Hiina võimas tõus
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Edward Yardeni sulest ilmunud Hiina võimsuse tõusu ülevaade on vägagi mõtlemapanev. Temapoolne kokkuvõte on positiivne: Hiina tõus on võrreldav 1990. aastate külma sõja lõpuga, mis mõjus aktsiaturgudele soodsalt. Hetkel on see tõesti nii, sest Hiina nõudlus kõrgtehnoloogia ja toormaterjalide järele on väga suur ning kiirelt kasvamas. Küsimus on, et mis edasi? Ehitades tehased üles ning kasutades odavat tööjõudu on kerkimas uus majandushiid ning Euroopa seisukohalt on olukord kriitiline: madal konkurentsivõime ja vananev rahvastik võimaldavad siinsest maailmajaost tulevikus kujunadada vaid midagi elava muuseumi taolist.
Üheseõnaga huvitav lugemine, mis paneb mõtte jooksma.
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Need kes soovivad Hiina aktsiaturu tõusust osa saada, saavad seda nüüd mugavalt teha indeksaktsia FXI abil. Osta kasvõi 5000 krooni jagu Hiinat.
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Kuidas ja kelle kaudu on võimalik FXI-i osta-müüa?
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FXI on indeksaktsia ja seega kaupleb nagu tavaline aktsia. LHV kaudu saab ilusasti kaubelda.
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Palju on FXI ostul/müügil tehingutasu? (ise ei viitsi vaadata)
Kas ka näiteks ka Ukraina indeksiaktsia on olemas ja saab osta? Võibla on tõesti hea mõte hajutada riske ka üle maailma. Nüüd võiks ka Kagu-Aasiast midagi osata?
:-( Ma kardan, et tehingutasud on röögatud. -
MSM,
Teenustasu on selle tehingu puhul 175 EEK+0.3%.
LHV Traderi vahendusel kõigest 9 USD. -
Tänan, aga Ukraina? See peaks ju nüüd mühinal tõusma, kuigi juba eelmina aasta tõusis mitusada %.
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Ukraina kohta vähemalt indeksaktsiat ei ole. Ja eks see võimas tõus aastal 2004 on seal ka ootusi tublisti kergitanud.
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aga mitte et see hiina võimas tõus kuidagi aktsiate hinandes kajastuks :-) või vaatan ma valesid asju? ja kahe pseudohiina etf performance ei tundu ka just otseselt hiinast pärit olema.
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Jah, pealkiri puudutas pigem majandust, kui aktsiaturgu - eelmine aasta ei olnud Hiina aktsiatele just kuigi hea, kuid eks pea kümnend võimast kasvu on ka selja taga. Aga FXI on igatahes instrument, millest puudust oli tunda.
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jah, oleneb mis perioodi vaadata. viimase 6 kuu seest näiteks võib ka mõnesid korralikke tõusjaid leida. ja p/e suhtarvud pole ka liiga meeletud kui neid uskuda võib, muidugi ka EPS konsensuslikud kasvuootused näppujuhtunud ettevõtetel ei olnud mingid imelised.
aga jah, just täna sündis 1.3 miljardes hiinlane nii et teema on asjakohane. -
lehes kirjutas et Hiina aktsiaturg on 6 aasta madalaimal.FXI graafik yoos on ainult 6 kuud.
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Hiina viimase 10.a. graafik:
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Turud päris rahulikud täna, aga vļb kiiresti tulla veel revalveerimised. Hinnatõus siin kuna impordihinnad tõusevad, ja ilmselt Hiina võimalus osta toorained tõuseb ka (nt nafta).
Public Announcement of the People's Bank of China on Reforming the RMB Exchange Rate Regime
July 21, 2005
With a view to establish and improve the socialist market economic system in China, enable the market to fully play its role in resource allocation as well as to put in place and further strengthen the managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand, the People's Bank of China, with authorization of the State Council, is hereby making the following announcements regarding reforming the RMB exchange rate regime:
1. Starting from July 21, 2005, China will reform the exchange rate regime by moving into a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. RMB will no longer be pegged to the US dollar and the RMB exchange rate regime will be improved with greater flexibility.
