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Börsipäev 13-14 mai - pullide test

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • -USA futuurid on miinuses, ning Nasdaq peaks avanema eilsest sulgemishinnast pool protsenti madalamal. USA jaemüük langes aprillis 0,5%, mis oli oodatust rohkem, samas on toiduainete ja energia hinnatõus väga kiire.

    -USA tootjahinnaindeks kerkis aprillis 0,7%, märtsis tõusis vastav näitaja 1,3%. Samas kui volatiilsed toiduainete ja energiahinnad maha arvestada, siis kerkis näitaja vaid 0,2%.

    -Disney (DIS) aktsia on eelturul 1,7% plussis, firma eelmise kvartali kasum kasvas üle ootuste hästi (73% tõusu).

    -Vaatamata aprilli jaemüüginumbri nõrkusele on hoos Wal-Mart aktsia (WMT), firma kasum ületas sendi võrra aktsia kohta prognoose (22 senti) ning küündis 2,2 miljardi dollarini.

    -Deutsche Bank kergitas Texas Instruments (TXN) soovitust "hoia" peale. UBS andis ostusoovituse Goldman Sachs (GS) aktsiale.

    Rev Shark:

     

    After the huge intraday reversal yesterday, do market participants now have the hope and faith and confidence to drive this market higher? Has fear and uncertainty been washed out in a finally-selling climax and paved the way for steady accumulation to shift the trend back up? 

    Maybe. The big reversal yesterday certainly was significant. The indices bounced almost precisely at the same moment the S&P 500 tested its 200-day simple moving average. It was the second test in the past three days, but it acted as a catapult for the market. Technicians believe that the more times an area of support is tested, the less likely it is to hold. So we will have to keep a very close eye on that level, which is 1078, in the days ahead. 

    Technically, an intraday reverse of that magnitude is a big positive. When we sell off that hard and then reverse, many marginal and nervous bulls are likely to get shaken out. With these nervous holders on the sidelines, stocks are now generally in stronger hands and have a better foundation for moving higher. 

    However, the big reversal does not justify blind faith in the upside. Overall, many individual stock charts and most of the indices still look very weak, but just a little less weak than they did about two hours before yesterday's close. While the S&P 500 and DJIA did manage to reclaim their 200-day simple moving averages (the Nasdaq didn't), a market isn't too healthy when all the major indices are still under their 50-day simple moving averages. 

    The market needs to reward our faith with some follow through. A one-day reversal does not set up compelling entry points in most individual stock charts. The most rewarding buy points generally come after a stock has hit a low and bounced around a bit. Only after some work has been done and a new base of support has been built is the risk-to-reward ratio in our favor. 

    The major problem for this market now is some very substantial overhead. Although yesterday's reversal looks very promising, there are plenty of folks still holding positions with unrealized losses who will be happy to sell if they can get back close to even. The first major area of overhead for the Nasdaq is the 200-day simple moving average at 1942 and then the 1975 area. 

    Both the DJIA and S&P 500 have some overhead in areas slightly below their 50-day simple moving averages. For the DJIA, that level is around 10,250 and for the S&P 500 around 1120. Those levels would constitute quite a substantial move, and the tone of this market is going to have to continue at very positive levels to put that overhead into play. 

    The move yesterday was a good start, but it doesn't justify throwing caution to the wind. We need proof that the reversal was real and not just a product of program trading and traders looking for some quick profits. The long-term institutional buyers need to step up and show us some accumulation. 

    I continue to feel quite strongly that there still is no big rush to build long-term positions in individual stocks. Watch for support levels to build and logical entry points to form. It will take a few days after a market turn for the best long-term buy points to form. 

    In the early going, the market is looking a bit hung over from yesterday's joie de vivre. We have some economic news coming up this morning that will help set the tone for the day. The most important thing for the indices is that they not give back too much of yesterday's gains. The recent lows are the obvious support levels, and if we stay above them there is hope that a major turn is at hand.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Soovitan jälgida täna Goldman Sachs'i (GS), mis sai UBS Warburgi käest upgreidi. Finants juhtis turgu täna hommikul Euroopas ka. Lisaks sellele oli GS-s eile kõvasti shorte, kes mängisid insader sales'i peale. Täna ärkasid nad ebameeldiva üllatusega (UBS) ning ilmselt tahavad katta oma positsioone. (kuna ülejäänud turg on ka suht pos).

