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Börsipäev 26 -28. jaanuar

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  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Prantsuse päritolu Sanofi-Synthelabo (SNY) teatas pärast nädalaid kestnud spekulatsioone, et kavatseb üle võtta Aventise (AVE). Tehingu suuruseks 60 miljardit eurot, mis viiks Sanofi maailma 3. suurimaks ravimitootjaks GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) ning Pfizeri (PFE) taga.

    Ma häst ei usu, et see uudis võiks mingil moel USA tootjaid mõjutada.

    - Schering-Plough (SGP) avaldas oma neljanda kvartali tulemused, mis jäid karvavõrra ootustele alla. Siiski kinnitas pressiteatas firma juht Fred Hassan, et firma tegelik potentsiaal hakkab väljenduma alles 2005. aastal. 2004. aasta tulemusi kommenteeriti vaid sedavõrd, et need peaksid tulema 2003. aasta omadest madalamad (jutt puhaskasumist). Aktsia on eelturul selle peale mõned protsendid miinuses.

    - Merck (MRK), USA üks suurimaid farmaatsiafirmasid, saab üle pika aja Barronsi käest kiita. Firma aktsiad, mis viimase 10 aasta jooksul on kaubelnud keskmiselt 23x P/E juures, kauplevad hetkel allpool 15x piiri. Ühe fondijuhi arvamus, kes on MRK-i viimase paari nädala jooksul ostnud:

    "Historically, over the last decade, when you've been able to buy a high-quality pharmaceutical company at a well-below-market multiple, you've been very well rewarded," says David Katz of Matrix Asset Advisors, who has been "enthusiastically" buying Merck in the past few weeks. "When the perception changes about Merck, it will be fairly rapid," he says. "By the time you realize it's happening, it will already be too late." That's because investors tend not to make moves until new drugs are well along in development -- and at that point they move as a herd.

    - Lucent (LU) saab ka Barronsi käest kiita. 2002. aasta lõpu 58 sendi põhjast 5 dollari juurde tõusnud aktsiad ei pruugigi enam olla spekulatiivseks mänguks. Analüütikute sõnul suudab firma jällegi müüa telekommunikatsiooniseadmeid ning on avastanud ka USA riigihanked. Friedman, Billing, Ramsey analüütik, keda antud loo jaoks intervjueeriti arvab, et Lucenti aktsiaid tasub osta iga korrektsiooni pealt.

    - Six Flags (PKS) püsib veel $8 piiri all. Usun, et varem või hiljem see tase murdub:


    - Tenet Healthcare (THC) saab täna hommikul SunTrusti käest reitingualanduse Underweight peale varasema Equal Weight asemel. THC aktsiad on viimase 12 nädala jooksul 40% tõusnud ning analüütikud arvavad, et fundamentaalsetest edusammudest ette jooksnud.

    - Banc of America alustab Research in Motioni (RIMM) katmist Osta reitingu ning $118 hinnasihiga. Tegemist on viimase aja ühe tõsisema short-squeeze aktsiaga.

    - Gary B. Smith



    - RevShark:

    The biggest problem with the current market is that it has been remarkably problem-free for such a long time. On the surface that sounds like a good thing. The market just keeps rolling along without a worry in the world, so why shouldn't we simply expect that to continue and not be unduly concerned until there is something real to be worried about?

    It is easy to forget that real and lasting strength comes from overcoming problems and difficulties. We need challenges in the form of pullbacks, poor news, doubt and skepticism to build character and strength. Weak holders and fair-weather friends need some fear of the bear to make things stronger over all. The longer the bulls go unchallenged the greater the danger they will collapse when faced with minor adversity.

    It is only through struggle that we grow stronger. The bulls have had it too easy for too long and that should be a major concern for those of us looking for a healthy long-term bull market. Respect this buoyant market but don't be too trusting.

    Last week we actually did see some minor signs of weakness. The Nasdaq and the DJIA were both down on the week for the first time in quite a while. The S&P 500 managed to keep its winning streak alive but its upward progress was slow.