2. The People's Bank of China will announce the closing price of a foreign currency such as the US dollar traded against the RMB in the inter-bank foreign exchange market after the closing of the market on each working day, and will make it the central parity for the trading against the RMB on the following working day.
3. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will be adjusted to 8.11 yuan per US dollar at the time of 19:00 hours of July 21, 2005. The foreign exchange designated banks may since adjust quotations of foreign currencies to their customers.
4. The daily trading price of the US dollar against the RMB in the inter-bank foreign exchange market will continue to be allowed to float within a band of ??/span>0.3 percent around the central parity published by the People's Bank of China, while the trading prices of the non-US dollar currencies against the RMB will be allowed to move within a certain band announced by the People's Bank of China.
The People's Bank of China will make adjustment of the RMB exchange rate band when necessary according to market development as well as the economic and financial situation. The RMB exchange rate will be more flexible based on market condition with reference to a basket of currencies. The People's Bank of China is responsible for maintaining the RMB exchange rate basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level, so as to promote the basic equilibrium of the balance of payments and safeguard macroeconomic and financial stability. -
Yuan/USD määrati 8,1111 täna, ehk hoopis väike Yuani devalveerimine võrreldes eilse kursiga.
Arvata võib aga et rahavoolud Hiinasse on hetkel päris tugevad. Ekspordid sealt "overpriced" ja impordid vastupidi. Signaal et kurs võib muuta on arvatavasti rahavooludele tähtsam kui seda leevendamist mis 2% revalveerimne pakus.
Huvitav vaadata edasi. -
Lihtsalt huvitav seisukoht tänases EPL-s üsna respekteeritud mehelt. Kuna lugu lühike, siis ehk andestatakse täismahus copy-paste. Mulle igatahes väga meeldis :)
Jüaani revalveerimine võib panna alguse protsessile, mis pöörab kogu maailmamajanduse pea peale või õigemini - õigetpidi, kirjutab New York Timesis kolumnist Paul Krugman.
Klassikaliselt liigub kapital arenenud riikidest vähem arenenutesse, umbes nagu 19. sajandil Inglismaalt USA-sse. Nii käis see kuni 1997. aastal alanud ülemaailmse finantskriisini. Nüüd liiguvad vahendid arenevatest turgudest, eriti Hiinast, USA-sse.
Hiina puhul on see ametliku poliitika tulemus. Vältimaks jüaani kursi tõusu, on Peking ostnud kokku tohututes kogustes dollareid ning investeerinud need USA võlakirjadesse. Vaatlejad on eri arvamusel sellise poliitika mõistlikkuses: paigutab ju Hiina raha kõrgema elatusstandardi asemel sisuliselt kasututesse dollarikuhjadesse.
Ostupalaviku lõppemine tooks jüaani väärtuse kiire tõusu. Dollarile tähendaks see aga kukkumist kõikide valuutade suhtes, mida Hiina on seni vähem kokku ostnud. Ühe ohtlikuma tagajärjega ähvardab USA majandust sel juhul intressimäärade tõus, mis on paratamatu: föderaalreservil tuleks meelitada laenuraha kõr-gemate boonustega. Kõrgemad intressid ähvardavad aga lõhkuda paisuva kinnisvaramulli.
Pikemas perspektiivis paneb see majanduse jälle õigetpidi tööle, kuid esmalt on ilmselt kaotajaid rohkem kui võitjaid. Ent, nagu märgib Krugman, pole ükski supervõim elanud laenuraha varal juba ilmselt Hispaania kuningast Philip II-st saadik. Praegu on krediitkaart Hiina käes. -
www.forbes.com/home/investmentnewsletters/2005/07/27/china-gold-lehmann-cz_rl_0727soapbox_inl.html
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Koos Hongkongiga maailma neljas (ilma kuues) majandus.
Edetabelis SKP elaniku kohta ei mahu esimese 100 hulka.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051220/china_bigger_economy.html?.v=5 -
Economist ennustas, et Hiina hakkab järgmisel aastal kõvasti tagasi andma.