    FWIW


    long GS,

    sB
  • Eilne päev oli küll tore, kuid edasise suhtes on üsna oluline kuidas tänase päeva alguse miinust talutakse, kui lähipäevadel põrge ei jätku, siis suundume ilmselt allapoole.
  • Finantssektor jõudis just plusspoolele, Oliveri mainitud põhjustel võib kogu turgu vedada.
  • Nüüd on GS pool tunnikest paigal tammunud. My bet? Varsti veel üks suurem samm üles. Stop peaks asuma nüüd kusagil 93.70 kandis.

    FWIW,

    sB
  • Kes lasi 5 000 000 QQQ @ 35.21 läbi? Tunnistage kohe üles! :)


    sB
  • QQQ murdis päevasisese trendline ning läks punasesse vs eelmise päeva close. Mitte just kõige parem märk.

    FWIW,

    sB
  • Lisaks sellele 35.15 (QQQ) taseme murdmine tähendaks head-and-shoulders formatsiooni murdumist allapoole. Ka see pole hea märk.

    sB
  • Klassikaline retracement ja siis jälle ilmselt alla.


    sB
  • Täna õhtul peale börsipäeva DELL ja homme enne turgu CPI (tarbijahinnaindeks), mis annab indikatsiooni praegu üliaktuaalse teema kohta - inflatsioon. Seega täna õhtustest liikumistest on olulisem reedene päev.
  • 16:00 DELL prelim $0.28, vs $0.28 consensus; revs $11.5 bln, vs $11.35 bln consensus

    DELL tuli tulemustega täpselt ootustele vastavalt ja kindlasti oodati rohkemat, aktsia protsendi miinuses. Prognoosid edasiseks annavad täpsema suuna.
  • Hansat saab jätkuvalt soodushinnaga nagu NOK-gi, pikaajalistele investoritele soovitan osta NFI
  • Dell Computer (DELL), maailma suurim PC-tootja rikkus ära eilse järelturu ning tundub, et rikub ära ka tänase hommiku. Ilmselt paljud turuosalised ootasid tavalist, 1-2% hüpet reaktsioonina traditsiooniliselt tugevatele tulemustele. Siiski seekord saadi üllatus.

    Aprilli alguses oli Dell oma käibeprognoosi $11.4 miljardi peale tõstnud ning turuosalised ootasid kasumiks aktsia kohta $0.28. Eile tuli firma käive aga $100 miljoni võrra suurem prognoosist, kuid EPS oli ikka $0.28. See rääkib survest marginaalidele, mis on tõenäoliselt tingitud kõrgematest PC-komponentide hindadest.

    Ka järgmise kvartali prognoosid sarnanesid eelmise omadele, kuna firma tõstis veidi käibeprognoosi, kuid EPS jäi samale tasemele konsensusega. Ka prognoositav maksumäär oli oodatust veidi madalam, mis oleks pidanud aitama EPS-i. Jällegi surve marginaalidele.

    - Kuigi ühelt poolt on see negatiivne uudis Delli jaoks, siis teiselt poolt räägib see sellest, et komponentide tootjad suudavad ka ennast veidi kehtestada. Kes esimesena meelde tuleb? Ilmselt Micron (MU) - üks suuremaid DRAM-i tootjaid. Kes veel? Võib-olla isegi kõvaketaste tootjad? WDC, MXT, STX. Äkki saavad need kolm ka ükskord kasumihoiatuste nõiaringist välja?

    Komponente tootvad firmad ilmselt tunnevad, et asjad lähevad sektoris ülesmäge ning püüavad oma osa suurenenud kasumist saada. Dell ja teised suured tegijad, kes on viimase 3-4 aasta jooksul harjunud turgu solkima, saavad seda oma nahal tunda. Kas Dell saab hindu kergitada, ilma et HPQ ja muud tegijad turuosa ära ei napsa? Saab näha. Aga ilmselt sellepärast ongi DELL täna 3-4% all vs eelmine close. $34 juures peaks mingi lühiajaline põrge ikka ära tulema. Päevasiseselt rääkides.

    Ja veel, vähemalt siiani pole keegi veel MU-d ja muid suppliereid ostma tormanud.


