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Börsipäev 11. märts - põrge?

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • -USA turgudel on oodata languse jätkumist, Hispaanias toimunud terroriakt on alla toonud Euroopa turud, mis mõjutavad USA turgude avanemist. Nasdaqi futuurid on 15 punktiga miinuses. Euroopas on tugevaima löögi saanud lennunduse ja turismisektori aktsiad. Terroriohu suurenemine on aga ohtlik kogu turule, eriti pärast tehniliselt oluliste tasemete kukkumist nädala alguses.

    -Töötu abiraha taotluste arv kahanes eelmisel nädalal 6000 võrra 341 000 taotluse peale

    -Nortel Networks (NT) teatas, et aastaaruande avaldamine hilineb, lisaks mainiti et mõned numbrid vajavad ülevaatamist. Aktsia on eelturul üle 10% miinuses.

    -Otsingumootor Looksmart (LOOK) on konkurentidega sarnaselt tuleviku suhtes optimistlik. Firma tõstis oma esimese kvartali prognoose 21-23 miljonile dollarile (varasema 16-18 miljoni asemel). Kahjum peaks kujunema aga oodatust väiksemaks 10-12 miljonit varasema 12-14 miljoni dollari asemel. Aktsia eelturul 20% plussis, kuid Mamma.com (MAMA) edu vaevalt et täna kordub.

    Jp Morgan tõstis Qualcomm`i (QCOM) kasumiprognoosi, mis peaks aktsia kohta küündima 1.78 dollarini (2004 aasta). Aktsia eelturul siiski protsendi miinuses.

    Gary B. Smith:

    Rev Shark:

    For the first time in over a year the market is showing some signs of real fear. Although many indicators such as the put/call ratio and volatility indices are not at severe levels, the broad selloff yesterday on heavy volume indicates that there are some strong emotions swirling about. 

    Investors' fears are being further fed this morning by a major terrorist attack in Madrid, Spain. It is unclear who is responsible for this but the death toll is substantial and it has shaken world markets. 

    As the market has melted down the question on the minds of many is whether the fear has gotten bad enough that we should start looking for some support. Are good stocks being sold down to bargain levels yet? Is there enough panic out there so that we can feel comfortable that those who are inclined to sell have already sold or is there still a good supply of investors who have yet to be sufficiently frightened? 

    One of the things that makes this analysis particularly difficult is that we are not that far removed from the awful action of the bear market. We have been rallying for over a year now but many of us clearly recall how painful and never-ending the pullbacks felt during the three-year-long bear market. Rallies didn't merely undergo corrections from 2000 to 2003 -- they collapsed. Many of us won't be too quick to forget what that felt like and are determined to not let it happen to us again. 

    Now that the indices, particularly the Nasdaq, are undergoing their first major correction in a very long time the perma-bears are happy to prey on our fears. They will tell us once again that things have really never changed and that doom and gloom lies ahead. The glass-is-half-empty folks will always be with us and we should be aware of their arguments. They will always pop up when things look bleak to remind us that they told us so. 

    Regardless of your feelings about the market we can't dismiss the impact that the huge rally over the past year has had on investors. Emotions have undergone a change. Many who had given up on the market now feel differently and it is unlikely we will see the same sort of collapse we saw during the bear market days. That doesn't mean we can't pull back even more but the emotional make-up of this market is quite different than it was a year ago. Buyers are still lurking out there. 

    So what do you on a day like this when an ugly open adds to the pain of the broad weakness over the past few days? Do we panic and run for the hills? Do we step up aggressively and anticipate a turning point? 

    Panic selling is rarely the right course of action. You generally want to act counter to the emotions on a morning like this. On the other hand it is extremely important not to let losses grow to the point where they are having a severe effect on your capital. Maintain your trading discipline but try to evaluate objectively the emotions at play. The balancing act between protecting capital and not selling into panic is a tough one. Maintaining objectivity is the key. 

    I'm very inclined to buy this weak open for at least a quick bounce. When the doom and gloom is so thick -- on top of already substantial weakness -- you can bet the contrarians are thinking of doing some buying. This is a very strong setup for a bounce and at the first signs that one is materializing, watch for the buyers to pile on. 

    However, even if we do see a quick bounce there is still plenty of technical damage out there, and we can't be too quick to load up again. After such a sharp breakdown the likelihood is that sellers and shorts are going to hit the first bounce fairly hard. It's only after we find a support level and test it a bit that we can start looking for the trend to turn back up. 