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Sa, iPilot, pead ka kõik hea ja ilusa ära rikkuma :(
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See, et USA krediitkaart on Hiina käes, jääb faktiks ikka. Ära kurvasta :-)
Siin hakkab veel mängu ilu nägema. -
Hiina firmade oma kaubamärkide ja jaekettide loomine võib lähiaastatel olla oluline trend näiteks rõiva- ja kingaäris, kus marginalid on olnud kõrged tänu Hiina allhankele:
Footwear maker wears own shoes
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2006-03-17 11:20
China's largest leather shoemaker has put the shoes on its own feet, deciding to sell footwear under its own brand after being a supplier to famous brands such as Prada and Timberland for more than a decade.
Hong Kong-based Stella International Ltd, which exported 5 billion yuan (US$621 million) worth of shoes last year, plans to open 100 stores across China under the Stella Luna brand in three years.
"We plan to invest 1 billion yuan to open the stores in China's major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu and Chongqing," said Jimmy Chen, the firm's chairman, who opened its first store on Shanghai's Huaihai Road.
He added that the firm plans to have 30 stores this year alone.
The company, which is the original design manufacturer for LVMH Group, Paul Smith and other top luxury brands, said it also signed an agency deal with American fashion brand Guess pending its entry to the US market.
"The partner will help us open stores in New York and San Francisco in two years," said Chen. "We will later expand our brand to Europe and other Asian markets including Japan."
Source:Shanghai Daily -
Stephen Roach (Morgan Stanley) raport China Development Forumist (Hiina pingutus suurendada eratarbimist, Hiina peaministri kommentaarid, Ameerika pro-tariif senaatorite Hiinavisiidist):
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060322-wed.html#anchor0 -
FT: China’s competitiveness ‘on the decline’
By Tom Mitchell in Hong Kong
Published: March 22 2006 18:21 | Last updated: March 23 2006 03:28
The competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industries has suffered serious erosion over the past year, according to one of the world’s largest trade sourcing companies.
Varsti on Hiina tõsises hädas oma liigse tootmisvõimsusega. -
Varasematest tunduvalt rahulikumad numbrid Hiinast, tundub mulle:
Foreign Investment rose 6.4% in 1st quarter
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2006-04-15 11:17
Foreign direct investment in China, the world's second-largest recipient of funds from abroad, rose 6.4 percent in the first three months of the year from a year earlier.
Actual foreign investment rose to $14.25 billion, the Beijing-based Ministry of Commerce said today on its Web site. Foreign investment rose 7.8 percent to $8.6 billion in the first two months.
Ja kindlasti tõusvad nafta- ja metallihinnad, koos üha kallineva tööjõukuludega, valmistavad Hiinale probleeme:
China to curb excessive growth in fixed asset investment, money supplies
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2006-04-15 13:22
The Chinese government on Friday moved to avert a possible overheating economy by tightening controls on fixed asset investments and money supply.
The State Council made the decision at an executive meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao, where it pledged to tackle other problems giving priority to grain production and raising farmers' incomes. -
Hmm, see on huvitav, et niipalju tähelepanu pühendati tervailjale. Lugesin kuskilt kollasevõitu investeerimislehelt, et tõusvate energia ja toorainete hindade juures on praegu teravili ja puuvill alahinnatud ning suure tõusupotentsiaaliga. Seda näib kinnitavat ka Stovalli mudel. Kas keegi oskab kommenteerida maailma teravilja ning puuvilla seisu ning pakkuda välja investeermisfonde, mis põhiliselt sellega tegelevad?
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Puuvillahinnad millegipärst ei tõusnud, jah. Lugesin, et Hiina ostab isegi Ameerikast (äkki seal subsideeritud). Arvan ka et Hiina on ka oma enda puuvillatoodangu kõvasti tõstnud viimati.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CT1%21&o=&a=D&z=610x300&d=medium&b=LINE&st= -
Chinese President Hu Jintao said today that China’s economy grew 10.2% in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, but said the government is concerned about overly rapid growth.
