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Börsipäev 20. veebruar - inflatsioon pead tõstmas

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Pilk eelturule:- Makroandmetest avaldati täna tarbijahinnaindeks, mis oli jaanuaris aasta lõikes kiireima kasvuga. Seda mõjutasid eelkõige energiakandjate järsk hinnatõus. Jaanuaris küündis inflatsiooninumber 0.5%, mis tähendab inflatsiooniohu kasvu ehk kõrgemaid intressimäärasid. Hea uudis dollarile, halb aktsiaturgudele ning võlakirja hindadele.

    - Aktsiaturud on peale eilset langust kerges põrkes, Nasdaqi futuurid 4.5 punkti ja S&P futuurid 2 punkti plussis.

    -Arvutitootja Hewlett Packard (HPQ) avaldas eile oma majandustulemused, mis vastasid ootustele, firma käive oli 19.5 miljardit ning kasum 1.1 miljardit. Aasta tagasi suudeti käivet teha vaid 17.9 miljardit. Tulevikuprognoosid olid samuti kooskõlas varasemate prognoosidega, aktsia siiski 1.5% miinuses.

    -Dollar euro vastu taas tugevnemas ning 1.265 usd/eur tase püsimas.

    Gary B. Smith:

     

    Rev Shark:

    Yesterday the bulls were given an excellent opportunity to run the market to multiyear highs, but they missed their chance and went down in flames. What looked like a very promising start turned into an ugly technical picture by the time the final bell was rung. Yesterday's broad and vigorous failure to capitalize on good news has now given the edge to the bears. 

    Like the bulls yesterday morning, the bears now have the chance to do something significant. It has been some time since the nattering nabobs of negativity have been able to do anything meaningful but they now have a very good opportunity to press to the downside while the bulls scratch their heads and wonder what happened. 

    Technically the S&P 500 is sitting right on a major uptrend line and the Nasdaq is testing its 50-day simple moving average again. The Nasdaq was able to bounce off that line earlier this month but with each test the support weakens. The technical picture is precarious and if the bears can follow through they will cause some significant damage. 

    Yesterday morning I received a number of notes from readers telling me that I should be more positive about this market, that things weren't that bad and that my caution was unjustified. Cody Willard echoed similar sentiments in a couple of notes he posted yesterday. 

    Frankly, I think the bulls are right in the longer term. I'm optimistic about the future of this market and expect to see new highs at some point this summer. However, I have found that the best way to make money is to focus on what is in front of me and to leave the long-term prognostication to others. My goal each day is to put aside my prejudices and biases and look at the market for objective clues about the shorter-term direction. 

    My goal as an investor is to protect my capital, and that's a job that must be done on a daily basis. The better I am at holding on to gains and avoiding losses when the market weakens, the faster I will be able to drive my portfolio to new highs when the trading environment improves. 

    One of the major reasons for many market participants' losses is the inclination to shrug off short-term problems because of preconceived opinions about where we are heading in the longer term. They dig a hole for themselves because they are certain that things will work out. 

    I have found that if I take care of today and trade what is in front of me I will be well positioned to take advantage of what tomorrow may offer. Don't let your long-term prejudices blind you to the truth of what is happening today. The stock market tells us a story every day and if we listen carefully we will greatly outperform those who claim to know what the future holds. 

    As might be expected after the steep selloff to conclude yesterday's action, we have a slight bounce to start the action today. If the bears have truly gained the upper hand watch for them to sell aggressively into any early strength. Their success will depend on whether they can beat back any dip buyers that emerge. 

    Yesterday we saw how quickly the bulls squandered their advantage. The bears have to avoid a similar fate today if they hope to crack this market. The bulls are wounded but the bears have been impotent for so long they may have forgotten how to press their advantage when they have one. 

    We are in a very technically vulnerable place and for over a year this market has refused to capitulate to the doom-and-gloomers. Will it be different this time? 

    Overseas action took its cues from the U.S. markets and was generally lame. We have the CPI report due this morning but there is very little new on the agenda other than that. It should be a very interesting battle. Let the games begin.

     

  • Meeldetuleks kõigile optsiooniomanikele, et täna optsioonireede ja veebruarikuu optsioonid lõppemas !
  • Dollar rokib - juba krooni suhtes 12.47 (EUR 1.2544)
  • EUR/USD ja indeksid korralik paarisrakend. Päris tihti liikumine yhes suunas.
  • Tänane päevateema oleks dollari tugevnemine, kuigi see võiks olla pigem ka nädalateema. hetkel kurss juba 1.253 usd/eur, peamine põhjus lühikeste positsioonide katmine, kuid ka jaapani jeeni oluline nõrgenemine peale teadet, et Jaapani valitsus tõstab terrorismiohu taseme aasta kõrgeimale tasemele. Päevaga on dollar euro vastu tugevnenud 1.5% ning jaapani jeeni vastu 1.95%, liikumised mis valuutaturgudel on harukordses.
  • Greenspan toetab kõnega kergelt turge - ta kinnitab, et näeb väga tugevaid paranemise märke USA tööjõuturul.
  • 60 minutis oli päris huvitav lugu USA pensionifondide investeeringutest - kōvasti pappi on pandud hr. Pōōsa poolt terrorismi toetavateks riikideks kvalifitseeritud maade majandusse.

    Nüüd vōib sellega probleeme tekkida kui USA otsustab neist maadest mōnda asuda "korrale kutsuma", huvitav situatsioon: hr. Pōōsa tegevus vōib kahjustada USA kodanike pensioniks inevsteerimist, kuid sealsed pensioniks investeerijad on toetanud terrorismi?
  • VAPH-näide sellest,mida lühikeseks müük võib korda saata!
  • Mille peale päeva lõpus LOOK rallis, ei leidnud küll mingit uudist ?
  • QQQ- MACD joon (6 kuud) on päris pikalt allpool indikaatorit, eile põrutas 0 ka läbi. Aktsia nats allpool 50 EMA. Esmaspäeval läheb põnevaks. EMA13 ei ole tükk aega alpool EMA50-st, läheneb päris hea nurga all. Aktsia ise juba allpool EMA13-st. Tehniliselt on pilt kole, aga masside reaktsioon ei oska ette arvata. Ehk on kõigil siiber karudest ja pushitakse jälle aktsiaid tõusma, ehkki usun endiseltet silo hakkab otsa saama.

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