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Börsipäev 1. juuli - peale FEDi ja enne juuni tööjõuraportit & tulemuste hooaega

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • USA turud on futuuride põhjal ennustades avanemas ülinapis miinuses samal ajal kui Euroopa on kordamas ookeantitaguste turgude eilset tõusu.

    Eilsel järelturul ja täna enne turgu olulisi tulemusi laekunud ega kasumihoiatusi antud ei ole. Endiselt on kasumihoiatuste hulk enne järgmise nädala alguses hoo sisse saavat tulemuste hooaega väike.

    Töötu abiraha esmataotlejate arv kasvas statistiliselt tähtsusetu 1000 võrra 351 000 tasemele, see ei mõjuta homse juuni tööjõuraportiga seotud ootusi - loodetakse 250 000 uue töökoha loomist juunis.

    Deutsche Bank andis Nokia (NOK) aktsiale ostusoovituse hinnasihiga 14 EUR (ca 17 USD), aktsia eelturul +2,13%. Nokia II kvartali tulemused laekuvad juba 15. juulil ja sellele eelnev volatiilusus pakub kuhjaga kauplemisvõimalusi.

     Rev Shark:

    There are those of us who are always about to live. We are waiting until things change, until there is more time, until we are less tired, until we get a promotion, until we settle down -- until, until, until. It always seems as if there is some major event that must occur in our lives before we begin living. 

    --George Sheehan 

    The FOMC interest decision is made, the Russell rebalancing is done and the quarter-end window dressing is now over. The major events are finished and the drivers for artificial buying have come to an end. The bulls will now need to do some real work to prove themselves. The wind is at their backs, but it is going to require some real effort and genuine buying if they are going to produce a meaningful rally. Procrastination at this juncture may prove to be costly. 

    There are a number of positives for the bulls right now. The foremost is a healthy-looking technical picture. The Nasdaq has managed to bust the downtrend line that has been in place since January with some conviction. That downtrend line and the prior June high now serve as support. The chip stocks have turned up and are on the verge of moving back over the 200-day simple moving average. It's not there yet, but it's close. If that group starts running, the Nasdaq should be in very good shape. 

    The senior indices, the Dow and S&P 500, have been stuck in a trading range for three weeks now. That base provides a very solid foundation for a move if momentum picks up. The S&P needs to close over 1145 or so and the DJIA needs a move 10,490 to begin a breakout move. If such a move came on increased volume, the bulls would be sitting very pretty. 

    The only real technical negative right now is a bit too much bullishness. The Investors Intelligence survey indicates a four-month high in positive sentiment, and a number of other measures indicate a high level of optimism. A high level of bullishness doesn't mean the market can't run -- it did exactly that for most of last year -- but it does present the problem of a potential lack of buying power. 

    So overall the technical picture is looking healthy. The big question now is whether earnings season can provide the juice to get things running. In the first quarter this year, we had generally good reports and guidance, but the market could not manage to rally as it obsessed over the possibility of interest rate hikes. We don't have that same worry this time, but the market can always find a new distraction if it so desires. 

    We also have to consider how economic data may impact the market mood. A number of recent reports, such as Wednesday's Chicago PMI, have been a bit soft. Soft reports were OK while the market worried about the degree of interest rate hikes, but now that the matter is somewhat settled, the bulls need some solid data to work with. We have weekly unemployment claims today and the very important monthly job stats tomorrow that are going to be closely watched. 

    The bulls have the edge and they can even withstand a few days of flat or slightly down action, but when earnings reports start to roll in they cannot afford to procrastinate. They will need to prove themselves or it is going to be a very long and hot summer. 

    In the early going we are sitting close to unchanged. Overseas markets were mostly higher. The Tokyo Nikkei saw a boost due to better manufacturer confidence. Oil is trading down and gold is making a run at the $400 level. The dollar is mixed. 

    Don't forget we have the three-day Fourth of July weekend coming up, and that is likely to thin the ranks of traders and add to volatility over the next two days.

  • "Suur raha" seni veel väga hästi ei käitu - Nasdaq juba protsendijagu miinuses. Kuid oluline on mis turg päeva lõpuks teeb.

    Seni veab allapoole tehnoloogiasektor, aga eks nad ole ka turu keskmisest viimastel nädalatel rohkem tõusnud, seega lihtsalt korrektsioon.
  • Turg on üllatavalt nõrk. Kes teab, iseseisvuspäev USA-s tulemas ja hoitakse ehk igaks juhuks terroriaktide kartuses kõrvale, et siis teisipäeval taas rallida ja siis juba kõvasti, juuli on ju tavaliselt hea kuu olnud.
  • Pooljuhid täna löögi all.

    10:49 Semiconductor Index -SOX- takes a hit-- Technical --

    The index staged a short term range breakout yesterday (also above Jan/April trendline) and probed resistance at its 200 day sma of 488 (yesterday's high 487.91). Today it has pushed firmly lower with TER -5.3%, ALTR -4.7%, XLNX -4.5%, NSM -3.8%, LSCC -3.8%, NVLS -3.6%, LLTC -3%, BRCM -3% pacing the way. The rejection at its 200 day has led to a move back below yesterday's breakout point with its 50 day sma and the bottom of the recent range providing support at 468 and 466 respectively (SOX at 469.79, today's low 469.10). The Semi HOLDRs (SMH -3%) failed near its 200 day exp avg and at the Jan/Apr trendline yesterday. Support at 36.55/36.50 has held thus far today but need a stabilization back above its 20/50 day averages (37.10/37.12) to improve the short term pattern.
  • Praegu tundub pigem olevat asi ostjate puuduses - ilmselt oodati, et peale FEDi tulevad suured fondid pigem ostma, kuid praegu on nad pigem müügipoole peal olnud.