    Overseas markets are being hit very hard this morning on the terrorism news and the weakness we had in the U.S. markets yesterday afternoon. Oil is up, gold down, the dollar is weak and bonds continue to rally. 

    Thanks to Cody for filling in yesterday. My cable and phone lines were blown down and I was left stranded without a connection. There is nothing more invigorating than starting the day having no idea what is happening. 

    We have our work cut out for us. Buckle up. It's going to be a wild ride.

  • Mitmed turuosalised näevad tänast põrget avanemisel kui lühikeseks müügi võimalust,

    FWIW


    sB
  • Kui tänane börsipäev kujuneb selliseks nulli lähedal passimiseks, siis väga oluliseks kujuneb päeva lõpp - see määrab päeva jõudude vahekorra.
  • Väike aga huvitav play on Palatin Tech (PTN). Firma peamiseks ravimikandidaadiks erektsiooniravim PT-141 (Phase II), mis erineb konkurentidest Viagra, Cialis jne selle poolest, et seda pihustatakse ninna.

    Lisaks sellele peaks firma lähiajal saama müügiloa ka oma esimesele käibegeneraatorile (LeuTech, $120 mln peak sales estimate). Analüüsifirma CIBC alustas täna hommikul Palatini katmist (üldse esimesena) Sector Outperformer reitingu ning whopping $8 hinnasihiga. Selline hinnasiht on $3-4 aktsia jaoks päris positiivne sündmus ja aktsiad on selle najal ka üleval.

    Igal juhul huvitav firma,


    sB

    Kes soovib, siis sellele võin lähipäevil ka analüüsi saata lähemaks tutvumiseks. sure.bet@lhv.ee
  • Nortel (NT) on päris hämmastav, uudised olid üsna viletsad, kuid aktsia on tänasest põhjast juba pea +10% tõusnud.
  • Indeksfutuuridel täna yleminekupäev juuni futuuridele.
  • 08:36 PSFT: Peoplesoft business tracking below plan - Midwest Research (19.19 )

    According to Midwest Research, PeopleSoft's Feb. business was below plan, with no visible up-tick in Mar. The firm's contacts noted that customers resisted buying PeopleSoft software as they are uncertain about the future of PeopleSoft as a co. Contacts also told analyst that customers postponed and in some cases cancelled meeting with PeopleSoft sales team for now, as customers expressed serious concerns over the uncertainty of the outcome of the protracted legal battle that may ensue between co and Oracle. The firm maintains Neutral rating, with Negative stance.


    Väikese analüüsifirma tähelepanuväärne nupuke. Miks? Sest PSFT suutis selle peale suurt langust maha raputada. Lisaks sellele avaldab täna õhtul peale sulgemist oma tulemused Oracle (ORCL). Mäletatavasti püüdis ORCL PSFT-i $26/ak ära osta, kuid nii PSFT kui ka DOJ (Dept of Justice) on sellele vastu olnud. Homme on see päev, mil lõpeb ORCL pakkumine.

    Ma usun, et täna õhtul võib ORCL alati karismaatiline CEO Larry Ellison investoreid üllatada sõnavõtuga, mis ajab PSFT-i aktsiad hommikuks üles. Ta kas kinnitab pakkumist või..

    Vaadates PSFT-i graafikut tundub mulle, et põrge võiks veidi aega jätkuda.


    FWIW,

    sB
  • Juhin kõigi tähelepanu Rene Ilvese loo tagasisidele (vt. avalehel) :)

    sB
  • Spain: Police Find Van With Detonators, Arabic Tape -- Dow Jones
  • Täna on üle mõne aja raha voolamas pigem vanast majandusest tehnoloogiasse. Ei usu, et see nüüd just trendi pöördumine oleks, pigem põrge palju kukkunud tehnoloogiasektoris.
  • Lisaks tänane kommentaar from out of space:

    When NASA first started sending up astronauts, they quickly discovered that ball-point pens would not work in zero gravity. To combat this problem, NASA scientists spent a decade and $12 billion developing a pen that writes in zero gravity, upside down, on almost any surface and at temperatures from below freezing to over 300 C. The Russians opted for another alternative--the pencil.
  • Kas turg peab vastu sellele uudisele? Kui peab, siis on päris hea märk.

    sB
  • Dollar igatahes paraja löögi saanud uudisest ning ka USA turud kukkumas.

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