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Börsipäev 28. aprill - Nortel järgmine Enron?

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  • Tere hommikust!

    Tänane tulemustesadu Helsingis on alanud ...

    Elcoteq (ELQAV)

    Käive I kvartalis 618.5M EUR so. 20% tõusu eelmise aastaga võrreldes, EPS 0.18 EUR, eelmisel aastal samal ajal 0.06 EUR. Tulemused vastavad käibe ja EPS osas analüütikute ootustele, mida korrigeeriti juba 6. aprillil antud positiivses kasumihoiatuse valguses.

    Kui aga 6.aprillil pakuti tegevuskasumiks 10.1M, siis see tuli koguni 11.3M EUR, ületades oluliselt ootusi. 

    II kvartali numbrid arvatakse püsivat samal tasemel, kuid usutakse turu pöördumist üles ja sellest tulenevat kasvu II poolaastal ...

    Aktsia avanemas Helsingis 0,77% plussis

    TeliaSonera (TLS1V)

    Käive 19.946M SEK eelmise aasta sama perioodi 20.349M SEK vastu: languses -1,9% suures osas süüdi valuutakursside ebasoodne mõju (NOK vs. SEK ettevõtte Norra allüksuse käibe konsolideerimisel)

    EPS kasvas 0.50 SEK tasemele varasema 0.35 SEK asemel: +42%, tegevuskasum kasvas eelmise aasta sama perioodiga võrreldes 25%, ilusatest kasvunumbritest hoolimata kiputakse analüütikute ootustele alla jääma.

    Aktsia avanemas Helsingis -0,53% miinuses.

  • Nordea (NDA1V) tuli välja üle ootuste heade tulemustega, aktsia käis korraks ka +2%, kuid kasumivõtmine viis hinna jälle pisut allapoole.

    Strong results in Q1
    - Operating profit up 52% to EUR 584m (EUR 383m in Q4 2003) - oodati 467M EUR
    - Net profit more than doubled to EUR 418m (EUR 202m)
    - Total income up 2% to EUR 1,421m (EUR 1,399m)
    - Total expenses down 10% to EUR 873m (EUR 973m)
    - Earnings per share EUR 0.15 (EUR 0.07) - oodati 0.11 EUR

    Nordea tulemuste järel on mõnevõrra ülespoole nihkunud ka Sampo (SAMAS) aktsia, ettevõte avaldab oma tulemused 6. mail.

    TeliaSonera (TLS1V) on ootustele allajäämise järel ca -4% all, Elcoteq (ELQAV) korralike tulemuste järel kasumivõtmise surve all ca -1%, kuna ettevõtte ei oota II kvartalis praegustele numbritele lisa, kasvu loodetakse alles II poolaastal.

  • Outokumpu (OUT1V) ületas kõvasti ootusi, käive 1690M EUR (oodati 1447M), EPS 0.55 EUR (oodati 0.15 EUR), aktsia ca +5%.

    Metso (MEO1V) käive 928M EUR (ootus 921M EUR), maksude-eelne kahjum oli -12,1M (oodati -12,8M), EPS -0,18 EUR (oodati -0.10 EUR), aktsia languses -1,2%

    Stora Enso (STERV) käive 3 017,9M EUR (ootused 2959M EUR), kuid EPS 0.06 EUR (ootused 0.15 EUR)usutakse paberihindade tõusu ja kasvu II poolaastal, aktsia -0,6%, sest reaktsioon oli suures osas juba eilsete UPM-Kymmene tulemuste põhjal ära olnud.

  • well... Outokumpu CEO ütles juba aktsionäride koosolekul, et "kõik on tuksis, enam ei jõua toota, hinnatõstmine kah ei peletanud kundesid minema" :)
  • Kui Outokumpu eriti silmapaistvad tulemused välja arvata, siis korralikud tulemused ei ole täna Helsingi Börsil abiks kui Nokia on tegemas viimase 6 päeva madalamaid tasemeid ...
  • Nortel teatas täna CEO, CFO ja kontrolleri vallandamisest, finantsandmetega on seal firmas päris korralik jama. Ilmselt vähendatakse 2003.a. (jah, eelmise aasta) kasumit 50% võrra. Aktsia on eelturul 20% miinuses.
  • Oh pask. Tra, ma ütlen, igasugune rep on ikka täielik jama. Cramer on sama tark kui Average Joe. Hasbeen. Või isegi haibitud Neverwas. EMC, NT, TASR jne. Mul küll vaid 1000 NT-d sees ja loss summarselt tilluke, aga asi on sisulisem. Krt ennem läheb issanda päike igaveseks looja kui ma AA+ trialist sabskraiberiks hakkaks. Huvitav on testida, aga no see mees paneb ikka täitsa pange.

