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Börsipäev 14 - 16. jaanuar

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  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Täna avaldavad oma tulemused nii Intel (INTC), Apple Computer (AAPL) kui ka Yahoo (YHOO). Ootused on kõrged ning tasub meelde tuletada investorite reaktsiooni eilsetele SAP AG (SAP) tulemustele, mis ei olnudki nii halvad. Ma ei usu, et ükski nendest firmadest võiks prognoosidega ootustele alla jääda. Mäletatavasti oli Intel üks esimesi kevadekuulutajaid, mille kommentaaridest ligemale aasta aega tagasi suur ralli lahti läkski. Hetkel kaupleb INTC 26-27x selle aasta kasumiprognoosi aktsia kohta, mis ajalooliselt ei olegi nii kõrge number.

    - Kuhu on kadunud hullu lehma tõbi ja sellega seotud haip? Nagu polekski olnud. Õppetund tuleviku jaoks.

    Ühe keskse haip-aktsia Orchid Biosciences (ORCH) juhid on täna hommikul veel viimaseid tõusuraase ära kasutamas ning püüavad müüa $30 mln eest firma aktsiaid turule paisata. Digital Angel (DOC) on üks väheseid, mis on veel üleval.

    - Hiina internetifirma SINA.com (SINA) ning Yahoo (YHOO) hakkavad koos oksjoniäri ajama. Eelmise aasta lõpus ostis eBay (EBAY) $150 mln eest ära EachNeti nimelise oksjonipidaja. Analüütikute arvates peaks e-kommertsi käive Hiinas kasvama 2005. aastaks $16 miljardi juurde.

    - Wall Street Journal kirjutab, et Cingular võib olla üles ostmas AT&T Wirelessi (AWE). Pikka aega on sellel teemal spekuleeritud, et keegi ostab AWE ära ning nüüd tundub, et nii ka läheb.

    - XM Satellite (XMSR) teatas, et insaiderid kavatsevad turule müüa $450 mln eest firma aktsiaid. Firma turuväärtus on $4.5 miljardit.

    - Merrill Lynch Europe tõstab Nokia (NOK1V, NOK) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale.

    - Gary B. Smith:

    - RevShark:

    The stock market is always an exercise in psychology, but there are certain times when psychology plays an even greater role. Earnings season is one of those times. The reported numbers are meaningful only in the context of expectations. A "good" report when expectations are high will be treated as a disappointment by the market while a "bad" report when pessimism is high will be treated favorably.

    What makes earnings season particularly tricky is that not only do we have to accurately predict the numbers that will be posted, but we also have to accurately understand the level of expectations. If we predict the numbers but fail to understand expectations, we can easily find ourselves on the wrong side of a trade.

    As we wait for Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) to kick off the earnings parade tonight our key task is to understand the level of expectation that exists. The great likelihood is that both companies will post solid reports and beat the posted predictions. To make some money we need to understand how optimistic this market is and whether it is possible for the reports to be good enough to surpass expectations and entice new buying.

    The first step in figuring the level of expectation is to look at recent price action. Obviously, if prices rise sharply prior to an earnings report then market participants must be expecting something pretty positive. That brings us to the dilemma that is this market at the moment.

    Yahoo! and Intel as well as the major indices have been running straight up since mid-December. We have made a huge move in recent weeks. How much good news has been priced in by that strong action? How high are expectations now? Will a "good" report that beats the current estimates be good enough?

    My feeling is that it is going to be extremely difficult for earnings report to live up to the expectations that have been built in recently. Much of the current strength is attributable to seasonal factors and these factors will begin to ebb exactly as earnings reports hit. We have a very high hurdle to jump if this market is going to continue its upward ascent.

    One of the additional complexities right now is that there continue to be many individual charts that are set up very nicely. Unlike the indices, they are not extended and have solid bases from which to work higher. This has been the case for a while and has left me in the position of being aggressively long in a number of individual stocks but increasingly wary about the overall indices.

    The bottom line is that we have a very tricky environment to navigate. There is some real danger because of the extended level of the indices but plenty of opportunity in individual stocks that have good momentum and are not as elevated.