    Over all, the indices are still solidly in an uptrend but they remain extended. We need a rest but in his time-honored fashion of dishing out frustration, Mr. Market isn't giving the bulls any real weakness in which they can deploy capital and he continues his abuse of the poor bears, who haven't caught a break in ages.

    The indices still have good momentum, especially the small-caps. The Russell 2000 was up nicely on Friday while the other indices were weak. There are still quite a few pockets of momentum to be found, as the solid breadth on Friday indicated.

    The most troubling turn of events in the past week was the weakness in the semiconductors despite generally solid earnings. There have been some very sharp pullbacks and a number of stocks have some major technical problems. Prime examples are KLAC, LRCX, NVLX, MCHP, ASML, SNDK and OVTI.

    We have another very busy week of earnings reports coming up but many of these are smaller secondary stocks. These stocks have been doing well and we are going to have to watch very carefully for signs that they may sell off on news, like the chip stocks have. Be particularly cautious with technology stocks that are up big going into earnings reports. A lot of good news is priced in and even a good report can be a catalyst for some selling.

    The dollar continues to remain one of the most important drivers in this market. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this weekend, George Soros stated, "Since the decline of the dollar in the short term is beneficial for the U.S. economy, the authorities actually like it."

    For the technical analysis fans out there, Soros makes the interesting observation that currency trends "tend to actually pick up speed." Soros sees the weak dollar as a boost for the U.S. market as it attracts foreign investors. When you view the major indices on a euro- or yen-dominated basis they don't look nearly as extended as they do on a dollar basis.

    We are a little shaky in the early going, and there isn't much major news to deal right now. Earnings reports start to kick in after the close today. Overseas markets were mostly weak. Disappointment over the hostile bid with little premium by Sanofi (SNY:NYSE) for Aventis (AVE:NYSE) was the main source of pressure.

    It looks like it is going to be a stock picker's market as the indices meander around and look for direction. It's been a great market for trading for a while now and that is likely to continue


    Futuurid: Naz-0.33% SP-0.15%


    I have missed more than 9,000 shots in my life. I have lost almost 300 games, 26 times I have been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I have failed over and over and over again. That is why I succeed...
    --Michael Jordan

  • MILWAUKEE, Jan. 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN - News), a world leader in the staffing industry, announced today that it has completed its exchange offer to acquire Right Management Consultants, Inc. (NYSE: RHT - News), the world's largest career transition and organizational consulting services firm.

    Manpower and Right announced the acquisition on December 10, 2003, and Manpower commenced an exchange offer on December 19, 2003. The exchange offer expired at 12:00 midnight EST on the evening of Wednesday, January 21, 2004. Each share of Right common stock will be exchanged for 0.3874 of a share of Manpower common stock and cash for fractional shares in accordance with the terms of the offer.

    Terve artikkel Yahoos

    Mida see toob kaasa RHT callidele? Täna tundub, et RHT -ga igatahes ei kaubelda enam.
  • Hehee
    oleks sa voinud 1.35 peal MCHM ka kohe lyhikeseks myya...
  • LHV Pro soovitus JAKK on päris hea, tänud
  • jim

    RHT callidel muutusid sümbolis esimesed 3 tähte TGK-ks ja 1 optsioon annab nüüd õiguse osta sama strike juures 38 MAN aktsiat.

    Lisaks sisaldab 1 optsioonileping endas nüüd 0,74 USD.
  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Novelluse (NVLS) kvartalitulemused tulid eile õhtul paljude turuosaliste üllatuseks oodatust halvemad. Ka uute tellimuste kasv jäi konkurentide omast maha. Analüütikud on üldiselt täna hommikul kahte lehte löödud: Goldman Sachs väidab, et aktsiad peaksid veel nõrgenema, kuid samas AG Edwards ning paar väiksemat kutsuvad kukkumist suurepäraseks ostuvõimaluseks. Ma olen ka enne märganud, et NVLS ei ole tavaliselt maha saanud nii heade tulemustega kui AMAT või KLAC.

