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Börsipäev 1.-2. aprill tugev tööjõuraport

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  • -USA turud on endiselt tööjõuraporti ootuses ning suuri liikumisi oodata ei ole. Turu avanemise eel avaldatud eelmise nädala tööpuuduse statistika oli positiivne, töötu abiraha taotlejate arv oli 340 000 ning see on madalaim näitaja alates 2001. aasta jaanuarist.

    -Telekomisektorit kergitas Ericssoni (ERICY) tugev kvartaliprognoos. Firma teatas, et kasumimarginaal on tõusuteel,  müügi kasv on siiski varasemate prognoosidega samas suurusjärgus. Aktsia on eelturul 8.5% plussis.

    -Chevron Texaco (CVX) teatas 5 miljardi dollari suurusest plaanist aktsiate tagasiostmiseks. Aktsia eelturul kerges plussis.

    -Merill Lynch teatas, et alandab jaemüügifirmade sealhulgas ka Wal-Mart (WMT) reitinguid. Muretsemiseks annab põhjust oodatav intressimäärade tõstmine, mis peaks lõpu tegema tarbimispeole.

    -Euroopa Keskpank jättis intressid muutmata, eurole tähendas see tugevnemist. Tulevikus ei välistatud intresside alandamist, kuid selle tõenäosus on vähenenud. Jaapani majandus on näitamas tugevnemise märke, seda peale kümnendi kestnud kiratsemist, jeeni kursile mõjub see ainult hästi.

    Rev Shark:

    In recent weeks, I've been detecting a steady increase in bearish sentiment. This is reflected to some degree in the sentiment surveys, but much of what I have read and the emails I receive lead me to believe that the level of worry and concern out there has been growing. 

    After a yearlong rally, many folks are ready to concede that either we will correct to a much greater extent or the bear market will resume. Investors have a slew of things to worry about -- rising oil and gas prices, the quagmire in Iraq, a nasty presidential election, the potential of higher interest rates and a slowing economic recovery. If you want something to worry about, there are plenty of things to choose from. 

    But it is the flow of actual events in the weeks to come that will determine the path this market will take. To some extent, the increase in bearishness is a positive, but it probably is not great enough to be a good contrary indicator. We do have conditions in place to climb the proverbial "wall of worry," but the mood isn't so dark that we can consider the market to be washed out. 

    Technically, this market can easily break either way. We are still extended after the recent rally and more profit-taking would not be a surprise, but that would do little to change the technical picture. The Nasdaq has technical support at 1900, which is the 200-day simple moving average, and technical overhead at 2000 and also at 2025, which is the 50-day simple moving average. 

    Economic data and earnings reports are the events that will determine our course over the immediate future. Everyone is probably tired of hearing about the jobs report, which still isn't due for another 24 hours. Market participants are keenly focused on this report and we should see some positioning today in front of the news. 

    The interesting thing about the jobs report is that it isn't all that clear what the market will consider to be a "good" report. If employment growth is extremely strong that will cause concern about the possibility of increased interest rates, which is a negative for stocks. On the other hand, if the numbers are weak, that calls into question the pace of the economic recovery and causes political problems for President Bush. The best thing for the market may be a Goldilocks report -- one that isn't too hot or too cold. 

    The market action today is going to be dominated by speculation of what that report holds. Anyone who thinks they know what will happen tomorrow is simply gambling at this point. It is a roll of the dice. Forget conventional wisdom and focus on being prepared for events as they unfold. I don't know what will happen, but I guarantee you that many will be surprised. 

    One thing that has kept me leaning bullish recently is the better action I'm finding in small-caps and momentum stocks. The positive breadth yesterday is probably the easiest way to see what I am seeing. My feeling is that market participants are hunting for the underfollowed stocks that are likely to post decent first-quarter earnings. They are focusing on fundamentals and finding some opportunities in the little guys. That is a positive, and I will stay bullish as long as I see that sort of activity. 

    Early opening indications reflect a high level of uncertainty. European markets are slightly positive on strength in technology stocks, while Asian markets were marginally lower. 

    Merrill Lynch is downgrading the big retailers -- DDS, DLTR, FDO, WMT, TGT and NMGA. The analyst there is concerned about the potential of higher interest rates in the second half of the year, as well as removal of Chinese apparel quotas, seasonality and tough comps. 