    In the early going we have a positive bias. Intel is trading higher as optimism grows about its earnings report. Overseas markets were generally positive and the dollar was strong overnight.

    Good luck and go get 'em.


    Futuurid: Naz0.39% SP0.21%

    sB

    We learn from history that we learn nothing from history.
    --George Bernard Shaw

     

  • Kas toodud KANA graafikult võib välja lugeda, et oleks aeg see lühikeseks müüa?
  • Concord Camera (LENS), endine BW aktsia on toetuse juurde kukkunud. Tänase kukkumise taga on analüütiku daungreid:

    LHVs aktsiast lähemalt siin


    sB



    Viimaste minutite jooksul on deskides tekitanud see veidi elevust.

    FWIW
  • Intelilt head tulemused, ületati prognoose nii käibe kui kasumiga, järgmise kvartali prognoose kinnitati. Kuid aktsia on järelturul -3%. Ehk toimub täpselt see millele ma tähelepanu juhtinud - oodatakse väga häid tulemusi, lihtsalt hea pole piisav.

    16:24 INTC Intel beats, guides in line (33.39 -0.20)

    Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.33 per diluted share, including a $0.06 charge that analysts were also including in their estimates. However, the $0.33 a tax benefit that was $0.06 greater than anticipated. Reuters Research consensus is $0.25. In touch with Reuters for comparable actual. Revenues rose 22.1% year/year to $8.74 bln vs the $8.65 bln consensus. Revenue in the first quarter is expected to be between $7.9 bln and $8.5 bln, consensus $8.23 bln.
  • AAPL prelim $0.17, 3 cents ahead
    APPLE Q1 17 CENT EARNS INCLUDE 1-CENT INVESTMENT GAIN
  • YHOO prelim revs $664 mln vs $495.49 mln consensus
    YHOO prelim $0.11, consensus $0.11

    YHOO kukub!!!
  • Seega AAPL ületas nii käibe kui kasumiga, YHOO kasum täpselt ootustele vastav, käive üle ootuste.

    Mõlemad aktsiad ca -5%. Sama fenomen mis ülalpool kirjeldatud.
  • yks tyyp ostis bank one jan 37.5 calle 5 sendiga 3000tk, ilmselt koik mis turul saada oli.
    one day profit - 9 milj. dollarit!! on on 68 hetkel.
  • Riq,
    68-ga keegi hetkel siiski ei osta, see pole oige hind, ulevotmishind tuleb sinna $50-56 kanti.

    Spunk ootab ka ise huviga ametlikku kurssi:)
  • Jah, päris meeletu järelturg täna, uudiseid kõvasti. JPM plaanib ONE üle võtta, nagu ikka ülevõtja miinuses ja ülevõetav plussis.

    Tundub, et keegi tõesti ostis ONE calle enne uudist kõvasti, nagu riq mainis, tegemist siiski 47.5 callidega. Vaadake graafikut. On juhtunud, et selliseid tehinguid on hiljem tühistatud, kui on siseinfo kahtlus olnud.
  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Kolm suurt, INTC, AAPL ning YHOO kauplevad täna hommikul keskmiselt 5% madalamal eilsest sulgemishinnast. Kõik ületasid viimase kvartali prognoose ning rääkisid üpris positiivseid asju ka tulevikust.

    Mõned kliendid on küsinud, mis on saanud LHV Pro alla olnud mõttest Apple Computerit (AAPL) lühikeseks müüa $23-24 juurest. Pean vastama, et kuigi paar päeva enne tulemusi võtsime suurematele ning riskialtimatele klientidele mõned lühikesed positsioonid, siis üldist AAPL-i lühikeseks müümist veel ei soovita. Usun korrektsiooni, kuid tipu tabamisega olen praegu veel ettevaatlik.

    - IBM (IBM) tegi karudele koleda üllatuse, lükates oma neljanda kvartali tulemused 5 päeva jagu ettepoole. See vihjas turuosaliste arvates sellele, et tulemused peaksid tulem oodatust paremad ning aktsia ostetigi järelturul 2-3% üles.

