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Börsipäev 10. juuni- ees pikk nädalavahetus

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  • -USA turud on avanemas kerges plussis, Nasdaqi futuurid on 7 punkti ja S&P 500 futuurid 3,4 punkti plussis. Turgu on toetamas Fedexi kõrgendatud kasumiprognoos ja Procter & Gamble kinnitus analüütikute kõrgendatud kasumiootustele. Kuna reedel on USA  turud suletud, siis pika nädalavahetuse tõttu täna liigseid riske ei võeta ning on oodata vaikset kauplemispäeva.

    -Nädalaga kerkis töötu abiraha taotluste arv 12 000 võrra 352 000 taotluseni, mis on seitsme nädala kõrgeim näitaja. Analüütikud ootasid taotluste arvu vähenemist 336 000 näitajani.

    -Bank of England tõstis intressimäära sihti 4,5 protsendile. Peamiseks mureks on kallinevad kinnisvarahinnad ning inflatsiooniline surve. Kaheksa kuuga on keskpank intressimäära kergitanud neljal korral 0,25%  võrra. See peaks andma aimu sellest, milline stsenaarium on ees ootamas USA ja euroala.

    -FedEx (FDX) teatas, et tõstab oma neljanda kvartali prognoose, firma loodab aktsia kohta teenida 1,36 dollarit kasumit (varasem prognoos 1,2-1,3 dollarit).

    Rev Shark:

    Low volume is an indication of uncertainty. That doesn't mean we can't make sizable moves. In fact, we often see some big moves in light-volume environments as program trading and big funds push the market around. 

    The problem with light volume is that one day's big promising move can be completely reversed in the blink of an eye for no discernable reason. We saw a perfect example of that yesterday. On Tuesday the bulls were sounding extremely confident and coming up with a number of reasons why the low volume was not an important consideration. This market was going higher and low volume was just a nitpicky thing to worry about. 

    Those bullish arguments looked downright silly yesterday as we sold off on very negative breadth and on increased volume. The bullish arguments evaporated and the bears started doing the same things the bulls were doing the day before. 

    The bottom line is that as long as volume stays light we can't have any great certainty and we have to stay patient. It simply is wishful thinking to be confident in which way this market is headed. Forget interest rates, Iraq, valuations and all of the other arguments -- none of them matter until the market "shows us the money" in the form of better volume. 

    We read all sorts of compelling stories from stock market gurus about why the market is going to follow a certain path. The logic will be sound and the conclusions will seem irrefutable. But when all is said and done, the market is nothing more than an exercise in supply and demand. When buyers want in we will go up and our best clue as to what market participants are thinking, feeling and doing is found in volume. 

    So although volume is light and providing few clues, we stay patient, protect our capital and prepare ourselves emotionally to act with fury when the time is right. The current environment is trying, but the one great certainty in the market is change. Calm, cool patience coupled with continued change will produce substantial rewards. 

    One development I found very troubling is the technical condition of the semiconductor and biotechnology sectors. These are the groups that tend to lead the Nasdaq and they are in very poor technical shape at the moment. Unless they improve, the Nasdaq is going to have a very tough time moving up. 

    We have a slightly higher open shaping up but things look rather muddled overall. Overseas markets were mixed. The Bank of England raised interest rates a quarter-point for the second month in a row. That may help put the focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of the June. 

    The news is slow and with the long weekend we are very likely to have another low-volume day. Patience my friends. This too shall end.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Radioktiivsetele investoritele infoks niipalju, et GLBT on taas ellu ärganud. Raamatupidamisprobleemid lahendati ning lisaks saadi arvestatav summa lisafinantseeringut.Mine hullu tea, liigub ehk taas 0,2 peale.
  • Cramer Realmoney's üsna õigete mõtetega, vaid see tähelepanek, et pika nädalavahetuse müügisurve oli minu meelest juba eile ära, seega täna ei pruugi see nii märgatav olla.

    Can you bank on the bad guys? Are the terrorists that predictable? Can't you almost count on them and their mayhem over a three-day weekend when there are only a couple of more weekends before the U.S.' name comes off the Iraq door?

    Don't get me wrong, I hate the bad guys as much as anyone. Maybe more. But I would be foolish not to notice a pattern. Take last Friday, when we had that terrific Goldilocks (just right) employment number. We should have been up huge. However, by midafternoon, sellers -- more like profit-takers -- came out of the woodwork to sell. They wrecked the close. They figured, incorrectly, last weekend, that the Islamic supremacists and the Baathists would strike, causing the futures to open down big Monday so they could scoop up things on the cheap. Didn't happen; we rallied.


    Today, we have none of the good news that we had last Friday. And we are staring at a three-day weekend.

    I'm betting that the profit-takers will come back and that that a better -- and lower -- opportunity to buy awaits.

  • Naftahind taas üle $38 taseme, selle olulise taseme murdmine võib tuua ka edasise tõusu - aktsiatele mõjuks see negatiivselt.
  • Nokia: Feedback from NSM call

    National Semi indicates during its conference call that orders from Nokia for the qtr turned out to be fine. Have seen NOK shares tick up since these comments, as NSM comments could be interpreted to mean that Nokia market share losses have been overblown. Of course, worth keeping in mind that NOK could be reducing orders at other suppliers.

  • Ronald Reagani mälestuseks avaldasid oma mõtteid Realmoney.com autorid.

    Loe siin pikemalt.

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