    Huli dahuja nahujaril, razhujarivõi nahuj...
  • -USA turud on  avanemas miinuses. Dow aktsiatest on löögi all Disney  (DIS), Nasdaqi aktsiatest Nortel (NT).

    -Comcast (CMCSK) teatas et loobub oma 60 miljardi dollari suurusest pakkumisest Disney (DIS) ostuks. Disney aktsia on eelturul 2,3% miinuses, Comcast on tõusnud üle 6%.

    -McDonalds (MCD) teatas positiivsetest majandustulemustest, esimeses kvartalis kerkis müük 16% 4,39 miljardile dollarile. Aktsia eelturul 2,3% plussis.

    -Nokiale allhanget tegev RF Microdevices (RFMD) avaldas eile järelturul kehvad kvartalitulemused ning aktsia on 9% miinuses tõmmates endaga kaasa teised allhankijad ja Nokia aktsia.

    -Nortel (NT) aktsia on eelturul 1,5 dollarit miinuses ehk 22%. Firma neli kõrget juhti (eesotsas tegevjuhi ja finantsjuhiga). Lisaks vaadatakse üle eelmise aasta kasum.

    Rev Shark:

    The great difficulty of this market now is the lack of clear direction. We have had some positives, such as good earnings and economic data, and some negatives, such as interest rate worries and the situation in Iraq, but none has been great enough to send the market in one direction. 

    Market direction is seldom certain but there are usually some good indications that allow us to make an educated guess of where things might be headed. That has not been the case lately. 

    Both the bullish and bearish cases appear equally reasonable at this juncture. Of course, the bulls and the bears would disagree with that but an objective observer can easily understand the logic of both positions. 

    The bulls' case is grounded in the fact that the economy continues to improve. The bulls point to the better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, the improving jobs data and robust economic growth. Consumer confidence, home sales, ISM reports and so on all support the proposition that the economy is booming. 

    The bulls argue that interest rate fears are overblown. It is an inevitable consequence of a better economy and should not come as a surprise. The bulls feel that improved earnings should more than offset the cost of higher rates. 

    The bear's case is focused primarily on valuation. They argue that the market has been rallying for over a year and has already priced in the economic recovery. They argue that an interest rate hike is now coming sooner than expected and has not been fully discounted by the market. They see oil prices, a stronger dollar, higher interest rates and international unrest as concerns that will weigh on stocks in the month ahead. 

    Who's right? I don't know. I look to the technical pattern to provide some clues and that is equally murky. Overall the technical patterns are developing in a positive way with inverse cup and handles and descending triangle formations but they are not fully formed and could easily fall apart. 

    I have no great aversion to anticipating how a pattern will play out but in the current environment I don't have enough clues to make me comfortable with an anticipatory approach. I want to see the indices clearly break support or resistance before taking a more aggressive trading posture. 

    In the early going we have a slow start to the day. Two poor earnings reports in Europe from Unilever (UL:NYSE) and Siemens (SI:NYSE) are pressuring the bourses. Comcast (CMCSA:Nasdaq) has dropped its Disney (DIS:NYSE), which is hurting the DJIA. There were some solid earnings reports last night but nothing that is a market mover. We don't have economic reports today. The market is uncertain and looking for a theme on which to focus.

    Gary B. Smith:

     

  • Ma ausalt nii koledat pressiteadet nagu tänane Nortel ei mäletagi, päris shokeeriv. Lisaks teatati, et antud kvartali majandustulemuste avaldamine lükatakse tulevikku. Tulemused pidid tulema homme.
  • :)


    Wednesday, April 28, 2004 8:59 a.m. EDT


    Dear Action Alerts PLUS Subscriber,

    Sometimes being a money manager means being a crisis
    manager. It means recognizing that you bought something
    hoping that the worst case wouldn't happen, and it did.


