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Börsipäev 9. jaanuar - Tööjõutururaport nõrk

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  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Usa töötuse määr tuli 5.7%, mis oli madalam, kui oodatud 5.9%. See oli tööturu raporti positiivseks osaks. Negatiivseks osaks oli non-farm payrolls, mis ametliku 136K ning mitteametliku 200K tõusu asemel näitas vaid 1K suurust tõusu. Turg kukkus kohe pool protsenti ning jätkab samas vaimus. Karud, kes eile magasid oma võimaluse maha, saavad täna uue.

    Dollari/Euro graafik näeb välja järgmine:

    Hetke spot on USDEUR-l 0.7803

    - Fulcrum tõstab kuuldavasti Cisco (CSCO) reitingut. Kinnitada ei saa. Kuulujutt on vaid selline. Ilmselt täna see ka erilist mõju turule ei avalda.

    - Briti teadlased on avastanud, et nanotehnoloogia võib olla inimesele kahjulik. Osakesed, mis on mitmeid tuhandeid kordi väiksema läbimõõduga kui inimese juuksekarv, võivad oma tee leida ajju. Huvitav on jälgida, kas see uudis ka nanotehnoloogia haip-aktsiaid nagu NGEN, NANX, JMAR, ALTI ja TINY mõjutab.

    - Barrons kirjutab jällegi positiivse loo farmaatsiafirmadest. Eriti positiivselt on mainitud Pfizerit (PFE), mis on ka LHV Pro üks valik. Firma kasum 2004. aastal peaks tõusma 21%, mis on kogu sektori keskmisest 2x kõrgem.

    Negatiivselt on mainitud med. tehnika tootjaid nagu STJ ning BDX. Rain Lõhmus, kes on pikka aega hoidnud sellise firma nagu Guidant (GDT) aktsiaid, ütles, et valmistub neid peale 100% tõusu müüma. JP Morgan nimetas nädala alguses GDT oma Top Pickiks 2004. aastaks.

    - Päeva ilmselt kõige huvitavamaks reitingumuutuseks on SG Coweni upgreid Redback Networks (RBAKD) -i aktsiatele. Varasema Underperform asemel on soovituseks Outperform. Firma on pankrotist välja tulnud võlavabanda ning pangas on neil 30-40 mln dollarit.

    - Gary. B. Smith:


    - RevShark (enne tööturu raporti avaldamist)

    As the markets continue their ascent, the question we contemplate is whether they can do the impossible and continue straight up without a meaningful rest. Markets that are running away like this one present great difficulty for prudent risk-adverse investors. The inclination to jump in and join the party is extremely strong. The high level of optimism and the big gains that many are racking up are very seducing.

    However, when emotions are set aside and investors contemplate stocks that have made multiple-point parabolic moves in the matter of days, the decision to jump in is much more difficult. We all know that the market will correct at some point and that many of the recent winners will pull back hard, but how much juice is left in them in the short term? Can we squeeze more gains out of them today if we chase them higher? If you know the answer to that, then I look forward to seeing you in the next list of the Forbes 400.

    The fact that there is so much danger in the market right now is exactly why it also is so potentially profitable. The chances of another big burst upward are fairly high, as are the chances of quick reversal. The best thing you can do at this juncture is simply be aware of the potential for quick spikes up and down, and take it into consideration as you employ your methodology.

    The bulls are feeling extremely confident. They are counting on the inflow of beginning-of-the-year liquidity to keep things running. As Gary Smith has pointed out, the really amazing thing about this market isn't how fast it has gone up, but how limited the pullbacks have been. Dip buyers waiting for better prices before they put money to work have not had good opportunities to do so for weeks now.

    Those dip buyers are an important factor to keep in mind. The first pullbacks in this market are very likely to be bought by the frustrated folks who didn't chase this market up. Keep that in mind if a dip starts to develop.

    The key market driver this morning is going to be the monthly employment report at 8:30 a.m. EST. Predictions are for payrolls to grow 150,000 and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.9%.

    This report should be the catalyst for something dramatic. Investors who have been looking for a good reason to lock in gains may find it when these numbers hit. If the numbers are strong, I would not be at all surprised to see a gap up and then a failure as a sell-the-news reaction kicks in. Most of our recent reversals of consequence have come on good news producing a gap up, which reversed sharply as the day progressed. I'm staying particularly attuned to the possibility of a good-news reversal today.

    The early action is mixed as investors wait for the news. European market were pressured as oil stocks sold off but Asian stocks moved higher. The dollar is finding some support but overall it's quiet before the employment report storm.


    Futuurid: Naz-0.85% SP-0.47%


    sB


     

  • Turul kuulujutt, et pärast probleemideta aastavahetust on plaanis terroriohu indikaatorit alandada. Ilmselt see kedagi ei üllata ja turgu väga tugevalt seega ei mõjuta, kuid väikse positiivse fooni ehk lisab.
  • Raisio teatas, et kavatseb spinn offida kemikaaliüksuse ja selle börsil noteerida. samuti on mitmed suured keemiafirmad avaldanud soovi raisio chemicals ära osta. RAIVV +8%.

    Rene

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