    Ja kui pooljuhid olid viimastel nädalatel veduriks ülespoole, siis jah, täna tirivad alla. Pooljuhtide indeksi graafik ($SOX või SMH) on ka aasta algusest selges langustrendis.
  • Turg ei suuda endiselt kuidagi jalgealust leida, jälgige indeksite olulisi toetustasemeid:

    Nasdaq 2000
    Dow Jones 10300
    S&P 500 1125
  • Pooljuhtide kohta veel: SMH toetus on ca $35.7 juures, sinna veel 60 senti ruumi.
  • NAZ püsib praegu toetuse peal, 2013 kandis, suht oluline tase
  • See, mis tundus päeva alguses utoopiline on peaaegu tõeks saamas..! Nasdaq lähenebki 2000-le punktile. Hetkel veel siiski 2010 ja -1.85%. Kuid nagu Kristjan ütles, annab päevalõpp homsest rohkem aimu!
  • Dow ja S&P käisid juba allpool ülalmainitud olulisi tasemeid, väga oluline, et päeva lõpuks neist madalamal ei oldaks.

    Aga ... homme tähtis tööjõutururaport - tänane suur müük vähendab oluliselt ootusi selle raporti suhtes, seega üsna palju sõltub alles pärast homset raportit.
  • Mis kell raport homme teatavaks tehakse?
  • 8.30 e. 15.30 meie aja järgi, enne börsipäeva seega. Börsipäeva algus peaks üsna volatiilne tulema ja päeva mõjutab ka see, et enne pikendatud nädalavahetust (esmaspäeval börsid suletud) suletakse ilmselt positsioone.
  • tööjõuturu raporti kohta ka Wall Street Journali Ahead of the tape kolumnist:

    Put a million monkeys in front of a million spreadsheets, and one of them probably will get today's jobs number right. Unfortunately, the pool of Wall Street economists is considerably smaller.

    Estimates on how many jobs the economy added in June range widely, in part because nobody knows how much Ronald Reagan's funeral -- which closed many businesses during the week that the Bureau of Labor Statistics tallies nonfarm payrolls -- may have distorted things. On one hand there is Wells Fargo, with an estimate of 185,000 new jobs; on the other there is Citigroup, which sees 300,000 jobs.

    Those estimates were made last week. Since then, the jobs picture has only become more confusing.

    According to the Conference Board's consumer-confidence index, released Tuesday, the number of households claiming that jobs are "hard to get" fell 13%, while the number of those saying jobs are "plentiful" rose 8%. On the other side of the ledger, the Labor Department said yesterday that jobless claims for the week ended June 26 came in higher than expected, and claims for the previous week were nudged higher. In its purchasing managers' index release, the Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing job growth has slowed. All of this could make for an interesting morning.

    Investors trying to get a handle on how quickly rates will head higher may want to spend less time dwelling on the unemployment report's headline number and instead take a gander at what is going on with hours worked.

    In April and May the hours-worked index rose at a 3.8% annualized rate over the first quarter, points out Goldman Sachs economist Bill Dudley. At the same time, recent reports suggest second-quarter economic growth moderated, prompting economists to begin penciling in lower forecasts for gross domestic product.

    The suggestion is that fancy management systems haven't been doing much heavy lifting lately -- it is the work force that has been shouldering the economy. Put another way, productivity growth has slowed, and when productivity growth slows, labor costs rise.

    When it raised its federal-funds target rate Wednesday, the Fed said inflation readings have been elevated, but suggested this mostly was due to "transitory factors," probably referring to how raw-materials costs have fed through into prices.

    If wage pressures start growing, however, that could lead to the sort of inflation that isn't nearly so transitory, forcing the Fed to act in a less-than-measured fashion.
  • Kes see Deutche Bank on? Kas sama kontor, kes SCOX selle tipus $50mil sisse pani? Ma ei võtaks neid liiga tõsiselt. Samas avaldan neile tänu minu rikkamaks tegemise puhul.
  • Mamma.com: Mark Cuban discloses no longer owns MAMA shares

    In a filing with the SEC, Mark Cuban disclosed a 0% stake in MAMA stock. Recall that stock found interest earlier in the year on news that Cuban had acquired 600,000 shares of MAMA stock. Moreover, on April 6, Cuban told the WSJ that he hadn't sold a share of the stock after a probe into trading of the stock was disclosed: "The company isn't under investigation, the trading activity is. The SEC should investigate "Day Traders Gone Wild." I only care about the operations of the company, and those are not under investigation. I haven't sold a share of the stock and don't plan to."
  • Cuban minu teada vist ostis kuskil 9$ juures,myys siis ilmselt 13$ peal kuskil v2ikestes kogustes.Aga mis nii viga rikastada,kui su oma nimi viib aktsiat tousule..
  • Ma ei tea mis tal nii väga sellega rikastuda oli, mees otsustas hiljuti $500 000 000 panna High Definition TV projekti alla, plus mehel on paar spordiklubi sealmail, mis mängivad nii meile arusaadavaid kui ka arusaamatuid mänge absoluutsel tipptasemel. Broadcast.com'st kolis mees välja 10-kohalise dollar amountiga, nagu ma õieti mäletan.
  • Cuban on lahe sell, olen alati ka tema omanduses olevale NBA Dallas Mavsile poialt hoidnud, paraku on meeskonna komplekteerimine soovida jatnud.

    Mees ei taha olla sitem kui Donalt Trump - sugisel tuleb ka tema valja oma TVshowga, kus voitja saab miljonariks.

    Elu ei tohi igavalt elada:)

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