    Täna avaldatud tulemused kinnitasid spekulatsioone ning aktsia on veel 2-3% tõusule otsa kasvatanud. Kuuldavasti said selle liikumisega väga haiget optsioonikauplejad, kes olid tulemuste-eelsele kukkumisele mänginud.

    - Eilse ning ilmselt ka tänase päeva suurimaks uudiseks on JP Morgan Chase (JPM)-i ostupakkumine Bank One (ONE)-le. See tekitaks ilmselt maailma suurima panga. Uudis tekitab spekulatsioone ka teiste sarnaste tehingute teemal ning täna hommikul on WSJ välja toonud võimalikud äraostukandidaadid: CMA, KEY, USB, STI, NCC, SOV, UPC, SOTR, COF, PVN, KRB.

    Teised turuosalised aga vihjavad sellele, et tavaliselt märgivad sellised suurtehingud turgude tippe ning ka põhju. Mäletate veel, kui HPQ ostis ära konkurendi Compaq Computeri (CPQ)?

    - WSJ kirjutab ka sellest, et AT&T Wirelessi (AWE) aknale on öösiti koputamas lisaks Cingluarile (BLS, osalus) ka mitmed teised, kaasaarvatud Euroopast ning Jaapanist pärit konkurendid. Nende hulgas Vodafone (VOD) ning NTT DoCoMo Inc. (DCM).

    - Lehman tõstab täna hommikul Lucenti (LU) aktsiate reitingut Equal Weight pealt Overweight peale. Hinnasihiks varasema $3.50 asemel $4.50. Firma tulevikuväljavaated on analüütikute arvates järjest paremad.

    - Initial Claims 343k vs 350k consensus

    Turu rektsioon praktiliselt olematu.

    - Smith Barney alandab täna hommikul Yahoo (YHOO) reitingu Hoia peale varasema Osta asememl. Nende arvates on aksiad väärt umbes $50 tükist.

    - Gary B. Smith:


    - RevShark (enne IBM-i tulemusi):

    The big question for investors this morning is whether a marriage of two large banks can offset disappointing earnings reports in the technology sector.

    To the surprise of no one, except the folks who thought the majority had to be wrong, technology stocks sold off last night even after strong reports were posted by Intel (INTC:Nasdaq), Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) and QLogic (QLGC:Nasdaq). The bar was set too high and disappointment was almost assured.

    Fortunately for the bulls, the big J.P. Morgan (JPM:NYSE) and Bank One (ONE:NYSE) merger should keep market sentiment from turning too negative. In addition, IBM (IBM:NYSE) has moved up its earnings report to this morning, which bodes well for some favorable news.

    To complicate matters even more, all of the major indices remain overbought and vulnerable to profit-taking. This is a market badly in need of a rest, but investors have been much more worried about missing out than protecting profits. Momentum has been strong and the way to make money has been to chase rising stocks higher and higher. As the market continues its ascent, the level of profits to protect grows and the danger of a sharp selloff increases.

    One of the major positives for the bulls is that the strong start to the year has left many fund managers lagging their performance benchmarks. These folks have been waiting for better prices to put capital to work so they can attempt to catch up. They are the dip buyers and they are lurking about looking for a chance to buy. They will help put a floor under the market for a while.

    However, the big flood of liquidity that comes at the start of the year generally begins to dry up around the middle of January. If you look back at prior Januaries you will see some pretty sharp reversals after a strong start. I continue to feel quite strongly that we are due for a healthy consolidation of one sort of another.

    Given the above, the first thought that comes to mind is the possibility of a "rolling correction." There are still plenty of positives out there but some stocks have simply gone too far, too fast. The cash that is sloshing around wants to be in the market, and it may be inclined to move out of some of the more extended stocks and sectors and into those that are have not already made parabolic moves.

    So we are going to have to focus less on the "how fast can I run" momentum game and start playing some musical chairs. There is going to be some rotation out of technology stocks and into financials based on the news today, but there should also be some other pockets of action as the hot money dumps big winners and searches for the next momentum play.

