Börsipäev 16. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eile peale börsipäeva lõppu kergitas 3M Company (MMM) oma käimasoleva kvartali prognoose, oodatav EPS on nüüd $0.86-0.88 ja tulude kasv üle 10%, aktsia eelturul 3,25%% plussis.
Täna hommikul avaldas väga tugevad tulemused Lehman Brothers (LEH). Kasum aktsia kohta oli $2.21, mis ületab märgatavalt oodatud $1.66 ja eelmise aasta sama perioodi $1.15. Tulude kasvuks võrreldes eelmise aastaga on 36.8%, aktsia on eelturul 2,07% plussis.
Raymond James kergitas LHV Pro valiku Service Corp (SRV) reitingu strong buy tasemele viidates tugevatele IV kvartali tulemustele, korralikule rahavoole, kapitali struktruuri paranemisele jms. Hinnasihiks sai $8.50, aktsia eelturul 2,83% plussis.
Gary B. Smith:
Cody Willard täna RevSharki asemel:
Most bulls wanted to see a gap down this morning and/or some real capitulation on top of the recent carnage. Some genuine panic would go a long way to getting this selloff over and done with. Of course, it's never that easy, is it?
I sometimes use my email flow as anecdotal insight into what's going on in traders' minds. I noted yesterday a marked shift in the tone of my emails: They had been questions about whether I was scaling into more of stock XYZ, but they're now simply reflecting depression about the selloff. Several emailers even noted that they felt like "trapped bulls."
In a contrarian sense, that tonal shift is a bullish development. But frankly, I wonder if this market can bottom until we get a shift from depression to anger. The hate mail will likely come along if and when we get that panic capitulation.
In the end, I don't think it'll be that scripted.
By the way, word that Mark Cuban has acquired some 6.3% of Mamma.com (MAMA:Nasdaq) is another example of how we should watch what they do and not what they say.
Is the bull phase over?
Certainly there's no arguing that the bulls are having a tough go of things right now. The Nasdaq has pulled back a full 10% from its January highs. All of the indices are down for the year. Just about the only thing that's up right now is fear.
What a difference a few months make. In mid-January, there was no stopping this market. Stocks seemed to climb every day as bad news was bought, good news was chased, and concerns were nil. Fast-forward to today, and the market treats stocks far differently. Good news is sold, no news is sold, and bad news is trashed.
At this juncture, it's important to have your time frame defined -- whether as a broad style or in individual trades. Nobody knows how long this downturn will last. The Rev Shark has repeatedly pointed out that short-term and retail traders don't need to try to pick the bottom. There will indeed be plenty of time to catch a big move up for those with that kind of trading style.
On the other hand, if you still believe that this economy is in an early stage of a sustainable rebound, and you have some stocks that you expect to rise by double or triple digits from here, there's nothing wrong with scaling in on weakness. For example, I've practically nary a data point to make me doubt the ongoing rebound in the teleconomy, and I'm putting a small amount of capital into my favorite core names when they really get trashed. Obviously, I'm willing to take a lot of pain in my favorite core positions.
Of course, these two approaches aren't mutually exclusive. Even as I trimmed and sold some of my trading names yesterday morning, I turned around and redeployed some of that capital into my favorite long-term core names.
Futuurid: S&P 500 +0,52%; Nasdaq +0,57%
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THC on kauplemiseks väga hea, päevasisesed liikumised päris suured :)
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Kristjani shorditud WFII tuli päris ilusti ja kiiresti alla
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asi paistab ikka päris nutune olevat
isegi mul hakkavad sarved peast maha kukkuma -
Defense Sector Downgrade: CSFB lowers its weighting on the defense sector to Market Weight from Overweight, as its analysis of the Federal budget outlook strongly suggests the US is rapidly heading toward levels of public debt that have historically been unsustainable and that it is hard for them to see how defense spending avoids pressure given that outlook. Firm downgrades the following stocks to Neutral from Outperform: Boeing (BA: target cut to $44 from $50), Lockheed Martin (LMT: to $48 from $64), and Raytheon (RTN: to $30 from $37). Firm also upgrades BE Aerospace (BEAV) and Ladish (LDSH) to Neutral from Sell.
Kui eeltoodud nägemus USA kaitsekulutuste osas tõeks osutub, siis kuidas lood USA missiooniga Iraagis?
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WFII puhul panin pool positsioonist 10.8 peal kinni, kenad 10%.
FED võib õhtul turgu mõlemas suunas tublisti visata, suunda siiski praegu pea võimatu ennustada. -
EXPD on praegu short sihikul, veidi kallim aktsia, kuid väga ilusasti $37 vastupanu all, vähemalt $34 juurde võiks üsna ruttu minna.
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As expected, Fed leaves rates unchanged
Vote on interest rates was unanimous; says can be patient in removing policy accommodation -
Unusual Volume: Mamma.com (MAMA 9.91 +2.03, +26%), 121x average volume....
Ons keegi lühike? :) -
Ei ole ...aga ...ei julge..
Lühike aga hoopis ASKJ-is. -
askj peaks graafiku järgi varsti uue tipu tegema
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Päris hea lugemine Mamma.com (MAMA) kohta:
The Internet bubble, or at least a reasonable facsimile thereof, is back by way of Canada.