    Hea on jälgida täna NVLS-i aktsiaid, kuna nende käitumine räägib väga palju turu meelestatusest. Kui pärast avanemist tulevad ostjad uuesti peale, siis peaks ka kogu ülejäänud turg ülespoole liikuma. Kui ei, siis on tegemist juba millegi tähelepanuväärsemaga.

    Hetkel NVLS -7.5% eelturul miinuses.

    - Wall Street Journal kirjutab täna järgmise neg. maiguga loo hiina aktsiatest. Hiina aktsiaturg tõusis artikli sõnul eelmisel aastal 81%, mis on võrreldav Nasdaqi 1999. aasta 86% suuruse tõusuga. Sellel aastal on hinna aktsiaturg 6% tõusnud. Mitmed fondijuhid kutsuvad Hiinat suureks mulliks, mida iseloomustavad kõige paremini sellised internetifirmad nagu SINA; SOHU ja NTES.

    - Linnugripp hakkab oma koledat pead Aasias järjest enam tõstma. Tõenäoliselt hakkab see mõjutama mingil hetkel ka USA tootjate tulemusi ning järgnevatel sulelistega seotud aktsiatel tasub silm peale hoida: TSN (30%), IBA (30%), PPC, RCF, SDA (kanafarmid), SAFM, PDA ning ka CALM (short interest 40%)

    - Nii Smith Barney kui ka UBS Warburg tõstavad täna hommikul DRAMi tootja Microni (MU) reitinguid. Kuuldavasti hakkab DRAMi nõudlus pakkumist varsti ületama ning see peaks tootjate kasumit märkimisväärselt kosutama. Tean, et mõned turuosalised ostsid Micronit selle uudise ootuses juba kuu eest. Huvitav, kauaks ostjaid jätkub?

    - Tundub, et eile õhtul alustas maailmas oma võidukäiku uus MyDoom nimeline viirus. See kergitab täna hommikul turvatarkvara aktsiaid nagu SYMC, NET, SNWL, ISSX ja TMIC.

    Siiski kipub uskuma, et igasugune üle 3% suurune tõus nendes aktsiates annab hea võimaluse neid lühikeseks müües kasumit teenida.

    - LHV Pro all üks pikema ning üks lühema horisondiga uus soovitus.

    - Gary B. Smith:


    - ReVShark:

    Success in the stock market requires a curious mix of emotional attributes. The savvy trader needs to question the conventional wisdom constantly. He needs to set aside his biases and keep a very open mind while seeking a trading edge.

    On the other hand, the astute trader must be obsessive and persistent in doing what works best in the present environment. He takes advantage of the momentum that is in front of him and doesn't let his natural tendency to seek new ideas and approaches lead him astray.

    The current market action is an excellent demonstration of this dilemma. A thinking trader with any inclination at all to try to time the market has to be contemplating how far, how fast and how extended this market is. At the same time there are huge profits to be made by sticking to what has worked for about 10 months now, and chasing stocks higher and higher.

    A simpler way of saying this may be, "Don't overthink the market." Any creative trader can come up with dozens of reasons why the prevailing trend is doomed to die an ugly death. But astute arguments and profound insights have not made the bears a penny in recent months. The traders who have stayed obsessively focused on the action in front of them have been the big winners recently. This is a market that is rewarding persistence and punishing innovation and new ideas.

    You can consider oscillators, volatility, sentiment, stochastics and a wealth of other indicators, but the bottom line is that there continues to be a lot of stocks moving up strongly. If you've have played the momentum in good individual charts you have been a winner and you should keep on doing it until it stops working. The time to become creative is when the old ideas stop working.

    The strong move yesterday surprised bulls and bears alike. There was no clear catalyst for the move to finger, but once we began to run, the shorts covered and the longs did not hesitate to chase stocks to new highs. The only negative was that volume dropped rather sharply, which is an indication that the big money was not participating; this increases the risk of a quick reversal.

