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Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 29. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Gapping Up

    INSP +23% (beats handily, guides above consensus; Piper upgrade), SONSE +26% (reports Q1, Janney and Raymond James upgrades), ALDA +19% (reports Q2), SOHU +16% (relief rally after fears that guidance would be slashed; up in sympathy: SINA +7%, NTES +5%), ONNN +15% (beats by $0.03), ACLS +15% (beats, guides higher), NANO +13% (beats by $0.06, beats on revs), CNCT +10% (beats handily, guides higher), JDSU +9.3% (reports in-line), SHPGY +9% (beats by $0.14), GIVN +8% (beats by $0.02; Wells Fargo upgrade), EDS +6% (positive WSJ article as a turnaround candidate), SBL +6% (beats by $0.02, beats on revs), ZEUS +6% (reports JunQ), LVLT +5% (Needham upgrade).

    Gapping Down

    TARO -35% (misses Q2 by a wide margin), ESRX -12% (reports in-line; announces allegations of violation from states), PTIX -37% (reports Q2, which leads ThinkEquity to downgrade), ESST -16% (misses, guides lower), WFMI -8% (reports JunQ), ZMH -7% (reports, guides Q3 lower; Pru downgrade), CCE -7% (misses by $0.13, guides below consensus; CSFB downgrade), QSFT -6% (reports JunQ in-line), RNWK -5.9% (beats, guides), MVL -5.5% (beats, guides below consensus), CMX -5.3% (in sympathy with ESRX), GM -2.1% (Goldman and Lehman downgrades).

  • üks mõte:

    "Since 1964, the S&P 500 has never seen negative returns between the end of May and the end of September in an election year. The average gain is 4.6% and the S&P 500 is currently down 3% from the end of May."
  • USA turud on avanemas plussis, taas on kõik tähelepanu pööratud nafta hinnale, mis eilsest 14 aasta tipust on veidi tagasi andnud. Exxon Mobil (XOM) head kvartalitulemused annavad lootust, et vähemalt suuri ettevõtteid koondav Dow keskmine on kolmandat päeva plussis.

    Nädalaga kerkis töötu abiraha taotluste arv 4000 võrra , mis oli ootustele vastav number.

    Tehnoloogiasektoris on tähelepanu saanud fiiberoptiliste kaablite valmistaja JDS Uniphase (JDSU). Eelturul kümnendiku tõusnud aktsiat toetab  oodatust väiksem kahjum.

    Rev Shark:

    Over the last few days of trading we have seen a sharp increase in the level of volatility. We have swung from what looked like the end of the recent downtrend to a run at new yearly lows and back up again.

    Volatility is generally a product of uncertainty and uncertainty is caused by a change in the level of hope. The more hopeful market participants are that things are changing, the more uncertain the current market trend will become and the greater the volatility.

    That is a very important concept to contemplate, as it helps explains why the market seems to be such a contrary beast. It is at the time when folks are becoming more hopeful that the market tends to become increasingly unpredictable.

    We have a great illustration of that right now. The high level of hope is reflected in the non-stop talk about whether a bottom is near. Every market commentator out there is talking about the likelihood of a bounce at this point. Traders are grappling with the direction of the overall market but have enough confidence to produce some very big point moves in stocks with good earnings news such as Kronos (KRON:Nasdaq), Websense (WBSN:Nasdaq), Garmin (GRMN:Nasdaq), SFBC International (SFCC:Nasdaq), Forward Air Corp. (FWRD:Nasdaq) and FMC Corp (FMC:NYSE).

    Hope, however, is a very fragile thing and it doesn't take much for it to drop quickly. All it took yesterday was an increase in crude oil prices to send us down into the depth of despair once again. As hope bubbles up and recedes we will see greater volatility, but that also is a sign that a stronger move is coming. Eventually hope gives way to decisiveness. It is either rewarded or dashed and when that happens the market will move with conviction.

    The increased volatility is a definite sign that hope is alive and well. Anyone who has participated in the market for a while knows that Mr. Market does not tend to be a big fan of hope. When hope is running high Mr. Market is usually at his contrary best. His ultimate goal it to frustrate and his job is made easier when hopefulness is the primary emotion in the market.

    We have some follow-through to yesterday afternoon's strong bounce. The Russian oil crisis has abated to some extent and crude is trading slightly lower, there were some solid earnings reports last night and European markets are trading strongly higher. That is helping to boost us at the open but if you aren't at least a little distrustful of early strength, you haven't been paying much attention lately.

    While volatility is high, fast action is the name of the game. If you are going to play, make sure your trading button is well-oiled and ready for action.

    Gary B. Smith:

     

  • Rev Shark'i kommentaar:
    Today's "gap up and sit there" action, in combination with the choppy moves of the last two days, is starting to produce some interesting individual charts. As I've said many times lately, I don't care about buying the lows; I'm more interested in buying when I think the odds of a good gain are high. I want to see stocks that have stopped going down and are showing signs that a lasting uptrend will start. The first step is to hold above recent lows, and we are starting to see that happen now.