    We have the weekly unemployment claims coming at 8:30 a.m. EST as well as the long-delayed PPI report. At 10:00 a.m., the construction spending and ISM Purchasing Managers reports should shake things up a tad. 

    Overall, it looks like we are in wait-and-see mode in front of the jobs report tomorrow. Emotions will be running high and that should keep things uncertain. Be careful out there.

    Gary B. Smith:

     

     

  • Börs kihutab ülespoole, mis minu meelest natuke negatiivne enne reedest uudist, kuna ootuseid köetakse ülespoole.

    Börs tõuseb ja volatiilsus tõuseb - seda kombinatsiooni näeb üsna harva. Täna on põhjus selles, et ebakindlus enne homset uudist on kõrgem.
  • MSFT murdis olulise 25$ taseme. Kas see oli ikka oluline tase, millest siin mõned päevad tagasi räägiti ?
  • Eks ta kipu ikka olema, aga tasub jälgida sulgemistaset, päevasisesed kõikumised ei oma nii suurt tähtsust.
  • Nanotehnoloogia rokib täna. Merrill Lynch teatas, et toob turule nanotehnoloogiafondi ja see tähendab täiendavat ostuhuvi kõikidele indeksisse kuuluvatele aktsiatele.
  • Bettie: nanomania to-day
    Bettie: bubble me once shame on you
    Bettie: bubble me twice..
    Bettie: shame on me!
    USTradr: yeap, was just thinking that anyone who invests in that index will probably lose 95%
    Bettie: like genomics in 2000. think they set up an index for that too.

    enough said,

    sB
  • Lõhnab nii ... mis te arvate mitu indeksisse lisatavatest 25-st aktsiast täna miinuses on?
  • Mulle tundub nii, et tähtsustate seda USA tööjõuraportit üle, aga elame näeme :)
  • On kuskil ka lähemalt loodavast fondist ja sinna lisatavatest aktsiatest kirjutatud? Ei viitsi Google-t piinama hakata.
  • 12:24 Merrill Lynch introduces Nanotech Index

    Dow Jones reports that Merrill Lynch is introducing the Merrill Lynch Nanotechnology Index, which will include equal weighted holdings of 25 companies that have a significant amount of their future profits tied to this miniature technology. "We believe nanotechnology could be the next growth innovation, similar in importance to information technology over the past 50 years," Merrill technology analyst Steven Milunovich said in a Thursday research note."Nanotech is real - the questions generally are when, not if." Stocks included in the Index are: Amcol (ACO), Applied Films (AFCO), Altair Nanotech (ALTI), Biosante Pharma (BPA), Caliper Life Sciences (CALP), Cabot Microelectronics (CCMP), Emcore (EMKR), FEI (FEIC), Flamel Tech (FLML), Headwaters (HDWR), JMAR Tech (JMAR), MTS Systems (MTSC), Nanometrics (NANO), Nanophase Tech (NANX), Nanogen (NGEN), NVE Corp. (NVEC), Universal Display (PANL), Pharmacopeia (ACCL), SkyePharma (SKYE), Symyx Tech (SMMX), Three-Five Systems (TFS), Harris & Harris (TINY), Ultratech (UTEK), Veeco Instruments (VECO) and Westaim (WEDX).

    Briefing.com


    sB
  • Mis indeksi sümbol on ja millal saab kaubeldavaks?
    Kindel see, et raha hakkab sinna palju voolama ja miks peaks rongist maha jääma. Eks ta mulliks kisub, kuid võitjad on need, kes kohe alustavad.
  • Velvo, sümbol on NNZ ja sellega veel kaubelda ei saa.
  • Töökohti loodi tõesti väga võimas number ja futuurid seda ka peegeldavad (Nasdaq +1.5%, oli ka vahepeal +2%). Tegelik reaktsioon uudisele võib ilmneda alles esmaspäevaks.

