0.20% SP-0.09%


    sB

  • LHV Pro all ka üks uus kauplemisidee.
  • Vaatasin seda uut hinnakirja ja tekkis küsimus, et kas LHV Trader`ga liitudes tuleb LHV Pro kätte boonusena või kehtib ka sellisel juhul LHV Prole omane kõrgem haldustasu? Muidu ajab uus hinnakiri ikka judinad peale....... Ostes 25$ aktsiaid 20 tuhande krooni eest piirhinnaga pead maksma endise 250 eek asemel 285 eek ja mida suuremaks lähevad summad seda koledamaks muutub number.... Kurb ja kole :(
  • PKS upgraded at Sanders Morris

    Sanders Morris upgrades Six Flags to Buy from Hold as a CY 2004 long idea. The upgrade is based on 1) Easy YOY attendance and per-cap comparisons; 2) A variety of new rides/attractions; 3) An anticipated pledge to de-lever; and 4) An attractive valuation. In the firm's opinion, what will move the stock is the anticipation of a more robust year for both attendance and per-caps into 2004. The firm's near-term price target of $9 is justified by a terminal multiple of 9.1x anticipated 2004 operating cash flow, a multiple in line with the co's anticipated 2004 growth rate.
  • Zwen, Traderi puhul on Pro boonuseks, kõrgemat haldustasu pole.

    Uus hinnakiri annab vabadust - Sinu toodud näite puhul tasub kasutada LHV Traderit, kus selle 25$ aktsiat 20K krooni eest ostes tuleks teenustasu maksta vaid ca. 100 eek. Kurba ja koledat ei ole siin küll nüüd midagi.
  • Tänud selgituse eest Kristjan! Pole seal jah miskit kurba ja koledat :)
  • Kas LHV Traderi kasutamiseks peab maksma ka 500 krooni kuus infotasu?
  • Kysimus 1.
    LHV Traderi hinnakirjas on USA aktsiad alla 450 ja yle 450. Aga kui ostan täpselt 450 (seondub kysimus2'ga)? Kas siis saan ilma tasuta? Kohtuvaidluse hinnakirja tõlgenduse yle võidaks vist kyll klient :)

    Kysimus2.
    Kas yle 450 aktsia puhul on 0.02 usd iga aktsia eest või ainult nende eest, mida on yle 450?
  • Circuit City (CC) on 200 päeva liikuva keskmise peale jõudnud. See võib pakkuda toetust.

    sB
  • Gerd, Traderi puhul on tõesti infotasu 500 eek, sest ilma nende reaal-ajas hindadeta ei saa ka kaubelda.

    Luuser, tänan täheleapanu juhtimise eest :) Küsimus 2: Kui nüüd tähelepanelikult arvutada, siis 9 USD on ka täpselt 0.02 USD eelneva 450 aktsia eest ...
  • Kas Traideri puhul on mingi aeg kui saab tasuta proovida?
  • Adz, ilmselt siiski mitte, sest sellel pole olulist mõtet - kes seda soovivad võtavad nagunii ja tootes ilmselt ei tule kellegil pettuda.
  • Tahaks täpsemalt teada mida see Traider võimaldab!?
  • Miks ma ei n2e protsentuaalset teenustasusid.Ainult mingit hambutut n2idet,mis mitte midagi ei ytle...
  • Privador, nii klientideni jõudnud e-mailis kui ka selles loos kus oli näide, oli link hinnakirjale. Seal ka täpsed numbrid.

    Adz, toode ise tuleb jaanuari lõpus välja, siis ka täpsem info toote kohta.
  • Tänud Kristjan.
    Jään põnevusega ootama!
  • Küsiks siis ka tolle Traderi kohta.
    1) Mida võimaldab see rohkemat kui USA borkerid suudavad pakkuda, kas eksisteerib mingi konkreetne tehniline faktor mis annab mingi erilise lisaväärtuse?

    2) Kui oletada, et Peetrike suudab treidida nii, et jääb kasumisse, siis kas LHV Traderi puhul suudetakse tagada selline asi, et maakler ei pääseks kliendi tehingute täpsele registrile ligi. Naised saunas rääkisid, et mõnes kohas võib muuta maaklerfirma töötajate ligipääsu kliendikontole piiratuks.
  • Lauri,

    Ma ei usu, et sa peaksid muretsema selle üle, et me su tehinguid vaatame :). Pealegi, LHVs näevad klientide tehinguid vaid vähesed töötajad.

    sB
  • Help!
    Miskipärast ei suuda Soome Hex-i lehel leida kohta, kus sealsete aktsiahindade aegridu/graafikuid saab, kas neid polegi? Või kes soovitaks mõnda alternatiivset kohta?
  • Kuldar1, proovisin ka ise seda kunagi leida. Selgus, et seda ei saagi, saab vaadata päevade kaupa tervet põhinimekirja, st kui tahad Exceli jaoks datat, siis pead tegema mingi proge, mis seda praegu korjama hakkab ja kunagi tulevikus on sul head graafikud :)
  • Nokia andis positiivse kasumihoiatuse, eps oodatakse 0,28-0,29, varasem ennustus 0,22-0,23
  • Teenisid ikka ka selle peale, rene?:)
  • Nokia on rakett!! +14% juba USA eelturul, ka USA futuurid on plussi kergitanud.

    Nokia seega üle 20 USD taseme.

