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Börsipäev 5. märts - tööjõuraport

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  • - Tööjõuraport avaldati täna kell 15.30 ja see põrmustas mitmed lootused kiirele tööjõuturu paranemisele. Loodetud 130 000 töökoha asemel loodi vaid 21 000 uut töökohta. See oli isegi madalaim kui kõige negatiivsem prognoos ette nägi. Tööpuuduse näitaja jäi 5.6% tasemele. Lisaks veel Inteli poolt avaldatud oodatust nõrgem prognoos ning turud on avanemas korralikus miinuses.

    - Dollarile tähendas kehv tööjõuraport 1.3% nõrgenemist ning seda poole tunni jooksul. Võlakirjaturul hüppas 10 aastase võlakirja 42 baaspunkti ning intressimäär kukkus 3.85 protsendini.

    -Intel alandas oma esimese kvartali käibeprognoosi 8-8.2 miljardi dollari peale (varasem prognoos 7.9-8.5 miljardit). Jp Morgan jäi endiselt oma neutraalse soovituse juurde .

    -S&P alandas Sun Microsystems`i (SUNW)krediidireitingu rämpsvõlakirja tasemele.

    -McDonalds (MCD) teatas, et  firma müük kasvas aastatagusega 23%, USA-s kasvas müük 20%.

    Gary B. Smith

    Rev Shark:

    Good morning. Our first piece of important news failed to ignite any major excitement. Intel's (INTC:Nasdaq) guidance was a bit softer than many had hoped, and the stock is trading down slightly this morning. The one major positive this stock has going for it is that a lot of folks would like to buy it on a pullback. There is healthy support around the 200-day moving average, which is at $28. I would not be surprised to see buyers attack. 

    The big jobs report is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST. The key number is the increase in nonfarm payrolls. It expected to come in at 125,000, but the "whisper" number is probably around 150,000. 

    This number can cut both ways. If it's too strong, it will stir worries about how soon interest rates will rise and pressure the market. If it is too weak it will call into question the health of the economic recovery. 

    Recent action makes me think this market is looking for a good excuse to rally. A "not too hot and not too cold" jobs report may be the trigger. There probably will be some early swings when the reports hit, but if it's close to the consensus I believe we'll see some positive action. 

    If the jobs report is OK, the bulls are in a very good position for an aggressive attack. The technical picture looks healthy. The Nasdaq made a higher low and managed to close around 2050 again. There has been a lot of strong action in small-caps and the Russell 2000 is on the verge of a major breakout through a multiple top. The S&P 500 is also poised to crack a triple top. 

    The main thing we've been missing lately is volume. A volume pickup on a breakout would attract the technical buyers. Although the indices have not pulled back all that much, there are lots of individual stocks that have made very big corrections and are sitting at support. 

    The dynamics are in place for something very interesting to happen today. Once the market digests the news and settles down, it is likely to be a good time for fairly aggressive action. The small-cap and speculative action we've seen in recent days suggests it may be the right time to become more aggressive. We'll see how things look after the news is out, but I like the setup and the mood appears conducive to some buying. 

    Overseas markets are generally higher. Strength in the dollar is helping Asian importers and upbeat comments from Nokia (NOK:NYSE) is helping telecom stocks in Europe. 

    I'm running behind schedule this morning. I'll be back after the jobs report hits.

  • Päris huvitav reaktsioon - ehmatas nigelate uudiste peale ja nüüd on vaikselt kosunud. Kui päeva lõpus sell-offi ei tule, on sentiment ikka päris positiivne.
  • nagu olen aru saanud, siis selle numbri deviation - ootused vs. reaalsus on alati suht kõrge... tegeimst ju siiski ühe kuu statistikaga
  • Väga üllatav reaktsioon siiski polnud: tööjõuturu olukord kehv > majandus taastub loodetust aeglasemalt> intressimäär püsib kauem madalana>madal intress aktsiaturgudele positiivne. Samas Inteli nõrgem vahearuanne oleks võinud luua olukorra, kus intressidele tähelepanu vähe ning sell off oleks olnud paratamatu. Hetkel meeleolu siiski positiivne.

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