    Eelmine kuu oli esimene reaktsioon positiivne, kuid esmaspäeval müüdi turg juba võimsalt alla. Kuid siis oli erinevus selles, et number oli väga negatiivne. Seega vaadake turu liikumist, sektoritest eelkõige pooljuhid ja finants.
  • Bush valitakse tagasi selle data peale? :)
    Huvitav kas pharma (vabariiklased pharma sõbrad vs demarit) reageerib ka?

    sB
  • -USA eelturg on tugevas plussis ning seda tänu pikalt oodatud märtsi väga tugevatele tööjõunumbritele.  Uusi töökohti loodi märtsis 308 000, varem spekuleeriti vaid  150 000 suuruse numbriga. See on suurim peale 2000 aasta aprilli. Tööpuudus kerkis siiski kümnendiku protsendi võrra 5.7 protsendile.

    -Serveritootja Sun Microsystems (SUNW) andis kasumihoiatuse, kuid teatas ka suurtest ümberkorraldustest. Aktsia kukkus uudise peale 6%, kuid uue uudise toel saadi taas jalad alla, nimelt Sun ja Microsoft (MSFT) teatasid koostööpakti sõlmimisest. Microsoft maksab firmale 1.6 miljardit dollarit, lisaks hakkavad firmad üksteise tooteid toetama.

    -Pooljuhtide sektorit mõjutab veebruari müüginumbrite avaldamine, maailmas müüdi siis 15.58 miljardi eest antud sektori tooteid, mis on aasta tagusega 31% rohkem.  Seega on tugev nõudlus endiselt kestev.

    -Tööjõuraporti esmane mõju oli tunda eelkõige valuutaturul, dollar tugevnes euro vastu 1.5%.

    Rev Shark:

    The highly anticipated jobs report is due this morning at 8:30 a.m. EST. The consensus is for payrolls to increase 120,000, the unemployment rate to come in at 5.6% and the average workweek to be 33.9 hours. The market has been focusing on this report for days now and it is sure to produce a major reaction of some sort. Who is going to win this battle? The side that perseveres -- and that won't be clear until later in the day. 

    The real difficulty is that it isn't clear what constitutes "good news." A weak report means there are some problems on the economic front but doesn't necessarily indicate we have growth issues. A weak report also will help keep interest rates down, which is a positive. A strong report indicates the economy is healthy but will cause worries about forthcoming interest rate hikes. 

    Many folks believe we have a lose-lose situation setting up and that the market is going to take a hit no matter what happens. I don't believe that is necessarily the case. A Goldilocks report -- not too hot, not too cold -- will probably be a positive. 

    The other thing to consider here is to what degree market participants are inclined to sell the news no matter what it might be in order to lock in recent gains. We have had a big move over the past week and there is plenty of profit to protect. Traders are likely to be quick to find a reason to sell even if the news is generally "good." That factor should keep us wary of the first move to develop. The fact that it's Friday may help increase the profit-taking inclination to some degree. 

    I typically don't try to game these types of major events, because so many people are trying to figure out what will happen that I don't feel I have any great edge. My general feeling is that expectations are high and we have made a big move, so a sell-the-news reaction is the most likely event. We will see soon enough. 

    The most important thing at this point isn't to predict, but to react as things unfold. We can do little to change our positioning at this point but we can control our emotions as events unfold. Think about how the various scenarios may unfold and what you will do in each case, then be prepared to be surprised. It is the process of planning rather than the actual plans that are most important. Accurate prediction is nice but the key is to be mentally prepared to act. 

    Early action is mixed as we wait for the report. Overseas markets are generally higher, with technology stocks doing well. The dollar is showing some strength and gold is down a bit in the early going. Oil is unchanged.

    Gary B. Smith


  • Palgatakse rohkelt uusi inimesi ->
    Eksisteerib oht inflatsiooni suurenemiseks ->
    Suureneb tõenäosus FED-i poolseks intressitõstmiseks ->
    Mortgage ja eriti Mortgage ReFi turud on esimesed ja kõige kõvema laksu saavad sektorid üleüldse

    Või panin pekki, sB?
  • Tegelikult äranämmutatud teema: majandus parem-oht intressitõusuks-finants kaotaja. Tegelikult ei ole see päris üksühene, sest kui majanduse tervis paraneb, siis laenatakse rohkem.
    EELN on ses suhtes rohkem tundlik, et just refinantseerimisel on suhteliselt kõrgem osatähtsus. Ehk teisitiöelduna: vahetatakse laene odavama intressi vastu. Kui intressid tõusevad, siis refinantseerijate osakaal kahaneb kiiresti ja tulud jäävad saamata.

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