LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 17.-18. mai - pullitest

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • -USA turud avanevad reedesest tasemest tunduvalt allpool. Euroopa ja Aasia turud on üle 2% miinuses ning peamine põhjus nafta hinna jätkuv tõus ning Iraagi rahutuste kasv.

    -Nafta hind on kerkinud juba 41,7 dollari juurde barreli eest ning Iraagist tulev negatiivsete uudiste voog ei luba olulist paranemist lähiajal ette  näha.  Euro tugevnes dollari vatsu üle protsendi ning on taas üle 1,2 eur/usd taseme.

    -Norteli (NT) aktsia on taas löögi alla, Kanada telekomivarustuse juhid said nädal enne kvartalitulemuste ülevaatamise teadet hea töö eest lisaboonust. Aktsia on eelturul pea 5% miinuses.

    -Nii terrorismiohu kui nafta hinna tõusule on tundlik lennundussektor, British Airways (BAB) aktsia on Euroopas 4% miinuses.

    -Oracle (ORCL ) alandas oma rivaali PeopleSoft (PSFT) ülevõtmispakkumist 7,7 miljardile dollarile. Oracle eelturul -1,8%, Peoplesoft -2,8%.

    Rev Shark:

    The market is suffering from the slings and arrows of the external world this morning. The head of the Iraqi Governing Counsel was killed in a suicide attack, which raises concerns about the planned hand over of control on June 30. 

    The market in India is suffering what some may consider a crash. The primary Indian stock index was down as much as 17% as recent political changes, which many consider to be unfriendly to business interests, shake up the market mood. 

    Oil prices continue to soar, the dollar is down against the euro and yen, and bonds continue to fall as rates rise. Overall it is one very painful market for the bulls and they are suffering the consequences of their optimism. 

    The weakness this morning is particularly interesting given the pervasive view recently that sentiment had gotten so negative and the market so oversold that a bounce was inevitable. So many traders seemed to be anticipating a reflex bounce that you had to wonder if the real contrary position was to expect the market to continue lower. 

    The big problem for this market is that we have so few positive catalysts right now. Earnings season is over, strong economic news only causes worries about interest rate hikes, and geopolitical events seem to be going from bad to worse. 

    This gloomy picture is confirmed by the weak technical action of the major indices. The Nasdaq has been struggling mightily to hold on to the 1900 level, which is destined to fall on the open. This will be the third time in the last few days it has been breached but we have yet to close under that level. However, each time we crack that plateau it increases the likelihood of another leg down. 

    The S&P 500, DJIA and Russell 2000 aren't in much better shape. The S&P 500 is still above its 200-day moving average and has some support at 1075, but the other indices are in even more dire circumstances. 

    I've been steadfast in my comments lately that it is a mistake to be overly anticipatory about a turn in this market. The action this morning confirms how dangerous it is to try to time the bottom in this market. In my opinion the proper approach is to be on the sidelines and to wait for the technical picture to improve. Sooner or later we will turn back up and have a sustained rally. When that happens there will be plenty of time to put your cash to work. 

    Many folks fear they will miss the first few days of a rally so they end up buying early, and they incur some big losses that will take many days to make up, even when the market does turn. 

    So you can either dig a hole while trying to nail the exact turning point in the market or you stand aside with lots of cash, wait for a better market and then become more aggressive. Hopefully I've made it clear which approach I prefer, and why. 

    We have a very weak open and the market is feeling a bit panicky this morning. I would not be surprised to see a bounce after this big swoosh down this morning but if you play it, make sure you keep your time frame very short. It is going to take a lot of work for this market to produce a better technical picture. 

    Be careful out there. Emotions are running very high and things are likely to be very volatile.

    Gary B. Smith:

     

     

  • Üle öö hoidmine on ikka riskantne värk küll, ei soovita seda kauplejatele. Minu portfell oleks turu avanemisel näidanud ca. -7 %, selle kahjumi asemel täna juba 3% plussi
  • SONSE rühib viimasel ajal vastuvoolu....miks on põhjuseks?!
  • Kõik näevad QQQ breakouti?

    FWIW,

    sB
  • Eesti sotsiaalne kapital kannatab täna küll lausa takumatut langust!
  • Tulen loen kah siis, mis 18. mail börsil toimuma hakkab ;-)
  • to: fun

    Hea point. Ma olen mitu korda näinud, kuidas LHV raskekahurvägi ajas rändab, nüüd järjekordne tõestus sellele, et neil meestel on mingi masin, mida nad teistega jagada ei taha. Senised reisirekordid, mille tunnistajaks olen olnud, on ikka olnud max paaritunnised, aga nüüd on ilmselt saadud asi korralikult tööle...

    :)
  • Hoides liini, ...

