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Börsipäev 27. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • - USA eelturud on kerges plussis, viimase kvartali kogutoodangu kasv oli USA-s oodatust kiirem. Kuu tagasi avaldati 4% kasvunumber, mida paljud pidasid ülepaisutatuks ning oodati selle numbri ülevaatamist allapoole. Täna teatati aga uueks numbriks hoopis 4.1%. 2003 aastal kasvas USA majandus 3.1% ning saavutas mahuks 10.99 triljonit dollarit.

    -Ülevõtmised jätkuvad: biotehnoloogiafirma Genzyme (GENZ) teatas Ilex Oncology (ILOX) ostmisest miljardi dollari eest ehk 26 dollarit aktsia kohta.

    -UBS alandas Coca Cola (KO) reitingut neutraalse peale ning alandas ka firma selle aasta kasumiprognoose. Peamiseks põhjuseks tuuakse firmajuhi lahkumist ning  võimalikke segadusi firma uue juhi leidmisel.

    -Reklaami ja meediasektorile prognoosis selleks aastaks head tulemust maailma 3. ajalehtede/ajakirjade väljaandja WPP Group (WPPGY). Nende sõnul on isegi Jaapan ja Euroopa elumärke andmas ning USA turu areng on igati positiivne. USA reklaamiturgu toidavad presidendivalimised, olümpiamängud ja Euroopas on turule toeks ka jalgpalli EM. Turu aastakasvuks prognoositakse 3-4%. See ehk ka positiivne paberitootjatele.

    Gary B. Smith:

    Rev Shark:

    Can we have confidence in this market? Is it a good idea to trust the bulls to pull off another quick recovery like they have done so many times during the past year? Is the character of the market finally undergoing a change or is this just another dip that should be bought with confidence? 

    We are at a very interesting juncture here. We have pulled back hard over the past six weeks. We bounced once very strongly when Chairman Greenspan made comments about the likelihood of continued low interest rates but that bounce failed miserably when good news from Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq) was sold aggressively. The Nasdaq sold off on volume and quickly hit support at the 2000 level, where it has been holding nicely for a few days now. The million-dollar question now is whether the bulls build on that support level and turn the market back up. Have we seen the lows? 

    One of the most interesting things about the recent pattern is that the failed bounce off the Greenspan comments is the first time in the course of this year-long rally that we did not quickly recover and make new highs. If you look back at the Nasdaq chart you will see that this is the first time in nearly a year where we had a lower high and a lower low following a dip. 

    Is that significant? I think it is. It indicates a weakening in the ability of the dip buyers. It also creates tougher technical overhead that we must contend with. My confidence in this market would increase quite a bit if the Nasdaq were able to move through the 2050 area on good volume. 

    The nice thing about this market is that we have some very clear technical levels to help guide us. Key support is 2000; key resistance is 2050. The fact that we have bounced off the 2000 level on low volume has made me skeptical of the ability of the bulls to cut through the 2050 area. Throw in the fact that it is the end of the month and we probably have some window-dressing, and we must stay skeptical. 

    One positive is that there has been some better action in a number of momentum stocks the last couple of days. Biotechnology did well yesterday and the small-cap indices outperformed. It very well might just be oversold bounces that made for some good trading, but until the Nasdaq paints a better technical picture, we have to keep a tight rein on our positions. 

    Early indications are positive. Asian markets were strong overnight, with the Nikkei posting its biggest gain since mid-December. The move was fueled by economic data, indicating increased industrial production. European markets also were positive as the dollar stayed steady against the euro. Gold is back down to the $392 level and oil is holding steady. 

    It's Friday and the last day of the month, which is a good setup for some volatility. However, until the Nasdaq moves through either 2000 or 2050, the intermediate trend is going to be very murky.

     

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