    It is in moments like these that a manager has to buck up
    and be tough but realize that the worst case has occurred.


    Fraud, huge fraud, terrible fraud, occurred at Nortel
    (NT:NYSE). It was done to make the company look like it was
    part of a gigantic comeback when it wasn't. That means that
    the Nortel that I bought willingly and aggressively,
    believing that even if the worst case did occur, it would
    still be worth something, was a mistake.


    To not call it a mistake is to act as if I saw this coming.
    I also will admit, candidly, to you readers, that I now
    have no way of knowing how to value Nortel because Nortel,
    like Cendant (CD:NYSE) when I owned that in 1998, is not
    the Nortel I thought it was.


    I am faced with a couple of options. I can blow it out
    based on the fact that the CEO was apparently crooked.
    That's what people are doing in spades today. I can try to
    learn more and make a more informed decision over the next
    couple of days, although I am sure my rules about buying
    and selling and talking about stock will make me unable to
    take much defensive action. Or I can take advantage of the
    panic, reflect on the cash position and bet that the
    company, which was at $8, deserves to be cut in half,
    because half the profits turned out to be bogus, and add to
    the position.


    Let's discuss all three. The "blow out the position and
    take the loss" option is the one that the majority is
    taking. In doing so, these investors are presuming that
    Nortel may not be a going concern. I find that hard to
    believe, given the $3.6 billion cash position. These
    investors also are unwilling to deal with the myriad
    lawsuits that are going to be fired off after this. I am no
    stranger to pain, and I can tell from the cash position --
    the one solid piece of information that is known -- that
    the company is still a going concern. So I don't want to
    blow out the position and take the loss.


    The "buy more" option is compromised by the fact that I
    don't know what I am buying anymore. I don't know the new
    management team and I don't know how the business is really
    doing -- which, by the way, I thought I did because I
    trusted the company. That trust was misplaced. Given that I
    own 47,500 shares already, that course would seem a tad
    illogical, if not reckless.


    So, that leaves "do nothing."


    This could be the "do nothing" that I should have done
    when, out of emotion, I kicked out Raytheon (RTN:NYSE),
    Omnicom (OMC:NYSE) and Newell Rubbermaid (NWL:NYSE) at the
    bottom. In the case of Cendant in 1998, a do-nothing
    produced nothing good, but no additional harm was done.
    Sometimes, that's all you can do in a crisis.


    This Nortel setback is a huge one. As befits any time you
    own a lot of stock in a fraud, it will wipe out whatever
    good has been done by other stocks and I suspect that will
    happen this morning to my portfolio.


    Recriminations will come later. Somehow, I genuinely
    believed that that the WorldCom-Enron-HealthSouth-Tyco-
    Adelphia era was behind us. Nortel shows it wasn't.


    Perhaps I took the "accounting irrregularities = sell" sign
    off the side of my monitor too soon.


    As is always the case, because I have my own money where my
    mouth is, I feel the twin shame of loss and disappointing
    you, my readers.


    As always, in a crisis, I fall back on my crisis rules: Try
    to curtail the emotion, tough it out, be clear-headed.


    And I remember that, this too, shall pass.


    For those who are tempted to trade it, I suspect that
    Nortel will trade down to $3 at some point today. It seems,
    given the gravity of the disaster, that anything even
    remotely connected to where it traded down to before this --
    the mid-$4s -- is way too high.

    Regards,


    James J. Cramer


    DISCLOSURE: At the time of publication, Cramer was long
    Nortel and Cendant.

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  • Ah pepu, kui viitsite mehed, võtke mu meiliaadress lõpust ära, kui ei ole aega, siis w/e. Sorry. :)
  • hansapank pushis päris aktiivselt mõni aeg tagasi nortelit
  • Ilmselt ei oodanud ka kõige suuremad pessimistid Nortelilt nii halbu uudiseid. Kuidas siis selle peale mängida? Tegemist siin ikkagi finantspettusega ja seega selle peale panustada kummaski suunas on päris raske. Võimalused languseks siiski suuremad.
  • ... mis nüüdseks juba lühiajaliselt murtud. Aga oluline tase jah.
  • On kellegil aimu kas CBJ-l on ka mingi põhjus nt. mingi uudis, tänase avanemise taga või...
  • CBJ - kullaaktsia, kuld ja hõbe saavad täna kõvasti lüüa pärast teadet, et Hiina hakkab pärssima oma majanduskasvu.
  • Nortelil tundub support olevat ka $3 ja $0.03 juures, ühte neist peaks kaaluma ka ostukohana :/

    Oma 1k lükkasin $4.06 juures maha.
  • Tänud Kristjan aga ei tea kas tasub loota et see lüüa saamine on ajutine või peaks ruttu müüma.