    One other consideration to keep in mind is that we have many more earnings reports to come in the next few weeks. A few significant ones can quickly change the tone of this market again.

    This is a very tricky time right now and a very short-term time frame is probably the prudent approach if you want to extract some profits. We should have some very volatile action. There is more potential downside than upside right now overall, but there continues to be a surfeit of good long-side trade opportunities.

    Early indications are for a negative start, particularly in the Nasdaq, but watch for the IBM earnings report prior to the open to shake things up. Asian markets were weak because of the technology disappointments last night but European stocks were mixed, with financials helping to offset the problems in technology. Gold continues to pull back sharply to the $415 level as the dollar rallies. Gold stocks are on my watch list for possible buys in the days ahead as they find support levels.

    I'm going to fortify myself with a bowl of cinnamon oatmeal and another cup of coffee. It's going to be a tricky day.

     

    Futuurid: Naz SP


    Some days you're the Dog, & Some days you're the Hydrant

    - Bumper sticker

     

  • Tänase JPM ja ONE ühinemise teemadel - kuidas on turg käitunud pärast suuri ühinemisi? Näeme, et esimese päeva reaktsioon on olnud sageli positiivne, kuid pikema perioodi peale on ühinemise roosilisus kadunud ja 10-30 päeva vahemikus on turg pigem allapoole tulnud.

    Kuupäev

    Ühinemine

    Tehingumaht(mlrd.)

    S&P 500 liikumine

    Uudise avaldamisel

    1 Päev 
    hiljem

    3 Päeva 
    hiljem

    5 Päeva 
    hiljem

    10 Päeva 
    hiljem

    30 Päeva 
    hiljem

    01/10/00

    AOL,

    Time Warner

    $183

    1.1%

    (1.3%)

    (0.5%)

    (0.2%)

    (3.3%)

    (6.6%)

    02/07/00

    Warner-Lambert, Pfizer

    $89

    0.0%

    1.2%

    (0.5%)

    (2.4%)

    (5.1%)

    4.9%

    12/01/98

    Mobil,

    Exxon

    $86

    1.0%

    (0.3%)

    0.1%

    0.5%

    (1.1%)

    3.1%

    04/06/98

    Citicorp,

    Travelers

    $73

    (0.1%)

    (1.1%)

    (1.0%)

    (0.5%)

    0.5%

    (1.1%)

    05/04/98

    Ameritech,

    SBC

    $72

    0.1%

    (0.6%)

    (2.4%)

    (1.4%)

    (1.4%)

    (3.1%)

    04/13/98

    Bankamerica,

    Nationsbank

    $62

    (0.1%)

    0.5%

    (0.1%)

    1.3%

    (2.1%)

    (1.4%)

    06/08/98

    Wells Fargo, Norwest

    $34

    0.2%

    0.2%

    (1.9%)

    (3.5%)

    (1.1%)

    4.4%

    09/13/00

    JP Morgan,

    Chase

    $34

    0.2%

    (0.3%)

    (2.7%)

    (2.3%)

    (3.9%)

    (8.1%)

    10/05/00

    US Bancorp,

    Firstar

    $21

    0.1%

    (1.9%)

    (3.4%)

    (7.4%)

    (3.3%)

    (4.5%)

     

    Keskmine tootlus:

    0.3%

    (0.4%)

    (1.4%)

    (1.8%)

    (2.3%)

    (1.4%)

    % positiivne:

    67%

    33%

    11%

    22%

    11%

    33%

    Allikas: www.sentimentrader.com

  • Turg hakkab otsaga plussi jõudma, kui plussis ka lõpetatakse, siis on see väga tugev märk ja toetab edasist tõusu.
  • Rämpsaktsia ROCLF juba üle 100% plussis. Lihtsalt huvi pärast küsin, mis sellise liikumise taga on? Ise selliseid aktsiaid õnneks/kahjuks ei kauple.
  • Royal Olympic Signs Agreement With German Banks

    sB
  • to alvar no liitu rongiga,ehk ampsad ka oma 20%:)
  • USG oli soovitus eile panna stop 18 alla vist, praegu pendeldab edasi tagasi, mida teha ?
    DYIIE on täna mu varandust kenasti suurendand, mis eile ära võeti
  • Järelturul liikumised tänaste tulemuste peale - Juniper (JNPR) +8%, Cree Inc (CREE) +7%, Sun (SUNW) 0%.
  • An investor Thursday turned $13,750 into $825,000 by buying bullish Bank One Corp. options about half an hour before news broke that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. would acquire its smaller rival, according to volume data. The trade raised eyebrows among options traders, analysts and exchange officials who wondered whether it was based on inside information.