    Early earnings reports this morning and last night were generally good but Novellus (NVLS:Nasdaq) is the rotten tomato in the barrel and is dragging down a few other stocks in sympathy.

    European stocks are mostly higher, while Asia was mixed. Oil is down. Spot gold continues its descent and is now back under $405. I've been biding my time waiting for an entry into some of the metal stocks and will continue to watch. The dollar is weak once again but that hasn't helped gold lately.

    We have another barrage of earnings reports to contend with and that will create pockets of opportunity. Consumer confidence numbers are due out at 10 a.m. EST and are likely to produce a market jiggle or two. Tomorrow is the FOMC interest rate decision, which will generate some chatter in the next 24 hours.

    We have a slightly soft open on tap but this is a market that keeps roaring back. Until the tendency to rally late in the day subsides, we have to continue to pray at the altar of the bulls


    Futuurid: Naz-0.19% SP-0.15%


    sB


    Don't take a butcher's advice on how to cook meat. If he knew, he'd be a chef.
    --Andy Rooney

  • Palun EELN -i kohta uuemat infot.
  • ühineks sooviga. Varsti avaldab tulemused, kas tasub oodata tulemused ära või hoopis kasum välja võtta?
  • Henno, tänud vastuse eest.
    Samas jäi lahtiseks see "sama strike". Sama millega? RHT hind oli ju 18.75 ja MAN hind 48. Minu loogika ütleb, et varasemat striket tuleks jagada 0.38 -ga ja siis saab uue strike. On nii? Siis saaks uueks strikeks 52,63, ehk siis ümarguselt 55, lisaks veel see 0.74 dollarit.
  • MO avaldab ka homme tulemused. RJR avaldas täna ja langes ise. MO eriti ei reageerinud. Mida oodata MO'lt. Kuidas tundub MO pilt tehnilise analüüsi seisukohalt?

    Tänan!
  • EELN: Market chatter that Wells Fargo may be interested in E-Loan (3.82 +0.17)


    sB


  • jim

    strike pole vaja korrigeerida kuna aktsiate arv lepingus juba muutus ju

    näiteks kui enne andis 1 leping õiguse osta 100 RHT 20 dollariga, siis nüüd annab 1 leping õiguse osta 38 MAN 20 dollariga, see RHT ja MAN hinnavahe ongi selle koguse muutusega ära klaaritud.

    Ja 0.74 dollarit kantakse Su kontole 1 optsioonilepingu kasutamisel, aga see kui optsiooni kasutamise võimalusest tulenev tulu istub optsiooni hinnas sees sarnaselt turuhinna ja strike vahele, st. optsiooni sisemine väärtus on turuhind-strike+0,74 usd.

  • Henno, vaidleks vastu ikkagi. RHT hind oli 18,75, MAN hind on praegu 48. Kui on nii, et strike jääb endiselt 20 peale, siis sai out-of-money optsioonist sügavalt rahas optsioon ju selle muutusega. Kokku oleks see optsioon siis praegu ju (48 - 20) = 28 dollariga rahas, korrutada see 38 -ga, saab tulemuseks 1064 dollarit, pluss veel ajaväärtus. Ma oleks sellega väga rahul küll, kui see nii oleks, aga hästi ei usu :)
    Nii et jään ikkagi selle juurde, et ka striket peaks korrigeerima. Lepingute arvu muutus tagas selle, et optsiooni beeta jääks samaks. 10% hinnamuutus 20 ja 50 - dollarises aktsias toob ju kaasa erineva muutuse sarnaste optsioonide hindades .. vähendades lepinguga kaasnevate ostuõiguste hulka aga on võimalik seda tasandada.
  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Tenet Healthcare (THC) aktsiad, mis liginesid eelmisel nädalal juba LHV Pro alla pakutud $20 hinnasihile, kauplevad täna eelturul $14-15 kandis. Põhjuseks firma uudis selle kohta, et müüakse maha kuni 30 haiglat ehk neljandiku kõigist nende omanduses olevatest operatsioonidest. Eesmärgiks võlakoorma vähendamine. Samas teatati ka, et seoses uudisega alandatakse 2004 aasta kasumiprognoose märkimisväärselt. Varem oodati 2004. aasta kasumiks 50 senti aktsia kohta.