  • $4 jah läks kolinaga, nüüd juba minnakse teiselt poolt proovima .. huvitav, kas vastupanuna on see tase tugevam.
  • CBJ-le võib $2.45 veel toetust pakkuda, kuid kuld tervikuna on murdnud olulise toetuse $390 juures ja pilt on seal üsna halb. Mina müüksin.
  • uudised AAC:
    Ableauctions to Announce 1st Quarter 2004 Results May 14, 2004
    Soovitan soojalt praegu osta, kui aktsia suht odav.
  • Päris nõrk päev. Kuid vaadake Norteli käivet - 267 mln. aktsiat praeguseks hetkeks. See on pea 20% tänasest NYSE käibest.
  • Cramer sez:

    Nineteen buys of Nortel (NT) are the enemy now. Nineteen out of 34 analysts currently recommend the stock.

    Many of these recommenders had one-on-ones with Frank Dunn, the man who was fired today. That means their projections are wrong. That means they got it wrong.

    So, we have an interesting and not-great dynamic right now. Sixteen of those who would potentially upgrade Nortel have to be on hold until they see the real earnings, because they can't go into their bosses and say, "Let's upgrade." They know there's nothing to base the upgrade on. Can't do that.

    The 19 recommenders are in a much tougher position. They can't defend the stock, they don't know the numbers. Better to admit that they have been "had" and move on.

    Which is why the stock is stuck right here and will see $4 plain again today or tomorrow.

    Rough situation!

    PS: Üks firma siiski on reitingu tõstmisega ka hakkama saanud: CIBC. Millal see juhtus? Näete seda pisikest tõusukühmukest Norteli graafikul just enne keskpäeva?



    sB
  • Nortel langeb ikka sügavamale auku (vaatamata väikestele põrgetele)?! Mis lahti nii suure firmaga?
  • s.t. kas ikka veel ei suuda oma raamatupidamisprobleeme selja taha jätta ja aruandlusega järjele jõuda või on vahepeal tulnud ka uusi "kalu" esile?
  • Ikka sama jutt... ja aktsia käitumine
  • Forbes.com (04.28.05, 6:15 PM ET)
    Eye On Stocks For Friday, April 29

    Nortel Networks (nyse: NT - news - people ) said it plans to file audited financial statements for 2004 tomorrow after the market close. Nortel also said it will file statements for the first quarter of 2005 by the end of May. The delayed filings have been viewed as an overhang on the shares. Earlier this week, Prudential Equity Group maintained a "neutral weight" rating on Nortel, saying it was "encouraged by management's renewed strategic focus after having spent more than a year focusing on accounting revisions." Nortel also said it plans to close the sale of its manufacturing operations to Flextronics in the first quarter of 2006, previously scheduled to close in the first half of 2005.
  • RealMoney G. B. Smith arust nüüd Nortelis ostuaeg ...


  • Nortel Makes It Look Difficult
    By Margaret Ruschmann
    Street Insight Contributor
    6/6/2006 4:58 PM EDT
    URL: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/activetraderupdate/10290138.html


    Nortel (NT:NYSE) didn't exactly light up the earnings board, but its CEO offered reasons why its stock should be a good trade in the coming quarter.

    The company reported a loss this morning of 4 cents a share, a penny worse than consensus estimates. Revenue of $2.38 billion was also below the consensus estimate of $2.54 billion. In sum, it was not a great quarter for Nortel. But we should at least give the company credit for consistency: It manages to disappoint investors on a regular basis.

    At the risk of repeating myself, it looks like the restatements are finally over. On this morning's conference call, CEO Mike Zafirovski was touting the fact that the company is now current on its financials.

