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Börsipäev 13.Reede

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  • Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:

    - Delli (DELL) tulemused eile õhtul olid kooskõlas analüütikute ootustega. Eriti torkas silma müüdud notebookide arv, mis kasvas 40% võrreldes eelmise aastaga. Täna hommikul ei ole ma näinud ühtegi negatiivset analüütiku kommentaari firma aktsiate teemal ning vähemalt ühte upgreidi (Raymond James, Strong Buy from Outperform, $41 tgt). Aktsiad on sulgumishinnast 70 senti üleval.

    Samasuguse notebooki müügiga hiilgas oma tulemuste ajal ka IBM (IBM). Tundub, et kõik liiguvad lauaarvutite pealt sinna suunda. Üks huvitav firma, SYNA omab 50% turuosa notebookide puhul kasutatavate hiireasendajate (touchpads etc) juures. FWIW.

    - Kuna Delli numbrid olid head, paistis Nvidia (NVDA) käibehoiatus esimeseks kvartaliks eriti naljakana. Firma näeb oma käivet vähenemas 0-5% võrra (q/q). Põhjenduseks Xbox-i väga tagasihoidlik müük.

    Siiski on NVIDIA loos veel üks tähelepanu vääriv point. Notebookidesse paigaldatavate graafikakaartide pealt tulev käive näitas nullkasvu (q/q). Firmal on olnud probleeme notebook-i turule tungimisega, millest räägib ka vaid 7% turuosa (vs. 28% lauaarvutite puhul). Kuna tundub, et lauaarvutite pealt liigutakse järjest enam notebookide peale siis peaks NVIDIA selles suhtes midagi kiiresti ette võtma.

    - Imclone (IMCL) kaupleb täna hommikul 35% kõrgemal hinnast, mil kauplemine peatati. SEC uurib, millest oli eilne 30% kukkumine enne Erbituxi müügiloa saamist tingitud. Versioon, mida olen ise kuulnud oli järgmine: IMCL palus Nasdaq-i käest luba kauplemise peatamiseks, et Erbituxi uudis välja lasta. See aga lekkis ning turuosalised arvasid, et tegemist on halvauudisega (Teised sarnased firmad nagu DNA, MEDI jt polnud halti võimalust kasutanud suurte uudiste puhul). Tulemus: 10 pt. allpool lõksus terve hulk lühikesi positsioone.

    Bristol Myers (BMY) saab 60% Erbituxi käibest, mis võib ulatuda $1.5 - 2 miljardini. Siiski on täna paar analüütikut väljas nupukestega, millest üks on downgrade (FBR, Underperform from Mkt Perform) ning teises soovitatakse vahetada BMY Merck (MRK)-i vastu. Pole nõus kummagagi. LHV Pro valik.

    - USA meedia spekuleerib Comcasti (CMCSA) ja Disney (DIS) teemadel. Disney õigustatud hinnaks spekuleeritakse 28-38$ ja usutakse, et CMCSA esialgne pakkumine oli pakkumistelaine algus. Samuti spekuleeritakse, et Disney lükkab ühinemispakkumise üldse tagasi.

    - Teine suur ülevõtmine, AT&T Wireless (AWE), Cingulari või Vodafone poolt peaks lõppema täna. Väidetavalt plaanib Vodafone pakkuda AWE eest 12,5$, kuid Cingular pidavat tegema veel kõrgema pakkumise.

    - Legendaarne Barron's kirjutab täna, et semiconductor-equipment tootjad on ülehinnatud. KLAC, AMAT, ASML.

    - Financial Times kirjutab, et Microsofti Windows operatsioonisüsteemi koodi olevat müüdud vabalt internetis. MSFT uurib asja.

    - WSJ arvates on PSUN natuke liiga kallis. Paar aastat tagasi vallutas USA surfimaania ja Pacific Sunwear hakkas valmistama surfivarustust, kuid praegu hakkab trend taanduma ja PSUN on natuke kallivõitu. Aktsia lõpetas eile kauplemise 24,84$ juures, WSJ arvates võiks hind olla 16,5$. Aktsia eelturul pool punkti all.

    Trade Balance -$42.5 bln vs -$40.0 bln consensus

    sK.

    There are those of us who are always about to live. We are waiting until things change, until there is more time, until we are less tired, until we get a promotion, until we settle down -- until, until, until. It always seems as if there is some major event that must occur in our lives before we begin living."

    -- George Sheehan 

    One of the great difficulties of the stock market is that if we wish to be involved we almost always have to act before we are completely comfortable and fully ready. The state of perfection that will allow us to act fully on our theories and beliefs never quite arrives. It is very easy to find good reasons why we should continue to wait before doing anything. We sit back and hold on because it isn't quite the right time yet. 

    The tendency toward inertia is what causes the biggest losses during a bear market. When things began to slide, many investors find a steady supply of reasons why they shouldn't act. They talk themselves into trusting that things would work out fine if they just stay patient. Soon they find themselves in a big hole that will take months, if not years, to escape from. 

    There is no question that patience is often the best course of action in the stock market but like all positive attributes and habits it can taken too far. In the stock market it can be very beneficial to push yourself to take some minor actions before you are fully ready. Small partial buys or sells help you test the waters and keeps you attuned to what is happening. 

    When your gut starts telling you that it is almost time to start adjusting your holdings, you can gain a much better feel for the market by venturing in on an incremental basis. If you feel the market is close to topping out, put on a couple small shorts as markers that allow you to track the action. You may be too early or you might just be flat out wrong but a little initial action can ward off inertia and also help you avoid the inclination to be aggressive too soon. Once you see how your pilot positions are working, you can pursue them more actively or close them and move on. 

    The market has a frustrating tendency of moving before we are fully prepared. We watch the market scenario that we envisioned play out, but fail to participate because we aren't quite ready for it. 

    We are in an environment where there is a fairly high level of uncertainty. It is not prudent to make big bets, but if we stay active and take some small actions now we will be better prepared to profit when tradable trends develop. Stay patient -- but also stay in the game. And don't be so patient that you become comatose and incapable of moving quickly and decisively when the time is right. 

    The Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) conference call went well last night and is helping to boost the market this morning. The key to the call appears to be comments about an improving corporate IT spending environment. The analysts are saying nice things, there are some upgrades and the stock is trading up about 70 cents after dipping last night. 

    Asian markets are doing well while Europe is mixed. Oil is up, gold down and the dollar mixed. The University of Michigan (go Wolverines!) consumer sentiment survey is due out at 9:45 am EDT, and it can produce a market tremor or two. 

    It is going to be very interesting today to see if Dell can get the big-cap technology stocks moving again. They have been the laggards of late and if this market is going to do something major to the upside these stocks must participate.

    RevShark

  • Michigani tarbijausaldusindeks 93.1 punkti, oodati 103.3 punkti. Veel üks põnts dollarile. Samas aktsiaturule ehk soodnegi kuna intressid püsivad ehk kauem madalad.
  • LONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Cingular , the second-largest U.S. mobile phone company, has won an auction battle for AT&T Wireless , its smaller rival, after outbidding Vodafone Group Plc with a $15-per-share bid, a source familiar with the situtation told Reuters.
    The bid values AT&T Wireless, the third-largest U.S. mobile phone group, at about $40.7 billion.
    "That's what we've been told, but it's a fluid situation," the source said.
    Vodafone was not immediately available for comment.

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