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Börsipäev 26. veebruar

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  • - USA eelturgudel on valitsev negatiivne meeleolu ning futuurid on kerges miinuses. Oma osa sellel majandusstatistikal, mille järgi kestvuskaupade tellimused kukusid jaanuaris 1.8%, samas kui oodati 1.5% tõusu.

    - Viimasel ajal on väga suurt tähelepanu pööratud töötu abiraha taotlejate arvule. Viimase nädalaga kasvas see number 6000 inimese võrra 350 000 taotlejale.

    -Dollar on endiselt tugevnemas, Saksa kantsleri sõnavõtt intresside alandamiseks küll toetas dollarit, kuid esialgu pidas tehniline tase 1.235 usd/eur juures vastu ning euro suutis suure osa kaotatust tagasi teha.

    -Cannes toimuv mobiilsidesektori 3G konverents toetab eelkõige Euroopa mobiilitootjaid Nkia (NOK), Ericsson  (ERICY) ja Alcatel (ALA). Nokia ja Motorola tutvustasid konverentsil oma  uuemaid telefone. Goldman Sachs kommenteeris klientidele, et mobiilside kasv esimeses kvartalis ületab tunduvalt ootusi.

    -McDonalds  (MCD) teatas, et uuendas Olümpiamängude sponsorlepingut, kuid detaile selle kohta rohkem ei avaldanud.

    Gary B. Smith:

    Rev Shark:

    Like many other pursuits, great success in the stock market requires the ability to quickly shift your behavior from own extreme to another. Careful, detailed strategic planning must eventually give way to bold, aggressive action if you wish to conquer the market beast. 

    Many people are very good at detailed planning and others are good at acting boldly and decisively, but most of us have to work hard to develop our ability to make a seamless shift from one to the other. The personality types that excel at carefully planning an attack are often too cautious and risk adverse to implement it effectively, while the folks who live for aggressive action often find detailed planning and research to be drudgery. 

    What are your inclinations? Do you constantly itch to be in the heat of battle or are you inclined to carefully plan what you might do but never are quite ready to take the plunge? Personally, I need to work harder on my strategic planning. I have a bias toward action and I have to remind myself constantly to stay patient. 

    Right now we are at a time in the market where we should be focusing on developing our plan of attack. There is not enough clarity at the moment for bold, aggressive activity. There are always trading opportunities to be found and we should capitalize on them, but in certain environments it is best to play small, stay patient and carefully plan while we wait for the set-ups and opportunities that offer the best odds. 

    The problem with the market now is that we have few signs of upside traction. Momentum has been tough to find for a couple of weeks now. The bounce yesterday was a good example. It came on surprisingly weak volume, lacking the sort of intensity that gives us confidence that it can continue. 

    On the other hand the Nasdaq has found support at the 2000 level. If we continue to hold that mark we may be able to regain some drive to the upside but if it cracks, then look out below. 

    You can find plenty of compelling arguments for either an upside or downside scenario. Jim Cramer probably is a good representation of the bullish view. He doesn't feel this is a "fulcrum" moment. He doesn't see any news to justify a bearish tilt. 

    It is much easier to find folks with a bearish view of where this market is heading. I'm leaning that way myself in the shorter term. Since topping out in mid-January we have been undergoing a change in buying behavior. Dip buyers are reticent and speculative action is drying up. I've very concerned about the Nasdaq's ability to hold the 2000 level. Failure there would likely put a lot of pressure on this market. 

    In the early going we have another mixed open. Overseas markets were peppy, with chips and oils leading the way. Gold continues to falter as the dollar shows strength. We have another of economic reports due this morning. Durable goods, weekly unemployment and new-home sales should give market participants something to think about.

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