“We do not seek high-speed economic growth,” Hu said during a meeting with a former Taiwan opposition leader in Beijing. “We are concerned about the pace of development and the quality and the effect of our growth. We are also concerned about saving our resources, environmental protection and the improvement of our people’s livelihood.”
Allikas: "Irish Examiner" 16.04.2006 -
Andy Xie (MorganStanley) kirjeldas eile miks inflatsioon Hiina poolt võib tõusta:
The world has dumped its pollution in China in the past five years. According to China’s EPA, China’s pollution is 12 times the world average per unit of GDP. The emission of sulfur dioxide is 22.5 mn tons compared to the maximum carrying capacity of 12 for the country. Two-fifths of the seven major river basins are severely polluted. 90% of the rivers running through cities suffer from severe pollution problems. 300 million rural residents have no access to purified water. One-third of China’s territory suffers from the effects of acid rain. Two-thirds of the population suffers from poor air quality.
China’s environmental catastrophe is a poorly understood factor in the global disinflationary trend. If the relocated factories had to subscribe to the same environmental standards as in the OECD countries, goods made in China may not have been so cheap. My guesstimate is that the lesser costs for pollution have been more important than cheap labor in the disinflationary pressure from China.
China is waking up to the need to normalize pollution costs. Guangdong Province may close thousands of businesses that do not meet environmental regulations. The NDRC just issued tightening instructions on the carbide-based PVC industry that creates serious pollution.
China’s policies to increase wages (see ‘Raising Wages, not Currency’, 12 May 2006) will increase China’s export price substantially, by 20-30% for industries like knitwear. The normalization of pollution standards could do the same for many chemical products.
Normalization of China’s production is a major source of cyclical inflation. Part of the unsustainable disinflation between 2002-05 has to be regurgitated. -
Palgatõus ka Hiinas:
Income grows steadily in Yangtze delta
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2006-05-22 16:37
Residents in Yangtze River Delta received an average disposable income of 5,375 yuan (US$671) in the first quarter of this year, growing 14.4 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics reported today.
The average disposable income of a Shaoxing resident was 7,281 yuan in the period, the highest of the 16 cities in the delta. It also posted the fastest growth rate in the area. Shanghai ranked fifth with 5,870 yuan.
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Hiinast muudki põnevat: imerohi vähi vastu :)
http://www.markskousen.com/visitor.php?offer=10327 -
Tore lugu,
kiiresti silmadega üle lastes on nagu nigeeria kiri :)
ehk on guuglist abi -
Veel Hiina inflatsiooni teemal (kuigi ametlik inflatsioon endiselt madal):
The Shenzhen government will raise minimum wage by 17.4 percent to 810 yuan (US$100) a month, or 4.66 yuan per hour, for a year from July 1.
A government official said the growth of minimum wage will help attract more qualified laborers to meet the needs of the city's economic development, since 82 percent of Shenzhen's 7 million people are from other cities.
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The recent increase in the price of oil products in China by at least 10 per cent is unlikely to lead to inflation, analysts say.
"I am not worried about inflation- the Chinese economy is developing steadily," said Zhou Fengqi, an energy expert who previously worked at the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC).
The NDRC, China's top economic planning body, last week increased the price of gasoline by 10.6 per cent, diesel by 12.3 per cent and jet fuel by 10.3 per cent. -
Hiina valuutareserv tõusis märtsist maini 875 mrd USDlt 941 mrd USDni. Huvitav kui kaua veel Hiina tahab reaaltooteid prinditud dollari vastu välja vahetada.
FDI (otseinvesteeringud välismaalt) Hiinasse vähenes H1 0,5% võrra, pärast 12% vähenemist juunis. Ei mäleta millal ma viimati nägin mingisuguseid miinusnumbreid Hiinast. -
Guangdong raises minimum salary level
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2006-07-13 09:23
GUANGZHOU: South China's Guangdong Province will raise its minimum salary levels in September, in attempt to make the province a more appealing destination for migrant workers.
The increased monthly pay will benefit more than 23 million migrants workers who are currently employed in the province, said Fang Chaogui, director general of Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Labour and Social Security.
