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Börsipäev 22 -23. jaanuar

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  • Nokia dividendid 0,3 vs konsensus 0,31

    mobiilisektori kasv 10% 2004

    1Q müük peaks kasvama 3-7% (oodati 5%). 1Q EPSks oodatakse 0,17-0,19 (konsensus 0,2€).

    Võrguturg peaks 2004 olama eurodes mõõdetuna 2003 võrreldes samasuur.

    Aktsia 15,99€
  • Ollila CNBCs: neljanda kvartali tugev momentum telefonide turul jätkub. Aktsia on tagasi, 16,4 juures.

    Dollari mõju märkimisväärne müügile.

    Nokia plaanib uut, oma aktsiate tagasiostuprogrammi.

    ja praegu omatavatest aktsiatest 94,5-146M aktsiat tühistatakse.
  • Raisio avaldas Q4 eelvaate. Restruktureerimiskulud on suuremad oodatust, 7M vs 3M.
    4Q peaks ettevõte jõudma kasumisse, täpseid numbreid ei avaldatud. Omakapitali suhe on üle 32%. Esimene reaktsioon oli hirmus, aktsia kukkus 1,1€ni, kuid praeguseks on aktsia taastunud.
  • - Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Deutsche Bank tõstis täna hommikul Bea Systemsi (BEAS) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale. Hinnasihiks varasema $12 asemel $16. Mis teeb selle päris "tavalise" reitingumuutuse oluliseks on turuosaliste reaktsioon. Aktsia on nimelt 3% eelturul miinuses. Tundub, et kusagilt ilmus(id) välja suured müüja(d). See on reeglina päris halb märk kui suhteliselt suur firma ei tõuse enam suure panga analüütiku upgreidi peale.

    Teiselt poolt liigub turul jutt, et Merrill Lynch on aktsia reitingut alandanud. Kinnitust pole sellele saanud.

    - Avanex (AVNX), mis eelmisel nädalal tegi läbi päris tõsise tõusu võib täna hommikul sattuda müügisurve alla. Nimelt kirjutab Lightreading.com, et firma on kaotamas Norteli (NT) lepingut JDS Uniphasele (JDSU).

    - Repligeni (RGEN) huvilised võiksid vaadata LHV Pro alla.

    - Pfizeri (PFE) tulemused tulid oodatust veidi paremad. Firma kinnitas 2004. aasta prognoose. Selle peale on aktsiad eelturul veidi plussis.

    - AT&T Wireless (AWE) teatas oma Q4 tulemused, mis nagu oodati, olid allpool analüütikute konsensust. Samas teatas firma juhtkond ametlikult, et paneb firma müüki. Turgudel on kogu nädala käinud tihe spekuleerimine võimaliku ülesostu teemal ning analüütikud pakuvad võimalukuks hinnaks $11-13 aktsia kohta.

    - Probleemides vaevlev Eastman Kodak (EK) teatas tulemused, mis ületasid turuosaliste ootusi. Ka ületasid turuosaliste ootusi firma kasumiprognoosid 2004. aastaks. Lisaks sellele teatas firma juhtkond, et kavatseb 2006. aastaks vähendada töötajate arvu 21% võrra. Tean vähemalt kahte fondijuhti, kes on EK aktsiates pikad ning usuvad, et 3-5 aasta pärast võiksid need 2x rohkem maksta. Eelturul on aktsiad 5% plussis.

    - Nokia (NOK) kaupleb eelturul veidi plussis. Firma CEO Jorma Ollila sõnul peaksid telefonide müügimahud esimeses kvartalis üldiselt kasvama 20%. Nokia peaks seda kasvu ületama. Samas käive telefonide müügist peaks kasvama 3-7%, mis tähendab, et keskmine müügihind kukub.

    - Üks viimase aja armatatumaid tehnoloogiafirmasid Sandisk (SNDK) sai eile õhtul peale tulemuste avaldamist päris tõsise müügisurve osaliseks.

    - Gary B Smith:

    - RevShark:

    On the surface the market looks pretty easy. The trend is up, there is a steady supply of new highs, the news is pretty darn good and we haven't dipped more than 1% in weeks. If you bought a strong stock recently you probably have made money.

