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Börsipäev 20. aprill - hoolega tulemusi

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  • Täna tuleb hoolega majandustulemusi enne börsipäeva (esmaspäevaselt järelturult olid tulemused pigem head). Alustas täna haip-aktsiad Taser (TASR), prognoose ületati, kuid 14.00-st alates on näha kuidas turg nendele reageerib.

    Just tuli tulemustega ka Pfizer, kasum oodatust parem, käive kergelt lahjem.

    06:44 PFE Pfizer beats by $0.01, ex items, light on revs, issues Y04 guidance (37.58 )

    Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.52 per share, excluding non-cash charges, $0.01 better than the Reuters Research consensus of $0.51; revenues rose 46.8% year/year to $12.49 bln vs the $12.53 bln consensus.
  • Eelturult veel ilusaid tulemusi GM +2%, FON +3.5%, PCS +3%, SNE +2.5%, ELNK +6.7%

    TASR kaupleb väga volatiilselt juba eelturul, praegu -8%.
  • -Alan Greenspan on täna taas fookuses ning oodatakse sõnumit intressimäärade kohta. Täna esineb ta Senati panganduskomisjoni ees.

    -Tänaseid reaktsioone tulemustele: Pfizer (PFE) esimese kvartali kasum oli 52 senti aktsia kohta, ehk sendi võrra oodatust rohkem. Aktsia eelturul siiski protsendi miinuses. Lucenti (LU) esimese kvartali kasum küündis 68 miljoni dollarini, aktsia kohta 2 senti. aasta tagasi oli kahjum veel 553 miljonit dollarit. Käive vähenes aastaga siiski 9% 2.19 miljardile dollarile.

    -General Motors (GM) tõstis oma aastakasumi prognoosi 7 dollarile (varasem 6 kuni 6,5 dollarit). Euroopa autotootjate aktsiad reageerisid uudisele positiivselt. Sony (SNE) kergitas järgmise majandusaasta (Märtsis lõppev) kasumiprognoosi 60%, tulude mahuks peaks kujunema 7.5 triljonit jeeni.

    -UBS tõstis tarkvaratootja EMC reitingut "osat " peale. Citigroup tõstis Amazoni (AMZN) reitingut "müü" pealt "hoia" peale.

    Rev Shark:

    The highlight of the day will be the Oracle of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, who is testifying before the Senate Banking Committee. The phrase that will move the market is "interest rates." Will Mr. Greenspan sooth the market with comments about how the FOMC can be patient before having to raise rates, or will he hint at how the inevitability of some sort of action is accelerating? 

    That is what this market is all about today. A hike in interest rates is going to happen at some point, but this market has been struggling mightily with the issue of timing. The uncertainty of when it will occur has been roiling the market over the past week or so. Chairman Greenspan can help alleviate some of that uncertainty today, but obfuscation is one of Mr. Greenspan's major skills. 

    To make things even more interesting, we are at the peak of earnings season. There were a number of positive reports out already, but as we have seen so far, the market has been much more concerned with interest rates than earnings. If Mr. Greenspan can calm interest rate worries, earnings may start to matter more. 

    The bulls saw some promising signs of life yesterday, but volume was too light to allow any great optimism. We saw good action in technology and biotechnology, and there continues to be some very strong pockets of momentum, particularly in homeland security-related stocks. But after the lousy action ever since the strong retail numbers, this is a market that needs to prove itself. 

    Technically, all the major indices have recaptured the 50-day simple moving average, which is a positive. But there is still plenty of overhead to contend with. The short-term trend is still quite murky. 

    There continues to be some very vigorous action in a variety of small-caps. There have been quite a few small stocks that are doubling or tripling in a single day. Taser (TASR:Nasdaq) is a more mature version of some of these stocks, and is going to be particularly wild today following its earnings report of 24 cents vs. estimates of 22 cents. On my premarket screen, there is heavy action already in stocks such as STKR, CHKP, SIRI, VISG, MACE, TBUS, ASKJ, MAGS, etc. Big-cap technology stocks -- CSCO, MSFT, INTC and AMZN -- are also seeing some buying as well. 

    Overseas action was strong, with technology stocks leading the way. The dollar is mixed and gold is selling off again. Futures are perky in the early going, lead by technology stocks. 

    Chairman Greenspan isn't scheduled to speak until 2:30 p.m. EDT, so the market is likely to be uncertain until that occurs. We should see a move when his prepared remarks are released shortly before his appearance. 

    It looks like a good day for active trading, but the longer-term picture is murky and it probably is not a good time to aggressively build longer-term positions.

    Gary B. Smith:

     

  • TASR on üsna hea indikatsioon turuosaliste spekulatiivsuse suhtes, hoidke radaril.
  • Kes tahab väga suurt riski, vaadaku SVC graafikut, aktsia on väga kiiresti tõusnud ja nii $17 kui ka $18 on tugevad vastupanud, suurem on tõenäosus, et aktsia pöörab siit alla ja on peatselt taas $14 juures. Ma ise väikse koguse shortisin, stop $18.3 peale.

    NB! Aktsia on väikse käibega ja väga ebalikviidne, seega tasub tõesti võtta vaid väike kogus.

  • SVC on huvitav küll, aga miks LHV kauplemiskonto ei luba selle shortimist?
  • Viga parandatud, kauplemiskontol võimalik SVC aktsias lühikeseks minna.
  • Kas kauplemiskonto = investeerimiskonto?
  • Veidi segaseks jäi jah, aga kauplemiskonto all mõtlesin investeerimiskontot. Kuid testisin seda ka trader kontol ning ei ole ka seal probleemiks seda aktsiat lühikeseks müüa.
  • Turul on viimastel tundidel võimas müügisurve, põhjuseks Greenspani kommentaar "pangad on täiesti valmis tegutsema kõrgemate intresside tingimustes". Turg ootas pigem kommentaari, et intresse nii pea ei tõsteta.

    Väga negatiivne päev kujunes lõpuks välja, eriti arvestades häid uudiseid päeva alguses.
  • Kristjan, saan ma õigesti aru, et pre ja afterhours on lhv kliendile kauged asjad?
  • Inve stoor, täiesti valesti - LHV Traderi vahendusel käib vilgas kauplemine nii eel- kui järelturul, seni kuni vähegi noteeringud väljas, saab tehinguid teha.
  • to: inve stoor

    Jep, ma olen ka näiteks kell 2:50 öösel tehinguid teinud. Kella 3-st öösel läheb lukku.

    Mugav, kui on nägemus. Ainult et ääred liiguvad ruttu, kuna orderite pakk on tavaliselt õhuke.

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