"Guangdong will once again lead the way in minimum salary levels," Fang told a press conference in Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong Province, yesterday.
After the new standard comes into effect September 1, workers in Guangzhou will earn a minimum of 780 yuan (US$97.5). In Shenzhen it is increased to 810 yuan (US$101.25), while in cities Zhuhai, Foshan, Dongguan and Zhongshan the minimum will be 690 yuan (US$86.25).
The increase is on average 17.8 per cent, Fang said.
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Source:China Daily -
Jah, aga - kas selline palgatõus reaalselt tõstab firmade kulutusi tööjõule või toob kasvav palkade gradient kaasa väiksema tööjõu liikuvuse ja seega oluliselt väiksemad kulutused koolitusele ja kõrgema tööjõudlikuse? Hiina tööjõud võib ju olla odav, aga siiani kaasnes sellega see, et töötajad lahkus umbes 2 aasta pärast (k.a. koolitus) tagasi sisemaale kodukülla kus ostis omale maja / abiellus ja jätkas suures osas eelmist elu.
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Looking at the other side of the coin -
Hiinast on suvel hakanud üha sagedamini tulema uudiseid kuidas püüakse ümber suunata majandus sisemaise tarbimise poole:
www.chinadaily.cn
Hu pledges to rein in economic boom
(Agencies)
Updated: 2006-07-24 21:42
President Hu Jintao called Monday for more efforts to control sizzling economic growth and spread the benefits of China's boom to the poor, state media reported.
Hu's public appeal reflected mounting official urgency about the twin challenges of managing China's surging growth and assuaging public anger at a growing gap between rich and poor.
The president called for faster capitalist-style reforms and more effective economic controls at a meeting of Communist Party leaders and prominent figures outside the party, the official Xinhua News Agency and state television said.
In keeping with those concerns, the leadership announced that its annual Central Committee meeting will take place in October and focus on spreading wealth to the millions left behind by reforms that have enriched an urban elite.
The government must "control the scale of investment" in the second half of this year, Hu said, after economic growth soared to 11.3 percent in the second quarter, its highest rate in a decade.
Hu didn't mention any new initiatives. The government has already tightened lending rules for banks and barred building of villas and other luxury projects outright. Despite that, the number of new construction projects soared by 22.2 percent in the first half. Economists expect Beijing to raise interest rates for a second time this year.
Xinhua said the party meeting in October will focus on building a "harmonious country" - a reference to official efforts to ease tensions over China's growing wealth gap between regions and social classes.
Hu called for officials to "resolve issues that seriously concern the people and the masses," such as improving access to schools and doctors, the reports said.
The government faces rising public frustration in areas throughout the country over the loss of farmland to real estate development.
Earlier Monday, the government announced new proposed rules to limit foreign investment in real estate in an effort to cool off the building boom.
Foreigners would face "restrictions on residential property purchases," Xinhua said, without giving details. It said developers would be required to invest more of their own money in projects to reduce heavy borrowing.
The rules are meant to "improve the efficiency of using foreign investment," Xinhua said. It didn't say when they would take effect.
China has had limited success in attempts to control frenzied building of factories, luxury apartment and other projects that has turned its cities into forests of construction cranes.
Investment from Hong Kong and other sources outside Chinaese mainland has poured into real estate.
Foreign investment in real estate rose 27.9 percent in the first six months of the year, compared with the same period of 2005, Xinhua said, without giving the total amount invested.
Investors apparently hope to profit from rising prices and an anticipated rise in China's currency, the yuan, which would push up the value of mainland assets in foreign currency terms.
SPURRING CONSUMPTION
Xie Fuzhan, vice head of the Development Research Centre, a think-tank under the cabinet, was cited by state media on Monday as saying China should raise interest rates and increase the yuan's flexibility to help tighten credit.
Hu stressed the need to rebalance the economy away from exports and investment towards domestic consumption to help sustain the country's economic growth.
"We should actively expand domestic demand to let it play a greater role in driving economic growth and expand consumption by peasants and low-income urban residents," he said.
