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Börsipäev 29. juuni - homme tõusevad intressid

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eilse müügisurve järel on täna turud taas plussis alustamas, suund ja turuosaliste käitumine homse FEDi istungi eel on üsna prognoosimatud.

    Eilne järelturg ja tänane hommik on olnud üsna uudistevaene ja mingit olulist mõju laekunud teadetel turule ei ole. Analüütikute kommentaaride kohaselt on laekuvate kasumihoiatuste arv tähelepanuväärselt madal.

    Suurimaid kinnisvaralaeunude andjaid Washington Mutual (WM) kärpis oma aastaprognoose seoses laenumahtude kahanemise ja laenumarginaalide vähenemisega: konsensuse oodatud EPS 4.05 USD asemel näeb ettevõtte juhtkond nüüd kõigest 3.00-3.60 USD EPS. Aktsia on eelturul langenud üle -11%.

    Prognoose kergitas Gibraltor Steel (ROCK), aktsia eelturul +4,29%.

     Rev Shark:

    "If you're not a risk taker, you should get the hell out of business." 

    -- Ray Kroc, founder of McDonald's 

    Market participants have been staying cautious in front of the FOMC interest rate decision and second-quarter earnings reports. Despite the belief that there is widespread bullishness in the market, buyers are not acting with great abandon even though they have had good excuses to do so, such as the early handoff of control in Iraq and falling oil prices. 

    Although the major indices reversed hard following a positive open, there were some interesting pockets of buying. Internet stocks such as Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq), Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq), eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq), Netflix (NFLX:Nasdaq), Overstock.com (OSTK:Nasdaq), Mama.com (MAMA:Nasdaq), etc. attracted aggressive buyers. However, weakness in semiconductors and biotechnology more than offset the strong speculative action. 

    So we have some areas of aggressive risk-taking on one hand, but a high level of cautiousness in other areas of the market. Traders were frustrated for weeks as the market did little, so it isn't a big surprise to see the momentum boys stay active when a group like Internet stocks is running. They are hungry for more interesting action, and that means they are going to jump on Taser (TASR:Nasdaq) in the morning in the hopes that their brethren will join in once again. 

    Yesterday's intraday reversal, while not positive, didn't do enough technical damage to kill the recent breakout. The bulls are still in a position to work things higher, but there are some worrisome developments out there. Foremost remains the semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) remains in a downtrend that commenced in January. At minimum, the group needs to move back over its 200-day simple moving average in order to lend support to the bulls. It is going to be very tough for the Nasdaq to really fly if this group does not join the party. 

    The next major catalyst for the market is the FOMC interest rate decision, which is due out tomorrow afternoon at 2:15 p.m. EDT. A 0.25% interest rate hike is widely anticipated. Anything other than that really will be a surprise, but the accompanying statement always holds the prospect of something that may move the market. 

    Although few are expecting the FOMC to do anything than what has already been well telegraphed, market participants are wary about getting in front of this news. Perhaps just the idea that rate hikes are starting is enough to keep the bulls in check. 

    We have a slightly positive open shaping up. Overseas markets were mixed and both oil and gold are trading down. I see quite a few analyst downgrades on the wires so far this morning, most of which are based on "valuation" concerns. 

    We have consumer sentiment numbers due later in the day, but the news schedule is slow until the FOMC hits tomorrow. It is promising to be another tricky day of trading. 

    Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider MAMA to be a small-cap stock. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices. 

    Long MAMA

  • Huvitav mida räägivad praegu Greenspan ja sõbrad?

    Käimas on praegu FEDi kahepäevase istungi esimene päev, mis kulmineerub kolmapäeval kell 21.15 otsusega intressimäärade suhtes.

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