    Päeva küsimus - millal viimati Nokia sulgus ülevalpool seda taset?
  • Fit, Nokia läks ikka eriti rahulikult pärast uudist üles, kas sa teenisid? :)
  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Tänase hommikul ilmselt suurimaks uudiseks on Nokia (NOK) neljanda kvartali prognooside tõstmine. Kasum aktsia kohta tuleb oodatust 6-9 eurosenti kõrgem ning seda langeva dollari tingimuses. Aktsia on eelturul 12-13% plussis. Plussis on ka allhankijad nagu RFMD; TQNT; SWKS jt. Lisa sellele tõstis firma olulisel määral ka võrguüksuse käibeprognoosi. Tundub, et viimaste päevade NT, LU jt. võrgumängude tõusu taga oli midagi enamat kui Verizoni mõnesaja miljoni suurune VoIP leping.

    - Merrill Lynch langetab Ameritrade (AMTD) reitingu Osta peale Hoia peale. Põhjuseks loomulikult valuatsioon. Samas tõstetakse E*trade (ET) hinnasihiti $15.40 peale $14 pealt.

    - Euroopa pooljuhid olid täna ostusurve all peale seda, kui Taiwan Semi (TSM) teatas Aasias, et detsembri jooksul tõsusis müük 68% võrreldes eelmise aasta sama perioodiga. TSM on üks maailma suurimaid pooljuhtide tootjaid. Paljud investorid võtavad seda signaalina, et nõudlus sektori toodete järele on tugevnemas.

    - Initial Claims 353K vs 345K consensus

    - Best Buy (BBY), USA suurim olmeelektroonika jaemüüja teatas, et FY04 kasum tuleb varasemate prognooside ülemises servas. Kui vaadata Circuit City (CC) tulemusi, siis tundub, et kaks firmat pole samas sektoriski.

    - Deutsche Bank tõstab Norteli (NT) reitingu varasema Hoia pealt Osta peale. Hinnasihiks $6.85. Siiski, kas ei olda juba veidi hiljaks jäädud?

    - Banc of America tõstab Sun Microsystems (SUNW)-i reitingu Osta peale varasema Neutraalse pealt. Hinnasihiks varasema $4.10 asemel $6.25. Analüütikute sõnul omab firma liit AMD-ga suurt potentsiaali.

    - Futuurid erilist optimismi Nokia (NOK) uudise peale üles ei näidanud. Turg on 0.25-0.5% plussis.

    - Gary B. Smith:


    - RevShark:

    There are few certainties when it comes to the stock market, but one thing we can be sure about is that just about everyone has an opinion about where things are headed. When the market has been as strong as it's been lately, market participants tend to become even more confident that a certain scenario will play out. The bears become increasingly convinced that this parabolic move will lead to the nasty decline they have been predicting, while the bulls gain confidence that this is just a prelude to the boom that they knew was going to occur and will last for months, if not years.

    Back in the bubble days of 1999 and 2000, it was the folks with strongly held preconceived opinions that failed to capitalize on the wild action. The bears were all too early in their predictions. They had little respect for how far and fast the market could go when things were "hot." They attempted to impose their view of "rationality" on the market and missed much of the boom as a result.

    The entrenched bulls suffered a similar fate. They constantly sought ways to justify the wild action. They came up with new ways to value stocks and talked about new paradigms. Few were willing to admit that the action was irrational and unsustainable. When the market started to pull back in March of 2000, they held tight to their theories and prejudices despite clear evidence to the contrary. They ended up riding things down for months as they hoped their theories would eventually pan out.

    We are once again at a time where both the bulls and bears are becoming increasingly confident in their positions. The higher the market goes, the more certain they become that things will play out as they envision. The bears know doom is right around the corner, while the bulls are confident that the rally is just getting started.

    But the folks with open minds are going to benefit the most from the current market environment -- those who respect the action that is in front of them but don't trust it to last. They know the dangers that exist in a parabolic move, but they also respect the power of momentum. They watch for signs of trouble but try not to overanticipate them.

    It makes for a particularly difficult balancing act. We want to capture the benefits of the wild exuberance, but we also want to guard against being caught in a quick reversal. If this was an easy situation to deal with, we'd all be billionaires, but the fact that it is difficult is what makes the market so potentially lucrative. Those who can walk the high wire successfully will rack up the big gains.

    Keep an open mind. Be aware of the profit potential when the market is flying, but also be aware of how quickly things can reverse when profit-taking sets in and traders rush to protect their outsized gains. The only guarantee I can make you about this market right now is that it is going to be very tricky to navigate.

    We have a steady open shaping up. Overseas markets were generally positive. The dollar continued to strengthen slightly. Gold is down and oil's up.

    Retailers are beginning to report same-store sales results which will be a focus today. Earnings season is quickly approaching and we will continue to see big moves in individual stocks as they surprise one way or the other.

    I continue with a rather mixed view of things. I see some great opportunities in individual stocks -- biotechnology, for example, looks ready for more upside. However, I distrust the extended indices and am watching for signs that selling may start in earnest.

    Good luck and go get 'em.


    Futuurid: Naz0.63% SP0.25%

  • Krt eile müüsin just maha ( NOK ), aaaaaaaa :(
  • viimati maksis NOKIA 20$ 2002 aasta kevadel.Helsingis hetkel 16.20 euri
  • kas kuskilt saab tickerite hetkehindu reaalajas ka yle wapi vaadata?
    ft.com on delayed :(
  • Ja mina müüsin just eile NOK callid maha, sain ca 5 korda vähem, kui täna oleks saanud ;( Õnneks jäin kasumisse ikkagi.
  • LHV Pro all üks värske idee kauplemiseks.

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