Many economists say that a key obstacle to expanding consumption will be to improve the social welfare and health care systems so that low-income groups feel less of a need to save for a rainy day.
China would also take steps to bring greater balance to its trade, including pushing for exporters to move up the value chain, the agency cited Hu as saying.
The government is considering plans to cut tax rebates for exporters as part of a drive to wean the economy off of exports of resource-intensive products.
Hu also pledged to push reforms of state-owned enterprises and also deepen reforms in taxation and financial sectors. -
Iga päev uudised Hiinast sellest et leevendada investeerimisbuumi ja tõsta sisemaist tarbimist. Tulemuseks kõrgemad palgad ja hinnad:
China has accelerated plans to impose a tax on gasoline, diesel and kerosene to encourage conservation amid surging oil imports.
The government wants to roll out the tax in the near future and is closely watching world oil prices, Xinhua news agency said, citing Vice Finance Minister Liao Xiaojun.
Shanghai Daily
China's premier called for urgent steps to prevent economic overheating, state media reported Thursday, highlighting the increasing concern about keeping the nation's soaring growth from igniting a financial crisis.
"We must take forceful measures to resolve prominent problems to prevent the economy's rapid growth from turning into overheating," Premier Wen Jiabao said Wednesday in a teleconference with officials nationwide, according to news reports.
Wen, China's top economic official, told officials to "resolutely control" an investment boom that drove economic growth in the second quarter to 11.3 percent, its highest rate in a decade, the Communist Party newspaper People's Daily and the official Xinhua News Agency, among others, reported.
Chinese leaders want to keep economic growth high in order to reduce poverty. But they worry that double-digit growth in investment and lending could soar out of control, igniting inflation or leaving banks buried under dangerously high debt.
AP
Shanghai drops in disposable income ranking
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2006-07-27 13:30
First the bad news. Shanghai dropped from first to fourth in a ranking of disposable income in 16 Yangtze Delta cities, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday.
But the good news is the city's disposable income climbed 10.9 percent in the first half of 2006 from a year earlier to 1,784 yuan (US$223) per month.
The bureau also said the disposable income gap between cities in the Yangtze Delta region remained high in the first half of this year due to uneven economic development within the area.
Nonetheless, disposable income in the 16 regional cities climbed 15 percent in the first six months to an average of 1,533 yuan per month compared to a year earlier. The growth was 0.3 percentage points slower than the same period last year.
"Unlike smaller cities in Zhejiang Province, people in Shanghai prefer a stable job rather than setting up businesses," said Li Mingliang, an analyst at Haitong Securities Co. "But salary levels are still higher in Shanghai than other Yangtze delta cities as more multinational companies have offices here."
The top three cities are in Zhejiang with Shaoxing ranked No. 1. It's average disposable income was 1,857 yuan per month, up 18.3 percent from a year earlier. Shaoxing was followed by Taizhou and Ningbo.
Shanghai Daily
1857 yuan oleks siis umbes 230 USD, ehk juba 2 800 EEK -
Mda arvavad spetsialistid Hiina indeks aktsiatest näiteks FXI - iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FXI)
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nüüd puterdasin pisut sellest on juba juttu rohkem kuiküll
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Üks näide Hiina ettevõtete ja tööjõupoliitika paindlikkuse kohta.
Hiina ettevõte KongZhong Corporation (Nasdaq: KONG) teatas, et reageerides Hiina telekomioperaatorite uutele regulatsioonidele vähendab KONG oma 2006.a. käibeprognoosi ja võtab ette tööjõu vähendamise ca 15% võrra.
Ja huvitav on see, et plaan viiakse ellu 2 nädalaga.
Uudis siin:
BEIJING, July 31 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- KongZhong Corporation
(Nasdaq: KONG), a leading provider of wireless value-added services (WVAS) and
an operator of one of the leading wireless internet portals in China, today,
announced a headcount reduction program to layoff approximately 15% of its
workforce.
In response to new policies issued by the telecommunication operators in
China, KongZhong Corporation lowered its 2006 revenue guidance on July 7, 2006.