    He was also quite candid that this quarter was a disappointment. Gross margins of 38% were down both year over year and sequentially and were meaningfully below the company's full-year target of 40%. Revenue was flat year over year, also below management's goal of high single-digit growth for 2006.

    Three Steps
    So was there any good news in this quarter? I think the answer is yes. Zafirovski is clearly a man in charge who is aggressively developing and implementing a full-scale reinvention of the company.

    First, he is focusing on the cost structure. He is bringing in outside consultants and implementing six sigma programs. The former is helpful because, at times like this, employees can become very political for fear of losing jobs. They tend to be risk-averse. An outsider will not be worried about stating the hard realities of a difficult situation.

    And six sigma is a good idea. Zafirovski is an alumnus of General Electric (GE:NYSE) and Motorola (MOT:NYSE) , two companies that pioneered the art of six sigma. He knows what a powerful force it can be to margins and cash flows if you eliminate inefficiencies across the manufacturing process. He expects gross margins to reach 40% for this year. For the long term, he says they can reach the low 40s.

    Second, he is focusing on growth. Despite the lackluster sales in the first quarter, he reiterated his goal for high-single-digit growth for fiscal 2006. The first quarter was a little light, partially because of timing, so he expects the second quarter to be strong.

    In the short term, he is trying to get growth from a number of areas, including Enterprise Go-To Market, Services and Metro Ethernet networks. In the long term, he is still investing heartily in R&D and plans to be an even stronger player in the aforementioned areas and with newer initiatives, including video, IMS and WiMAX.

    He did caution that this continues to be a competitive business. In particular, Zafirovski said that the GSM/UMTS business is so competitive that he does not want to forecast where its profitability will be down the road. That is a little scary for any investor to hear.

    Third, he is focused on cash and the balance sheet. A company like Nortel cannot afford to be continually whittling away at its balance-sheet cash. It needs to start steadily generating some meaningful cash. Look for some improvement in operating cash flow later this year as well as a nice chunk of cash from the Flextronics deal. But also expect some cash outflows down the road, including the shareholder lawsuit settlement (part cash, part equity) and undetermined fines from government agencies.

    Other Highlights
    Revenue growth was flat this quarter, mostly because of timing issues on some contracts. The company maintains its goal that it will generate revenue growth in the high single digits for 2006. Mobility was down 4%. CDMA was also down 4%, primarily because of timing issues. Nortel, however, continues to be strongly positioned in this part of the market. GSM/UMTS was down 11%, with weakness in North America partially offset by some growth in UMTS and good momentum in Korea. Circuit and Packet Voice was up 17% year over year, thanks to strength in circuit packet in North America and Europe, a 5% increase in optical and good growth in metro optical in North America and Europe. Long haul was flat.

    Gross margins were weak. Speaking in round numbers, gross margins were at 38%, down roughly 400 basis points from the prior year and 100 basis points sequentially. Margins were hurt by a number of factors, including product mix, timing of certain programs, pricing pressures and promotional costs. Management expects these to improve for the balance of the year and in the next couple of years.

    Backlog increased during the quarter, as the book-to-bill ratio was 1.1.

    M&A activity: During the Q&A, management was asked about its role in the M&A game. Zafirovski seemed a little closer to the vest than I would have liked, but he did say the company was not going to do any "silly deals." While consolidation is important for this industry, investors have been burned time and again by companies that are too focused on participating in this game without enough regard to price. I believe Nortel will be disciplined in this arena, but I definitely view this as one of the risks to the shares.

    Full-year guidance remains unchanged. Management seemed confident on the call that it would still hit its earlier forecasts of high-single-digit revenue growth and margins of 40%. Because the first quarter started out so weak, this means that the company really has to make up some lost ground. This puts them in one of those positions I don't like -- namely, the company's forecast is back end-loaded. That often requires a level of trust and betting with management that makes me uncomfortable. This case is no exception to that rule.

    All that being said, I remain long the shares of Nortel in my personal account for some (possibly foolish) reason. I guess it is because I believe that there are still pockets of good growth in a number of the company's core markets, industry consolidation is finally starting to happen, and the internal focus on six sigma and cost-cutting by a well-regarded CEO could all create the kind of environment for good stock performance. The shares opened down this morning, and at the very least, my guess is that these shares are a good trade going into the second quarter.

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