    The country's five major options exchanges and the Securities and Exchange Commission don't release information on individual trades publicly. But a private database maintained by the firm Schaeffer's Investment Research Inc., which tracks real-time volume data to deduce when various trades are executed, offered some insight into the transaction Thursday, said Jerry Wang, an analyst for the firm.

    -WSJ-

     

    Rene


  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - UBS tõstab täna hommikul Cisco Systemsi (CSCO) hinnasihi $28 pealt $33 peale. Ilmselt on peamiseks teguriks konkurendi Juniper Networksi (JNPR) eile õhtul avaldatud väga head tulemused, mis viisid firma aktsiad 10% tõusule järelturul. Täna hommikul tõstavad mitmed analüütikud Juniperi reitinguid. Osa sellest tõusust kandub kindlasti edasi ka konkurentidele nagu FDRY, EXTR ning ka COMS.

    - Morgan Stanley alandab Qualcommi (QCOM) reitingu Overweight pealt Equal Weight peale. Nende arvates on 103% tõus alates eelmise aasta Maist sisse diskonteerinud lähema aja head uudised.

    - Concord Camera (LENS) teatas, et teise kvartali (cal Q4) tulemused tulevad allpool ootusi. Varasema 17-20 sendise kasumi asemel nähakse 6-9 senti kahjumit aktsia kohta. Käive varasema $70-75 mln prognooside asemel $65 mln. Põhjusena toodi välja tugevnenud konkurents digikaamerate turul, mis lõi alla müügihinnad. Aktsiad kauplevad hetkel $7-6.50 vahel, mis on 10-15% madalam sulgemishinnast. Aktsiad kukkusid üleeile peale seda, kui üks pisike analüüsifirma alandas firma reitingut just eelpool toodud põhjustele tuginedes. On võimalik, et suur osa halbadest prognoosidest on juba aktsia hinnast sees.

    Lähemalt on aktsiast kirjutatud LHVs siin.

    - Maailma suurima firma General Electricu (GE) tulemused tulid ootuspärased. Selle aasta kasum peaks firma juhtkonna arvates kasvama vähemalt 10%. GE on eelturul 1% võrra plussis.

    - Liigutvad kuulujutud, et Tellabs (TLAB) ostab ära Advanced Fiber Comm (AFCI)-i.

    - Pisike protsessoritootja Transmeta (TMTA) sai pärast eilseid tulemusi Rodman & Rensahw käest reitingualanduse varasema Outperform pealt Market Perform peale. Aktsiad on 4-5% miinuses võrreldes sulgumishinnaga.

    - Gary B. Smith:

    - RevShark:

    For all of the ranting and raving about this market's wild strength, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up less than 1%, and the S&P 500 is up less than 2%. The Nasdaq has been stronger, up just over 5% this year. But so much of the big move has come from one place: telecom. The Nasdaq Telecom Index is up a whopping 8.5% since we rang in the New Year. Further under the surface is where it really gets interesting, as a veritable plethora of stocks are up 50% or more since Jan. 1.

    The big moves come from single-digit stocks like Nortel (NT:NYSE) and Sun Micro (SUNW:Nasdaq) and double-digit stocks like Advanced Fibre (AFCI:Nasdaq) and Tekelec (TKLC:Nasdaq) alike. And they come from small-caps like Oplink (OPLK:Nasdaq) and Corvis (CORV:Nasdaq) as well as from big-caps like Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq) and Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq). It's broad-based and -- much, much more importantly to me -- it's fundamentally based.