To reduce cost and improve operational efficiency, KongZhong Corporation
initiated a headcount reduction program and is in the process of reducing its
workforce by approximately 15%. The Company had 1,016 employees at the end of
June 2006. The Company plans to complete the headcount reduction program
within two weeks.
Commenting on the event, Yunfan Zhou, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer,
said, ''It is unfortunate that we have to let some people go in response to
the changes in the market environment. I would like to thank all of our
employees for their dedication and hard work. Although we are going through a
difficult time, we will continue to focus on our two major businesses -
wireless value added services and wireless internet portal. We strongly
believe in the long term prospect of wireless internet and are confident we
will continue to be one of the market leaders in China.'' -
Andy Xie artikkel täna Hiina ülekuumenemisest:
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060808-tue.html#anchor3 -
Hiina kasvab vähemalt kuni Pekingi olümpiamängudeni
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Intressitõstmine 0,27pp Hiinas täna.
Päris huvitav oli Andy Xie (Morgan Stanley) artikkel natuke aega tagasi:
"The irony is that, even though China is a government-led economy, its only effective tightening policy is to limit credit through monetary policy as in a market-led economy. What makes its monetary policy ineffective is the lack of an independent central bank.
Is it possible to have an independent central bank in a one-party-led economy? It sounds unfeasible. However, independent central banks have risen out of necessity in other countries. It is possible that, after a difficult experience following a period of overheating, China would give the central bank independence." -
Räägitakse üha rohkem jüaani convertibility-st, keegi ametnik vist juba mainis aasta 2008. Tundub ka et volatiilsuse tõus lubatakse tunduvalt varem:
China says banks need to prepare for Yuan fluctuation
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2006-09-18 17:16
China's bank regulator called on the country's lenders to prepare for currency fluctuations, a day after Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said more flexibility will be introduced.
The government's plan to liberalize the foreign exchange market ``heightens the need for more products by banks and corporations to hedge their currency risks,'' Liu said in Singapore yesterday at a seminar organized by the Institute of International Finance.
China wants banks to learn how to use derivative products that have been introduced to help manage risk. Zhou on Sept. 16 stepped up pressure for lenders to prepare for currency changes, warning that otherwise they'd ``move too slowly.''
``In the past, foreign exchange volatility hasn't been a big issue so banks' risk management techniques are quite straightforward,'' said Ryan Tsang, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Standard & Poor's. ``If they're going to face a more volatile market, the game's going be very different.''
Zhou said the band in which the currency trades against the dollar will be widened ``sooner or later.'' Zhou was speaking in Singapore, where he was attending the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. The Group of Seven nations, also meeting in the city state, later urged China to make its currency more flexible.
``The chances of yuan appreciation are greater now than ever,'' said Ben Simpfendorfer, China strategist at RBS in Hong Kong. China's government ``is increasingly comfortable that they've curbed growth in the first quarters this year and is now focused on the trade balance and liquidity, and the currency plays a greater role in that.''
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Michael Milken toob välja vägagi huvitava graafiku. Mõelge ikka pikemas perspektiivis:)
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/09/milken-on-world-economy.html -
Soovitan lugeda selle nädala The Economisti - mõtlemapanev ülevaade maailmamajanduse trendidest, ja eriti arenevate turgude/Hiina rollist.
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Natuke pikema ajaskaalaga sarnane graafik: Re-emerging economies
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Hiina valuutareserv on praegu piisavalt suur, et maksta kõik Hiina naftaimportide eest üle 10 aasta jooksul praeguse naftahinna ja impordimahu juures. [1 000 000 000 000 USD/(3 500 000 bbl/päev * 365 päev/aasta * 60 USD/bbl)= 13 aastat.]
Nafta ja toorainede hinnakukkumine viimasel ajal vähendab Hiina impordikulud oluliselt ja tõstab nende kaubanduse ülejääki veelgi. Kuigi ameeriklaste impordikasv Hiinast ilmselt väheneb, võib arvata et dollarid uputavad Hiinat veel rohkem kui varem ja sunnib Hiinat kiiremat jüaanitõusu lubama, et sisemaist tarbimist ka importi meelitada.