    It would appear that the most sensible course of action is to simply buy and hold while the rampaging bull takes us steadily higher. One simplistic-sounding Wall Street aphorism that works very well in a market like this is, "Don't fight the trend."

    But respecting the trend doesn't mean we should stick our head in the sand. Conquering the market beast requires an unusual mix of patience and quick action. We have to be patient while the trend plays out and not become unduly concerned about brief pullbacks and consolidation. On the other hand, we need to act quickly and protect our gains when the warning signs build and market sentiment begins to change.

    We need to be wise, in control of our passions and not so content that we blindly believe that things will never change. Respect the strength in this market but don't be overly trusting. Mr. Market is always looking for ways to extract his pound of flesh and if we don't stay vigilant he will be happy to claim one of our appendages.

    The flood of earnings reports continues and reaches a crescendo after the close today with the report from Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq). Since the close last night we have had some very good reports plus some that were not so happily greeted. eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq), Symantec (SYMC:Nasdaq) and Xilinx (XLNX:Nasdaq) are leading the upward charge. Our best clue about the market will come from watching how well these stocks hold their gains as the day progresses. Do they attract new buyers or does some profit-taking kick in?

    I've been writing recently about the possibility of a sell-the-news reaction to earnings and so far I've been wrong, with a few brief minor exceptions. Earnings have been good enough, expectations low enough and momentum strong enough to prevent any sustained selling from kicking in. The market has been content with what it's seen so far and is optimistic that the news will continue to be solid. But in contentment lurks danger.

    I still anticipate a sell-the-news reaction but we are going to have to wait for the bulk of earnings season to end before it appears. The pullback might not be much and I'm certainly not bearish about the longer-term prospects of this market, but Mr. Market badly needs to shake up the complacent bulls and inject a little more emotion.

    Lots of bulls scoff at the suggestion that the market can't continue its steady and uninterrupted ascent. As I've said many times, markets tend to move much higher or lower than seems reasonable. However, it is equally true that the market tends to surprise us when we are feeling most confident. One thing that should be quite clear is that the level of bullish confidence is extremely high right now. That doesn't mean we should panic and rush to sell. It means that we have watch for signs that Mr. Market is becoming ornery.

    We have a slightly positive bias in the early going. Earnings reports were generally good with the exception of SanDisk (SNDK:Nasdaq), Mercury Interactive (MERQ:Nasdaq) and a couple others.

    The market has had a very strong tendency lately to bounce back from morning weakness. The first sign of trouble in the market will be when that tendency begins to wane. With the Microsoft earnings report tonight we are likely to be in somewhat of a holding pattern, but we should have some clues about how much drive the bulls have left.

     

    Futuurid: Naz0.29% SP0.01%


    sB

     


    "THEY COULDN'T HIT AN ELEPHANT AT THIS DIST.........." - Major Gen. John Sedgwick.
    Instantly killed by a sniper while peering over parapet during the Battle of Spotsylvania

  • Liigub kuulujutt, et meie aja järgi kell 18.00 tuleb mingi suur uudis "sõjast terroriga".
    Saab näha.
  • DOLLAR GETS LIFT BY UNSUBSTANTIATED RUMOR OF BIN LADEN CAPTURE-TRADERS -- Reuters
  • Vahepeal loodeti juba Osama tabamise uudist, kuid tundub, et midagi olulist siiski ei tule. US riigiteenistujad juba kinnitasid, et Osamat pole tabatud.

    http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/js1106.htm
  • Kas keegi aitaks, kus saaks tasuta jälgida USA optsioone reaalajas?
  • www.wallstreetcity.com
    Ainult registreerida on vaja.
  • ScotTrade striimeris saab ka optsioone vaadata. Aktsiad on seal küll enamvähem reaalajas, kas ka optsioonid?
  • Enz, on küll ka optsioonid reaalajas, kuid Scottraderi info kipub sageli vigane olema, näiteks käive pea alati vale.
  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Microsofti (MSFT) tulemused tulid oodatust paremad. Firma liitus nende ettevõtete ringiga, kes suudavad kvartalis näidata üle $10 miljardi suurust käivet. Ootused olid veidi allpool seda taset. Aktsia esimene reaktsioon oli üles, siis tuldi alla ning täna hommikul on aktsiad jällegi 1% jagu plussis.