    Ever since this bull phase started last March, we've listened to pundits and analysts boo-hoo the valuations of tech stocks. In 2000, they couldn't see that the bubble would pop and their estimates for the next few years would have to come drastically lower. Now, they also haven't been able to see that the tide has turned and that their estimates for the next few years now need to go much higher.

    The very first telecom earnings report of the season, Juniper, provides us with a classic case study here. Yesterday, analysts were predicting that Juniper would earn about a quarter a share this year. With the stock trading in the low $20s, that meant a forward P/E of almost 100. Run for the hills; the bubble is back!

    Alas, Juniper reported a blowout quarter last night and guided next quarter sharply higher. There's a ton of operating leverage in the model, and analysts suddenly have to up their estimates for 2004. So today, they're trying to tell us that the company will earn about 40 cents this year. With the stock trading in the mid-$20s, that makes for a P/E of about 60.

    The stock price is higher, but the P/E is lower! Funny how that works when companies have started growing again. Finally, in regards to Juniper, I'd humbly suggest you take a gander at my column about Juniper's customers, the telecom service providers being positioned to ratchet up spending this year. What happens if the analysts have to take that 40-cents estimate for Juniper to 80 cents before the year is over? (Answer: The stock could be considered a value play by some investors on a P/E/G basis.)

    With the "shocking" quarter from Juniper, the Nazz and especially the telecom plays will be all the rage this morning. Hang on, it's sure to be a wild wrap-up to a wild week in this wild year.

    Long SUNW, AFCI, TKLC, OPLK, CORV, JNPR puts; net short DIA, QQQ

     

    Futuurid: Naz SP

     

    The future is here. It's just not evenly distributed yet.
    - William Gibson

  • rick, kas on teada ka millal DYII (hetkel DYIIE) börsilt minema visatakse? Üle-öö positsioone ma selles aktsias küll ei hoiaks.
  • Olen jah sellega kursis, aga samas väga soodne aktsia oma fund. näitajate poolest ja riski ning $ suhe on paigas. Vähemalt olen kõvasti lollo raha teeninud
  • NB! Esmaspäeval USA-s börsid suletud - Marthin Luther Day.
  • DYII soodsad näitajad on kahtlased. Audiitor lahkus sealt firmast käsi laiutades ja öeldes, et kompanii ei ole võimaline pädevaks aruandluseks. Samuti harrastasid firma juhtivad kirurgid oma "flagship" haiglas - Vista Hospitalis kahtlasi tehinguid patsientidega, mispeale osadel litsentsid tühistati. Jms. Saaga on pikk, mida alles uuritakse ja mis ilmselt lõppeb drastiliste sissetulekute kahanemisega selle firma jaoks.

    Selge see, et hinda on juba palju seda jama sisse arvatud ja enam hullemaks minna "nagu" ei saaks ;) Spekuleerimiseks, kui julge oled, on muidugi hea instrument.
  • Sellistel juhtudel pole fundamentaaliga tõesti mitte halligi teha, Worldcom oli ka fundamentaalselt $10 juures väga odav, aga näe nulli kukkus.
  • Mis arvate HEC-i kohta momendil, saab soodsalt ?
  • Naljakas kuidas E-Loan (EELN) ei ole Netbank (NTBK)-i kasumihoiatuse peale üldse all.


    sB
  • 09:43 NTBK NetBank lower on 8-K filing (13.05 -1.34)

    Stock under pressure in reaction to the following statement in an 8-K filing with the SEC: "Today, we are aware of nine estimates for Fourth Quarter 2003 earnings, ranging from $.22 to $.27 per share with a consensus of $.24 per share. Based on prevailing market and operating conditions, the company's results are tracking toward the lower end or slightly below this range."

    sB
  • Njaaa, kui olukord seal Lai tänav, korter 5 tõepoolest selline on siis peaks ju veel valjemini karjuma. Kuid miks selline helitükk üldse avalikuks tehti? Ei ole just hea idee niigi raevunud klienti veel rohkem ärritada...
  • Kuidas GE-l IV. kvartalil kah läks

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