    ...täna turg põrkas 4%.
  • niiet LHV oleks hea investeering. ainuke investeerimispank mis kasutab aktsiahindade liikumises ajamasinat....ei, väga hea:)
  • suffiks, ma arvan, et selle masina töökorda saamine seletab ka Kristjani kadestamisväärselt hea esinemise straddle strateegiaga :)

    Oot, peabki vaatama, mis need viimased optsioonid olid, mida ta täna haipis... :D
  • tuleb meelde et kunagi nad said ka kuuajalise liikumise kätte
  • eh, nädala alguses on inimesed ikka erksamad, seda ei märganud keegi, et ma reedese börsipäeva 14. aprilliks ristisin ja alles esmaspäeva hommikul oma vea parandasin, :)
  • NIKKEI lõpetas öösel pea 2% plussis, põhjuseks makronumbrid. GDP kasvas I kv. koguni 5.6%, aastaid napi majanduskasvu käes virelenud Jaapan tundub taas oma majandust jalgadele saavat.

    India kosus pärast eilset -17% juukselõikust täna koguni 8%, arenevatel turgudel on volatiilsus ja närvilsus viimasel ajal päris kõrgeks läinud.
  • Millest on see n2rvilisus tingitud hr maaklerid?Minu investeerimisportfell on langenud ca 10% viimase n2dalaga(k.a NOK) .Kui suur on voimalus ,et suveks n2eme Nasdaq1000-t ja yhe LHV kliendi v2hemaks j22miks?
  • -USA turud on siiski põrkamas, Jaapani tugev esimese kvartali SKP kasv, India aktsiaturu kosumine ning uute majade ehituste tugev number aprillis on turule toeks. S&P 500 futuurid on 7 punkti plussis, Nasdaq 12 punkti plussis.

    -Aprillis alustatud majade ehitusnumber langes 2,1% 1,97 miljonile ühikule (aasta baasil). Ehituslubade  arv kerkis aga 1,2% 2 miljonile. Kuigi majalaenude intressimäär kerkus aprillis 40 baaspunkti, siis oluliselt see aktiivsust kahandanud pole.

    -Kodusisutuskaupu müüv Home Depot (HP)  tõstis oma esimese fiskaalaasta müügikasvu prognoosi 10 protsendilt 12 protsendile. Aprillis lõppenud kvartalis kerkis firma käive 16% 2,4 miljardile dollarile. Aktsia on eelturul 3,3% plussis.

    -AT&T (T) teatas, et siseneb taas mobiilsideturule, firma leping Sprindiga (FON) võimaldab AT&T müüa klientidele mobiilsideteenuseid kasutades Sprint võrke.

    -Moody's tõstis Šveitsi Rootsi ühiskontserni ABB (ABB) reitingus BA2 peale (varasem Ba3), aktsia 4% plussis.

    Rev Shark:

    The bulls, who have been trying to fight the recent market downtrend, have found that logic, hope and power are useless when Mr. Market isn't cooperating. Fighting the trend in hopes that it will soon reverse has yielded little but frustration and deeper losses. 

    On the other hand, if you have stayed patient, focused on properly positioning yourself and avoided anticipating a turn, you are ideally situated. All you have to do now is wait for proper set-ups to form. You don't have to dig yourself out of the hole caused by buying too early and you don't have to deal with the mental baggage of pain and anxiety caused by battling against an uncooperative market. 

    My primary focus in the Trading Diary in recent weeks has been on staying patient and not trying to anticipate a turn in the trend. Over the years, I have found that the quickest way to have more of your portfolio at highs is to move out of the way of downtrends and then wait patiently until the trend is clearly back up. Averaging in on the way down not only leaves you with little capital to work with when the market turns but also tends to take a substantial emotional and psychological toll along the way as losses grow. 

    Even if you miss catching the turning point in the market, you usually will still be much further ahead than the folks who have been averaging down, because you don't have to make-up the losses incurred by trying to catch the bottom. When the market turns the folks who have been buying all the way down suddenly have some nice gains and feel better, but in the vast majority of the cases, they are still much further behind than if they had simply sat on the sidelines and waited for the market to provide solid proof that it is becoming healthier. 

    One of the most difficult aspects of my approach is that it requires a lot of patience. As you sit and watch the market and many of your favorite stocks pull back, the natural inclination is to do something. Most traders, even those with longer-term time frames, want to stay busy, and lower prices in the stocks they like are very hard to resist. However, more often than not, what looks like a bargain becomes even a better bargain before it turns back up. Impatience is generally costly. 

    The easy thing to do in a market like this is buy. You can find lots of good arguments for deploying your capital and lots of market pundits who will support that action. The entire focus of traditional Wall Street is to always make sure you put all your cash into the market as quickly as possible. The idea of investors sitting on idle capital makes the big brokerage firms cringe. 