    Tegelikkuses on tegemist juba mõni päev vana uudisega, mille kohta analüütikud on viimaste päevade jooksul juba kommentaare jaganud. Buy the rumor, sell the news?

    - Amazoni (AMZN) tulemused tulid eile õhtul esmapilgul head, kuid lähemal vaatlusel osutusid need liiga tagasihoidlikuteks, et edasist tõusu nende najal põhjendada. Tulemus 5% kukkumine järeltuturl.

    - Flextronics (FLEX), suurim EMS tegija on tänase hommikul vaieldamatu lemmik. Firma aktsiad on 10% plussis peale eile õhtul avaldatud kvartalitulemusi. Vähemalt kolm investeerimispanka tõstavad reitinguid. Eriti tugev oli tõus firma sõnul kommunikatsiooniseadmete segmendis.

    - Legendaarne Iiri lennuoperaator Ryanair andis täna hommikul Euroopas esimest korda 19 aasta jooksul kasumihoiatuse. Firma aktsiad kukkusid reaktsioonina 25%. Usun, et osa sellest kukkumisest liigub üle ka USA lennufirmade aktsiatele.

    - FOMC otsus intressimäärade kohta tuleb täna. Muutust ei oodata. Dollar kaupleb vähemalt hetkel veel plussis.

    - Gary B. Smith:

    - RevShark:

    Yesterday, for the first time in weeks, the market saw some tangible warning signs of the possibility of a pullback. Several things have occurred recently that should give us pause when considering the ability of this market to keep on climbing without some sort of rest or consolidation.

    One of the hallmarks of a bull market is strength in the late afternoon. When market participants are feeling confident they tend to engage in a flurry of buying at the close. Yesterday we had no afternoon strength. We closed very weak and the dip buyers were not inclined to step up even though there was a significant pullback.

    Another concern about the action yesterday was that it was a day of distribution. That simply means the market declined on volume that was higher than the prior day. An isolated day of distribution is no big deal. It is only when there are several in a fairly short time that we need to be worried. When we start seeing pullbacks on heavier volume on several different days, it is a sign that institutions are locking in profits.

    A third warning sign is the increased volatility we have had in recent days. Markets become increasingly unstable when they are near important turning points. Investors become less confident and more indecisive as they begin to think about taking profits. They aren't quite sure whether they should hold on or do some selling, which creates some quick swings like the one we saw over the last two days. The big gain on Monday was completely reversed on Tuesday. That is a sign that market participants are uncertain about what to do, and may signal a turning point.

    Remember, all of these things are simply warnings. It doesn't mean we should expect a sudden and complete collapse of the market. It simply means that we should increase our vigilance and be prepared to move out of the way should the warnings prove prescient.

    This is where experience comes into play. The mistake the novice makes is to dismiss warnings because similar ones in the recent past have proved to be the equivalent of the boy who cried wolf. Why should we fuss over these things when the market clearly has substantial upside momentum? The folks who have suffered have been the worrywarts who refuse to respect all of the positives that are out there. Blind optimism can be a great way to make money but it's also a great way to lose it when things turn.

    Experience teaches you to keep an open mind and not to become too entrenched in one particular viewpoint. Keep the warning signs in the back of your mind and watch for further ones. Don't overanticipate, but don't be oblivious to the possibility of a turning point. I still have plenty of long positions but I'm cautious and a bit concerned after the action yesterday.

    Another important thing to keep in mind is that a market pullback doesn't have to be anything dramatic. The bears would like you to believe that as soon as this market cracks, we're destined to quickly visit the lows of a year ago. Just like the bulls who think this market will never rest, the bears expecting a crash of epic proportions are very likely to be disappointed.