    FWIW

    sB
  • AAC on tana yldise tahelepanu all, NR1 active board on Yahoo Finance Group.
    http://biz.yahoo.com/co/
    Vaatame, kuidas aktsial tana laheb.
  • Energy, mis sa arvad, mida see Yahoo! boardi aktiivsus näitab? Ülipalju spekulante on sees. Ja kuna seda aktsiat shortida enamus ei saa, siis on need kõik pikad positsioonid. Ohtlik olukord.
  • Seda kyll, ise AAC long.
    Oletan, et tana hind siiski langeb, kuna paljud loodsid veel paremaid tulemusi.
  • -Hiina aprillikuu inflatsiooninumber on muret tekitav - 7 aasta kiireim hinnakasv pani langema kohaliku aktsiaturu, sest kardetakse valitsuse poolt rakendatavat kitsendavat rahapoliitikat. Maailma aktsiaturgudele on Hiina kasvu aeglustumine aga üheks tõusvaks riskiallikaks. USA eelturg kerges miinuses, kuigi USA tarbijahinnaindeks kerkis oodatud 0,2% (aprillis).

    -Arvutitootja Dell (DELL) aktsia on eelturul 3% miinuses, firma esimese kvartali tulud küll ületasid ootusi, kuid kerkivad komponentide hinnad oodatust suuremat kasumit ei võimaldanud.

    -Tarkvarafirma BEA Systems (BEAS) aktsia on eelturul 15% miinuses, firma kasum vastas küll ootustele, kuid tarkvara litsentsitulud olid oodatust väiksemad.

    -Tubakafirma Altria (MO ) sai veidi toetust UBS kõrgemast reitingust, aktsia eelturul 0,6% plussis.

    Rev Shark:

    One of the consequences of a market downturn is that it saps confidence. The bulls who were hoping for lower prices so they could put more money to work suddenly have second thoughts when the trend turns down. The arguments that supported their optimism when prices where higher and the market was acting better don't seem so compelling anymore. 

    When the market is trending up and things are acting well, it is easy to talk confidently about buying when prices are lower. But when prices are actually lower and the market is fretting over things like oil prices and interest rate increases, confidence has a way of slipping away. 

    The action yesterday was a good demonstration of the uncertainty that is weighing on the market. After the big intraday reversal on Wednesday, the market was set up for some follow-through but the bulls struggled just to hold things close to flat. The positive momentum created by the very strong bounce dissipated quickly as the bulls made it clear they are skeptical about the ability of the market to start a new up-leg. 

    The reasons for the lack of confidence in this market aren't a big mystery. Interest rates and inflation remain the biggest problem. Booming oil prices, the festering situation in Iraq and the general lack of positive news also has sapped the energy of the optimists. 

    What this market badly needs are some confident bulls with a supply of cash. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot on the horizon that is going to bring those folks forth. Even if we do see an increase in optimism, we have to wonder how much buying power the bulls have. Mutual fund cash levels are very low. However, if bonds continue to flounder, we may see equities helped by asset allocation strategies. 

    The bottom line is that this market lacks confidence and is in poor technical shape. We simple do not have any good reasons to be aggressively long right now, and it is going to take more than one big intraday swing like we saw on Wednesday to turn the direction of the market back up. We need some solid up days with good breadth and volume. When we start seeing that sort of action, then it will be time to start deploying our capital. 

    For now, ignore the psychological pressures to rush and put your cash to work. The market is always beckoning and traditional Wall Street tends to reinforce his inducements. That cash you are holding is a precious commodity and should not be casually deployed. You want to make sure your cash works hard for you and that means waiting until the conditions are right for sustained upside. 

    We have rather dreary action in the early going. Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) failed to generate any excitement with its in-line earnings report. Once again China is signally that it is slamming the brakes on its overheated economy. Rising oil prices are causing concerns around the world and most overseas markets are lower. 

    We will have the chance to consider inflationary pressures in the U.S. when the consumer price index is released at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Consensus is for an increase of 0.3% overall and an increase of 0.2% in the "core" rate. Given how much more we are paying for gasoline and a number of other things these days, I wouldn't be surprised to see a surprise to the upside. 

    It is tough going out there. The best thing you can do right now is to stay patient.

    Jeff Cooper:

     

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