    And that is why patience will always beat power on Wall Street. The bias toward early action puts the big boys at a major disadvantage because they always end up digging themselves into a hole. It's the patient folks on the sidelines with lots of cash who stand to benefit the most when the market finally makes a meaningful turn in its trend. They can be aggressive, chase the best action and take some good profits when things turn, if they have capital. 

    After yesterday's extremely ugly and depressing action, we have a little bit of a bounce setting up this morning. Overseas markets stabilized overnight and both India and Japan had substantial bounces after huge losses yesterday. The news flow is quiet this morning and traders are contemplating playing for a bounce. Bounces are extremely likely during a downtrend, but it is very important not to mistake a temporary relief rally for a major shift in trend. If you are playing the long side right now, keep your time frame very short. Only after the indices have found support and shown some signs of momentum will it be time to become more aggressive with longer-term long positions. 

    We have housing starts data due at 8:30 a.m. EDT, but overall there isn't much going on out there so far.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Millest hommikune õhuvahe (gap) USAs? Paljud turuosalised olid eilse nõrkuse peale langusele panustanud ja lühema horsiondiga kauplejad panid tõusu peale positsioone kinni.

    Edasine sõltub sellest kui tugev on ostuhuvi - miinuspäev oleks täna negatiivne märk, plussi suurendamine positiivne.
  • to privador

    NASDAQ 1000 peale kindlasti ei lange...
    -10% portfellis pole kindlasti katastroof(oleneb ka selle sisust muidugi-kõik aktsiad ei taastu koos turuga)
    Turud on praegu heitlikud.Müüd praegu -10% ei pea müüma -20%.
    10% on palju lihtsam tagasi saada.Vaata oma portfelli sisu ja otsusta!
    Börsil kasumeid teenides pead olema valmis ka kahjumeid kandma.
  • Huvitavalt kitsa kauplemisvahemikuga päev siiani. Ei mäletagi päeva, mil viimati oleks nii kitsas range olnud. 23 sendi sees vuditakse edasi tagasi. Päeva teises pooles on ilmselt suuremaid liikumisi oodata. Ise arvan, et üles.
  • Kitsas vahemik näitab seda, et ei suuda ei karud ega pullid eelist saada, väga väike käive näitab omakorda seda, et mõlemad pooled passivad.

    Kuid jah, kui ühes suunas minema hakatakse siis ilmselt liikumine võimendub, eriti arvestades seda, et on optsioonide lõppemise nädal.
  • Pakun, et pullidele ei teeks kahju ka Dow ja SP psüholoogiliste tasemete üles murdmine, vastavalt 10000 ja 1900. Esimene just eriti.

    Koridor tehti kah 2 $enti laiemaks :)
  • Überpekk, mõtlesin SP puhul siiski 1100. Naz 1900 ajas mõtte segamini.
  • Valge Maja pikendab Greenspani ametisolekut nelja aasta võrra.

    Kuigi see lepiti juba eelmine aasta kokku, siis nüüd sellele ametlik vorm, Turg tegi esimese reaktsioonina väikse jõnksu selle peale allapoole.
  • Kuna muid uudiseid on vähe, siis kujuneb tänasest päeva teise poole liikumisest tegelikult kerge usalduhääletus Greenspanile.

    Kui kõik mõtleksid nii nagu mina (et Mr. G mängib tikkudega bensiinijaamas), siis tuleks ilmselt tugev müügisurve, kuid kindlasti enamus mõtleb teisiti ja paljud eelmise aasta tõusuga teeninud tänavad just teda.
  • Mitmed turuosalised on viimast paari kuud pidanud väga keeruliseks kauplemise koha pealt - turg on olnud väga heitlik ja enamus strateegiaid ei tööta. Üks kommentaator realmoney.comis kirjutas nii:

    Alan Farley
    It's the Pits in the Ppits
    5/18/04 3:40 PM ET

    OK drum roll please. I nominate the last two weeks as the worst trading environment so far in the 21st century. The only trades working these days are 12 to 15 cent scalps and 30-cent day trades. Admittedly the other working trade is picking a direction using technical analysis, and then taking a position in the other direction. The perfect trade indeed! About a 100% win rate right now!

  • EELN oleks saanud kiirelt kenasti teenida, seekord ei läinud õnneks :(
  • Kes pennystock kaupleb, mida arvate AMEX:IAO , eilne t6us 96%, sisenesin $0.25
    http://www.investcom.com/us/mpgamex.htm
    Prognoosin tanaseks IAO jaoks suuremat t6usu.

    AAC on langenud $0.72, peagi paistab hea ostukoht olema.

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