The company in question is Quebec-based Mamma.com (MAMA:Nasdaq - commentary - research), and its stock has been on a 1990s-ish ride: In a three-day period earlier this month, it almost quadrupled, rising from $4 to nearly $16.
Why the flight of fancy? Some investors have apparently convinced themselves that Mamma.com can compete in the Internet search business. Or, as company CEO Guy Faure put it recently in an interview, "There's been a lot of changes in the public company, and I think the stock is moving because the market realizes that we're a pure play in the search industry."
Faure went on to point out that "comparable" companies in the search business, such as Ask Jeeves (ASKJ:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and FindWhat (FWHT:Nasdaq - commentary - research) -- are trading at five to 10 times revenue. Mamma.com was being priced at a discount, so investors apparently were coming to their senses.
Are they? For starters, it helps to understand Mamma.com's products and history.
Some Background
The company's current product is what is euphemistically called a meta-search engine. It grabs results from multiple search engines -- Google, Teoma and so on -- and then sorts and presents all of the results to you in combined form as your search results.
That is not a silly idea, but it was somewhat more useful back when it wasn't clear which of the many search engines out there were best. You could duck the question of "best" by asking all of the engines simultaneously, as is the case with Mamma.com.
It isn't difficult technology, however. You can cobble together something similar relatively quickly from freely available software on the Internet. One, two, three, Mamma-yourself.
That, in part, is what is a little vexing about Mamma.com. The company is trying to ride the coattails of the coming Google public offering, and there is nothing wrong with that. Along the way, it is doing its level best to sound like a "pure play" search company, one that happens to do many of the same things as Google, such as search and targeted advertising, albeit on a minuscule scale and for less money.
The Mamma.com folks have even aped the Google technical frisson. Where Google famously flowed from research done by two Stanford computer science Ph.D. students, the Mamma.com Web site says that "Mamma was developed as a master's thesis at Ottawa's Carleton University by Herman Tumurcuoglu."
Kudos for Carleton, right? Sure, but what goes unsaid is that Tumurcuoglu's master's thesis was not in a technical discipline, a la Google; it was apparently an M.A. thesis in marketing. In other words, Tumurcuoglu described the Mamma.com idea during the dot-com days of 1996 in a conceptual "Let's Get Rich" sense, and then reassigned the job of actually creating the thing to a programmer.
There were many twists and turns postfounding, and Mamma.com ended up being folded into Intasys, a tiny Internet incubator-cum-telecom-company. The latter shed most of its non-Mamma holdings over the past few years and changed its stock ticker to MAMA earlier this year. It is now apparently betting that it can ride Mamma.com hard to the financial finish line.
Huge Activity
Well, someone is riding Mamma.com hard. When the stock nearly quadrupled recently, its trading volume did much, much better. Shares traded leaped up 730-fold, from an average of 90,000 shares a day before March 1 to nearly 66 million shares on March 2 (and a similar number the following day). That prodigious trading volume is more than the average daily shares traded of General Electric (GE:NYSE - commentary - research), Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE - commentary - research) and Citigroup (C:NYSE - commentary - research) combined.
In a company-specific context, Mamma.com has 6.36 million shares outstanding, so the volume meant that, in the most conservative case, every Mamma.com share changed hands 10 times per day. Realistically, that means that some Mamma.com shareholders were whirling their stock around every few minutes in dervish-style. What sort of people trade that way? Daytraders, of course: Mamma.com had become their latest plaything.
So, what does the future hold for Mamma.com? Well, the recent past is almost certainly a good indication. After that wild ride skyward earlier this month, the company's stock fell by half on declining volume. It looked like the adventure was over.
Then, however, came news today that impresario Mark Cuban, of Dallas Mavericks fame, had built up a 6% position in Mamma.com. Was his accumulation of that sizable position the catalyst for the stock's recent run? Say what you will about Cuban, but he is entertaining, and he does have a head for making money. His position is not to be dismissed lightly.
It's possible that Mamma.com -- which calls itself the mother of all search engines -- will win the mother of all battles in the search business. As I wrote last week, it isn't as if Google has the business sewn up; there is room for competition. More realistically, Mamma.com could just scrape along at the margin, making subsistence income on search scraps from cost-focused customers.
But this isn't a business premised purely on marketing, where Cuban is at his best. He succeeded at Broadcast.com not because of technology, but because of his ability to beat his way relentlessly into a market through heroic business development. Search-driven targeted advertising -- where Mamma.com seems to be aimed -- is still a technology game, as Google's adventures with AdWords has shown. Throwing more marketing into the mix will not win the day.
In the absence of Cuban's position in Mamma.com, the company's stock would've likely deflated back into deserved obscurity. His position has given the company -- or at least its stock -- a new lease on life, at least as a business-development ploy.
But we are early in the capital-expensive targeted ad-search game, so color me skeptical that Mamma.com is really destined to be the mother of all search engines. The stock may have a wild ride ahead, but its only hope is, like Broadcast.com, to build up enough small-fry customers so that it can sell out before anyone notices that nothing was really under the hood. That, of course, is unlikely and a very dangerous game -- certainly not the way that most prudent investors will want to use their money. -
THC sulgeme positsiooni 1$ per aktsia :))
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MAMA-s jah t2na shortisin 10.11 peal 9.79 peal v2lja.Midagi eriti ei voitnud,arvsin,et p2eva lopuks langeb ta kuskile 9-9.50 kanti.Homseks ei julgenud teda j2tta.
