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Börsipäev 1.märts Intelile madalam reiting

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  • -USA eelturud on kerges plussis ning futuurid indikeerivad 0.3% plussis avanemist.

    -Tarbijate kulutuste kasv aeglustus jaanuaris, kuigi maksukärped oleksid lubanud suuremat kasvu. Jaanuaris kasvasid tarbijakulutused 0.4% (detsembris 0.5%).

    -JP MOrgan alandas nii Inteli (eelturul -1.2%) kui AMD (-2.6%) reitinguid. Inteli uueks reitinguks sai neutraalne Jaanuaris kasvas pooljuhtide ülemaailmne müük eelmise jaanuariga võrreldes 27.4%, käibenumbriks kujunes 15.6 miljardit, detsembriga võrreldes käive vähenes 2.4% (hooajaline langus oli oodatud).

    -Kell 17.00 avaldatakse veebruari tööstussektori ISM indeks ja ehituskulutuste indeks.

    Gary B. Smith:

    Rev Shark:

    The Nasdaq has been struggling for about five weeks now. After hitting a high on Jan. 26, the index has been unable to regain the powerful momentum it had to start the year. Alan Greenspan offered some help with soothing comments about interest rates on Feb. 6 but after holding for about a week the bounce failed and we turned back down. Last Monday we took another sharp dive and now have spent the last four days inching up ever so slightly. 

    In the shorter term there clearly are some technical hurdles to overcome. Most notably, the Nasdaq needs to move back over the 2050 area. We moved toward challenging that overhead but lacked any real oomph to make a serious run. If we roll back over and challenge the 2000 support levels once again, things will look very dire. If we hit 2000, the odds of holding are not good. 

    As I said several times last week we are in technical no man's land at the moment. The overhead and support levels are clear and until one falls it behooves us to trade cautiously as we wait for a clearer trend to emerge. 

    However, when I step back and look at the longer-term picture I'm optimistic that we will have some very good trading to the upside within the next few months. After a year-long rally the market badly needed a rest. The longer we correct the better the foundation will be for future gains. 

    I found it very encouraging as I went through charts this weekend to see so many companies that have posted solid earnings reports pulling back to support levels. It is not hard to find good growth stocks that are 30%-40% or more off their highs. They are working on building new bases and if and when see the return of some momentum to this market they should perform well. 

    That doesn't mean this market can't correct further. The 2000 level of the Nasdaq is extremely important. If we breach that it is going to scare a few folks, which will cause some downward pressure, and it will take some work to correct the technical picture. However, a little fear and negativity will eventually be a positive. We have had too many bulls and too much optimism for too long. Even after struggling for five weeks the level of complacency seems fairly high. A wall of worry to climb would be a positive. 

    One encouraging sign in the shorter term is that there was some good small-cap action at the end of last week. The small-caps showed relative strength and some of the little guys made very nice moves. Speculative action in the secondary and smaller stocks is an indication buyers are becoming more aggressive in looking for places to put their money. We'll have to keep an eye on breadth and the small-cap indices. If this market is going to turn up they will be the first to react. 

    We have another upbeat Monday morning on tap. Overseas markets are acting well and futures are indicating a positive open despite a downgrade of the semiconductor sector including Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) by JP Morgan. The Morgan analyst is concerned about notebook sales and doesn't think the Intel will raise guidance in its midquarter update later this week. 

    Obviously, chip stocks will be a very important group to watch today. Like the Nasdaq, the group has been struggling lately. A breach of the 490 level of the SOX would be a technical red flag. 

    I'll be focusing on breadth, small-cap speculation and the semiconductors as my primary clues of where this market is headed, but until we break (one way or the other) out of the current trading range from Nasdaq 2000 to 2050, I'll keep time frames short and stops tight. There are opportunities to be had but the shorter-term picture is murky at best.

     

  • Ma arvan, et tänane indikaator on pooljuhid (SMH, SOX), kui nad suudavad kosuda (pärast JPM downgrade'i), siis on see hea märk, kui mitte, võivad kogu turu kaasa vedada.
  • Kuld 1.3% plussis ja taas üle olulise $400 taseme tõusnud, LHV Traderis kasutage kulla liikumise jälgmiseks futuuri sümboliga YG.
  • IDSA, VAPH, UFAB...deja vu all over again inimesed?

    sB
  • kas kuskil on koht kus sinu lühendite tähendusi lugeda ka saab?
    VVEKSAVN
  • Millised lühendid meile raskusi valmistavad? :)

    - Need neljatähelised asjad on aktsiate sümbolid. Mõtle kui raske oleks iga kord graafikut ette tõmmates kirjutada textboxi firma täisnimi.

    - deja vu all over again. Noh..Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra, USA (minu jaoks tundmatu) endine pesapallitäht sai selle naljaka ütlusega maha. Viitab sündmuste kordumisele.

    Kokkuvõttes: Keegi mäletab 1999/2000 kuidas täiesti suvalised aktsiad hakkasid mõne päeva jooksul läbi tegema 100-1000% tõuse kui mo-mo raha neid ründama juhtus?


    sB

    VVEKSAVN - 5 minutit arvamist ei andnud tulemusi. äkki aitad?

  • IDSA ehk Industrial Services of America aktsia käitumine on minu kui efektiivse turu teooriasse uskujale tõeliselt ärritav. Reedel 26.02 teatab ettevõte, et direktorite nõukogu kiitis heaks aktsiate spliti 2:1 (toimub 16 märtsil). Uudis ise ei tohiks aktsiale mõju avaldada, kuid hind kerkis päevaga 25>35, täna hommikul taas 35>45 peale. Müüks lühikeseks? Ei julge, ettevõte, mille turuväärtus on 63 miljonit dollarit ja mis on sattunud spekulantide huviorbiiti on minu jaoks liialt riskantne.
  • väike vihje
    see ei olnud sümbol

    varsti vist eesti keel selline ainult välja näebki

    nojah olen loll küll sellise asja peale et need võiks sümbolid olla ise muidugi ei tulnud :)
    viskasin korraks pilgu peale ja pidasin neid mingiteks sellisteks väljenditeks nagu ASAP jne

    ps. endal läks ka aega 2 minutit et meelde tuletada mis lause see oli :)
  • mis see mo-mo money on?
    mi-mo akki?

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