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Börsipäev 26. juuli

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  • Nõrgenenud dollari ja üle 41 dollarilise nafta hinna taustal on USA turud avanemas positiivselt. Nasdaqilt oodatakse avanemist 0.5% kõrgemalt ja Dow Jones ning S&P500 alustavad päeva vastavalt 0.3% ja 0.25% plussis.

    Nädalavahetusel sai FDA-lt heakskiidu kolesterooliravim Vytorin. Eelturul on uudise peale tõusus Schering-Plough (SGP +3.74%) ja Merck (MRK +1.86%). Heakskiitu oodati siiski juba pikka aega ning päeva edenedes võib tulla ka mõningane news sell-off.

    Tervishoiusektorit on eelmise uudise jätkuks varjutamas Pfizeri (PFE) reitingu langetamine “market performile” “outperformilt.” Langetajaks Friedman Billings ja uueks hinnasihiks $34. Põhjuseks konkurentsi suurenemine kolesterooliturul (SGP/MRK) ja vananev tooteliin. Aktsia eelturul –0.77%.

    Microsoft (MSFT) sai Barron’si ajakirjanikelt positiivseid kommentaare, kui viimased teatasid, et tegemist on siiski veel kasvuaktsiaga. Lisaks kaupleb aktsia oma ajalooliselt madalaimatel tasemetel. Tarkvaragigant eelturul 0.86% võrra plussis. Toetust võivad saada ka teised tarkvara firmad ning sector üldiselt, kuna viimane on pidanud taluma korralikku matkimist viimasel ajal.

    Sarnaselt Microsoftile on investoreid rõõmustamas ka Intel (INTC), mis teatab, et kavatseb aktsionäridele välja maksta osa oma $17 miljardi suurusest rahatagavaraks. Firma kaalub alternatiive. Aktsia eelturul 0.44% kõrgemal.

    Nokia (NOK) sai reitingutõstmise osaliseks Piper Jaffray poolt. Uueks hinnanguks sai “Outperform” ja hinnasihiks $16. Usutakse, et firma suudab parandada oma tooteportfelli ning kolmas kvartal peaks lõpetama telefonide marginaalide languse. Aktsia eelturul 0.6% plussis. 

    Rev Shark:

    "The men whom I have seen succeed best in life always have been cheerful and hopeful men; who went about their business with a smile on their faces; and took the changes and chances of this mortal life like men; facing rough and smooth alike as it came."

    -- Charles Kingsley

    The great thing about the stock market is the inevitability of change. No matter how good or bad things are at the moment, you can rest assured that they will be different in the not-too-distant future. It is because of this cycle of constant transition from euphoria to despair and back again that the market offers such great rewards to the astute investor.

    Most everyone recognizes the cyclical nature of the stock market but like so many other things in life it is timing that separates great investors from mediocre ones. The market doles out its harshest abuse for those who correctly see the big market picture but fail to accurately time it. Being right is as good as being wrong if you arrive too early or too late.

    Despite timing being so key to market performance, market participants are drawn, like a moth drawn to a flame, to the sport of predicting that a change is near. Over and over again we see the pundits declare that the current trend has gone too far and is on the verge of a reversal. They urge us to hurry and jump in or risk missing the big shift that is likely to occur at any moment.

    Instead of waiting for clear evidence that the trend is actually changing, we rush in and deploy our capital in the hopes that market prognosticators have acquired a new HDTV crystal ball and now can see the future clearly. Aside from change, another great certainty of the market is that the commentators will be right just enough to tempt you but wrong often enough to cost you.

    So what are we to do? How do we contend with an ever-changing market and the difficulty of prediction? My suggestion is to not anticipate change but to wait for it to occur and then fully embrace it. Rather than constantly speculate about how, why and when the prevailing trend will change, deal with what is in front of you.

    The great advantage that small investors have is the ability to move quickly. They don't need to anticipate like some elephantine fund that must move billions of dollars but also is required to stay heavily invested at all times. We are taught that we should invest our money in the same way Fidelity or Vanguard invests theirs. That is the thinking that dooms most individual investors to mediocre returns.

    The market is obviously in a very strong downtrend right now. Respect that fact. There is no reason to rush in and load up on stocks that are struggling. Bargains have a way of becoming even better bargains.

    When the market undergoes a change in trend there will be plenty of time to buy your favorites. It doesn't matter that you missed buying the low tick; it is far more important that you protected your capital and were in position to capitalize on things when the inevitable change occurred. Profitable rallies last weeks or even months. So what if you aren't fully loaded at the moment of the exact turn? That sort of timing isn't worth the risk.

    After last weeks dismal performance we have a minor Monday morning bounce shaping up. News wires are fairly quiet. We have a huge amount of earnings reports due again this week but most of the big hitters are now out of the way and the bottom of the line-up is unlikely to have any huge impact.

    Stay patient, be careful and above all else protect that capital. Change will occur and your job is to make sure you are in position to make the most of it.

     

     

  • Gapping Up

    ASKJ +9.4% (extends advertising relationship with Google), NTMD +6.7% (momentum continues; stock nearly tripled last week), KG +37% (to be bought by MYL), TLAB +4% (Merrill upgrade)... Under $3: DFIB +31% (reports continued strength of AED sales to corporate America).

    Gapping Down

    ANDW -24% (reports, guides SepQ lower, Oppenheimer downgrade), MYL -11% (to acquire KG; reports JunQ), CHKP -7%(disappointment in reaction to margins, license revs; guides revs slightly below consensus), IMCL -7% (Smith Barney downgrade), CECO -4.4% (faces new probe - Financial Times).
  • Negatiivsus on turul ka uue nädala alguses platsis, indeksid pöörasid pärast kergelt päeva alguse plussi kohe allapoole.

    Vaadake S&P ja Dow Jonesi selle aasta põhju (vastavalt 1076 ja 9852 punkti), need peaksid turule mõningast toetust pakkuma.
  • natukene infot väikeste biotechide kohta, mis kauplevad allpool cashi taset või selle lähedal:
    VPHM, $40M MV, $108M cash and $130M debt
    CRGN, $255M, $407M cash, $240M debt
    ARNA, $108M, $145M cash
    AVGN, $70M, $87M cash
    CVTX, $430M, $490M cash, $375M debt
    INCY, $450M, $500M cash, $417M debt
    DRRX, $72M, $71M cash, $60M debt
    PRCS, $130M, $125M cash
    CRXA, $205M, $178M cash, $100M debt
    GENE, $275M, $225M cash, $125M debt
    IDEV, $265M, $208M cash, $72M debt
    NRGN, $215M, $175M cash
  • Vahepeal on NFI kõvasti liikund ...

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