    Analüütikud on suhteliselt neutraalsed. Mõned viitavad langenud edasilükatud käibe numbrile, mis peaks vihjama sellele, et uued litsentseerimisprogrammid ei ole ennast õigustanud.

    Ma usun, et MSFT on üks parimaid võimalusi kogu majanduse elavnemisele mängida. Firma aktsiad jäid eelmise aasta üldisest tech-rallist maha ning ma olen kindel, et 2004. kujuneb aastaks, mil see tasa tehakse. LHV Pro valik.

    - Päeva põrkaja tiitel läheb Secure Computing (SCUR) nimelisele firmale. SCUR avaldas eile õhtul tulemused, mis ületasid turuosaliste ootusi. Ootused olid viimaste päevade jooksul väga madalale tambitud analüütikute poolt ning sama võib öelda ka aktsiahinna kohta, mis kukkus viimase nädalaga üle 20%. Usun, et lõksus olevad karud proovivad iga hinnaga sealt välja saada.

    - CIBC tõstis Pfizeri (PFE) reitingu Outperformer peale. Hinnasihiks $41.

    - Tyco (TYC) teatas, et vahetab audiitoreid. Aktsia on selle uudise peale vähemalt hetkel veel muutumatu.

    - Tenet Healthcare (THC) on täna hommikul 5% miinuses, kuna teatas, et jällegi üks nende haiglatest on sattunud valitsuse juurdluse sihtmärgiks. Varasemalt on sellised uudised pakkunud ei midagi muud kui soodsa ostukoha. LHV Pro valik.

    - Gary B. Smith:


    - RevShark:

    One of the more interesting psychological aspects of big rallies is the lack of tolerance for any sort of pullback or consolidation. The bulls become frustrated very quickly when the market doesn't gallop straight up without a pause. A few days of rest and maintenance is often viewed as a sign that havoc and catastrophe lie ahead.

    The inclination to be so intolerant of healthy profit taking, consolidation and basing action is probably a consequence of the mob mentality of the market. Individually, most everyone understands the importance of rest after the market has made a big move, but collectively the desire for more and more overrides common sense.

    The bulls have been experiencing quick and steady gains for weeks now, with recent gains some of the best since the top in early 2000. Obviously, the bulls won't ever be content. They always want more. They want to keep on building but they don't want to be patient and do the work for a firm foundation. The market can always build higher and higher but when it doesn't rest and do some maintenance, the chances that it will crumble are very high.

    Yesterday we had a taste of some profit-taking for the first time in a while. Technology stocks, particularly semiconductors, pulled back sharply as momentum investors stepped aside and let some recent winners fall sharply.

    The long-suffering bears have their fingers crossed that this is the start of the collapse that they have been predicting for many months. Maybe it is, but I believe the greater likelihood is that we will see a fairly strong pullback over the next few weeks that will set the stage for more new highs later in the year.

    One of the great benefits of a sharp pullback is that it builds up the wall of worry that the market needs in order to work higher. Investors have become very complacent and overly optimistic. They need to be shaken up a bit to create a healthier market environment.

    I feel quite strongly that earnings season will be the catalyst for some "market maintenance." As the reports wind down, the market will have to look toward economic news to drive us higher and I don't think it is going to be strong enough to keep this parabolic move going. The value buyers and non-momentum-type investors have been shut out of this market recently. They need a dip before they will be willing to put some cash to work.

    The bottom line is that I'm looking for some short-term softness to set us up for more long-term upside. I don't know to what degree we may see it but a little panic and some healthy downside momentum would be the best thing that could happen to bulls.

    In the early going we are holding close to flat. Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) sold off after-hours last night on its earnings report but is trading a little better in the very early going this morning. Amgen (AMGN:Nasdaq) disappointed and has a downgrade or two.

    I'm looking for profit-taking in technology stocks to continue, but I expect to see rotation into financials and medical stocks as the money sloshing around out there looks for a place to go.

    Like many other folks I'm sitting on a big lead. I'm going to play a very careful ball-control offense and not take any big risks. I'm looking for my defense to step up at this juncture and preserve the points I have on the board. We've had a good preseason and don't want any injuries as we prepare for the regular season.

    Be careful out there.


    Futuurid: Naz0.03% SP-0.04%

     

    If you want to be liked, get a dog. The people you work with are not your friends.
    --Deborah Norville

     

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