    Earnings reports produced some early tremors last night but after some reflection the buyers stepped up and are helping to produce a positive open this morning. Most of the major earnings reports are out of the way now with the exception of Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) and a couple others, so we'll have to look toward other market-moving catalysts, such as economic data.

    The most important economic consideration is the FOMC position on interest rates. Its announcement is due out today at 2:15 p.m. EST but it is widely anticipated to simply be a repeat of the prior report. We also have durable orders and new-homes sales data due this morning, which will garner some attention.

    European markets are generally higher and Asian markets lower. Spot gold is trading up 1.80 to 412. Oil is down, the dollar mixed. A big snowstorm on the East Coast may impact trading volume today, which could lead to increased volatility.

    Once again the key to the market mood will be the action the last couple hours of the day. A weak finish will be another important warning sign to contemplate.

     

    Futuurid: Naz0.36% SP0.18%

    sB

    "Hüvasti," ütles rebane. "Siin on minu saladus. See on väga lihtne: ainult südamega näed hästi. Kõige tähtsam on silmale nähtamatu."
    "Kõige tähtsam on silmale nähtamatu," kordas väike prints, et meeles pidada.
    "Aeg, mis sa oma roosi peale kulutasid, tegi sinu roosi nii tähtsaks."
    "Aeg, mis ma oma roosi peale kulutasin... " kordas väike prints, et meeles pidada.
    "Inimesed on unustanud selle tõe," ütles rebane. "Sina aga ei tohi seda unustada. Sa vastutad alati kõige selle eest, mis sa taltsutanud oled. Sa vastutad oma roosi eest..."
    "Ma vastutan oma roosi eest..." kordas väike prints, et meeles pidada.

    -- Väike Prints, Antoine de Saint-Exupery

  • jim, palun loe "risks of standardised options".
  • aga kel mahti, võiks chatti tulla.
  • Millest selline järsk kukkumine?
  • FOMC pidas miitingut.

    As expected, the FOMC left policy rates unchanged with the federal funds rate targeted at the 45 year low of 1.00%. The statement that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period was dropped as the Fed said it "can be patient in removing accommodation" -- again suggesting an on-hold stance in the months/quarters ahead. The next policy meeting is scheduled for March 16. Treasuries got stomped as a result with the thirty-year tumbling over a point and a half and running yields up to 5.041%. Ten-years hit 4.241% from 4.048%.
  • FOMC istungi protokoll avaldati. Absurdne et põhjuseks toodi see, et Fed olevat jätnud avalduses välja fraasi "considerable time", mis nüüd tekitab arvamust nagu hakataks intresse tõstma varem kui seni arvatud. Mis teha - Fed ja Greenspan - need nagu jumalad
  • Tegelikult näitab see majanduse kindlat kosumist, hea koht ostuks...
  • Usun,et täna indeksid kosuvad....eilne järsk langus oli ülereageerimine.....vist liiga optimistlik! No aga mõnede aktsiate puhul kindlasti mitte....
  • EELN saab täna väga soodsalt ..., hea võimalus pikaks minna
  • rick12

    Mõtled ikka tõsiselt või.Kas vähemalt 2,7- lt 3,2-le võiks tagasi minna.
  • Kas keegi on uurinud erinevate uudiste mõju aktsia hinna käitumisele. Selles mõttes, et kujutaks ette et EELN CEO lahkumine on seda tüüpi uudis mida võibolla suur osa selliseid rahulikke, turgu pidevalt mitte jälgivaid väärtusinvestoreid loeb pärastlõunal või üldse alles homme ajalehest. Ja siis otsustab et jah, ei sest firmast vist enam asja ei saa ja asub müüma. Ühesõnaga, point siis selline et kas mingit tüüpi uudistel on selline mitte ainult hetkeline mõju vaid suuremas osas just väikese viitega.
  • Arvan, et tegu on lihtsalt ülereageeringuga, ...

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