    A lot of market participants seem to struggle with the idea that catching the low tick should not be our ultimate goal. Obviously if you buy the exact bottom tick, you have to make money, so why shouldn't we attempt to do exactly that? The answer is that such a pursuit carries a very high level of risk.

    The less risky approach is to look to jump on trends as they emerge. For example, a couple stocks I've bought recently are Akami Technologies (AKAM:Nasdaq) and MRV Communications (MRVC:Nasdaq). Both have stabilized above recent lows and are now showing signs of upward momentum. The stop-loss points can be set tight, and the risk-to-reward ratios are high.

    My guess is that many of the folks who have been trying to catch the bottom recently are still in negative territory despite the bounce over the last few days. I'm sure some have timed it right, but I'd bet that quite a few didn't.

    Long AKAM, MRVC

  • 13:19 Heavily shorted stocks spiking intraday as traders come off the sidelines, join in rally

    Among the heavily shorted names posting big gains today are NVEC +3.82 (85% of the float is reported as sold short), APPX +3.73 (52% of float), XMSR +0.67 (33% of float) SSYS +3.30 (23% of float), PLMO +3.70 (17% of float), ELAB +2.32 (15% of float)...
  • Kas kõige enam shorditud aktsiad on ka kuskil vabavarana pidevalt nähtaval?
  • Ega tasuta screenimisvõimalust ma neile ei tea, kuid briefing.comis jäi silma üks lugu, mis abi võiks pakkuda.

    Top 20 List of Most Attractive Short-Squeeze Candidates
    The late rally off the lows yesterday (on good volume!) has brought some idled trading accounts off the sidelines. Yesterday's late run was aided by a Merrill Lynch technical call suggesting a short-term buying opportunity. The momentum created by that call has carried over to today, with the subsequent short-covering leading to some sizeable gains in the most "leaned on" stocks (e.g., APPX +4.14, NVEC +3.45, PLMO +3.40). Given that the shorts are on the run today, and momentum players will likely try to keep them on their heels near-term, we thought it would be prudent to update our Top 20 List of Most Attractive Short-Squeeze Candidates.

    Heavily Shorted Stocks

    Stock% of Float ShortFloatMkt Cap ($ mln)YTD Return
    Cal-Maine (CALM)77%6.7258-38.9%
    Taser (TASR)66%21.0898+133.7%
    American Pharma (APPX)60%17.01,862-21.1%
    BioSite (BSTE)52%14.4682+50.3%
    SCO Group (SCOX)50%9.364-75.3%
    NetFlix (NFLX)47%42.41,045-26.0%
    OverStock (OSTK)43%6.2632+73.5%
    NVE Corp (NVEC)42%4.3133-42.3%
    Air T (AIRT)42%0.932+135.7%
    XM Satellite Radio (XMSR)39%118.74773-5.3%
    Krispy Kreme (KKD)39%54.91152-49.0%
    TravelZoo (TZOO)36%1.8421+216.3%
    Multimedia Games (MGAM)36%25.8664+15.9%
    Jos A Bank Clothiers (JOSB)35%10.2324+31.5%
    LeapFrog (LF)35%26.71,135-28.2%
    Orbitz (ORBZ)32%12.8697-26.1%
    Panera Bread (PNRA)32%28.31,115-6.6%
    Priceline.com (PCLN)32%21.3869+28.7%
    Industrial Svcs (IDSA)29%1.233.2+380.7%
    Beazer Homes (BZH)28%12.41,221-8.5%
  • Kas keegi oskab midagi CALM kohta tarka rääkida
  • Raisio teatas 2Q majandustulemused. Käive pole hetkel oluline, kuna see sisaldab kahe kuu jagu Chemicalsi ja plaanis on veel mitu üksust müüa. Hea uudis on, et Life Science käive kasvas 65%. Samuti teatas ettevõte väikesest kasumist ja tegevjuht lubas kindlalt, et 2004 lõpetatakse kasumiga. Vaatamat mitu aastat kestnud stabiilselekahjumile on ettevõtte rahavood olnud stabiilselt positiivsed, see on põhjustanud olukorra, kus ettevõttel on 296 miljonit eurot raha ja turuväärtus on 302 miljonit. Analüütikute hinnangul suudab ettevõte teenida 2005a 5 eurosenti aktsia kohta kasumit. 2,5-2,6€ hinnasiht täiesti reaalne, hetkel aktsia 1,67% plussis HEXil.
  • to SideKick.
    Kuidas hindad Biotie Therapies Oyj tulevikku(arvestades viimast uudist ettevõtte kohta). Kas see oleks mõjuv põhjus aktsiat hoida?
  • kahjuks pole ma Biotied väga põhjalikult uurinud aga viimasel ajal on üha positiivsemaid uudiseid kuulda olnud. Võtan mõni nädalavahetus aktsia ette ja vaatan lähemalt ja kirjutan Soome ülevaatesse.
  • to: rick12

    Kõrbesin korralikult CALM'ga, täielikult oma süül. No võibolla natuke ka Mark Cubani süü, kes järsku shortima kukkus :)

    Negatiivne:
    1) Atkins (=low-carb) hakkab feidima, mõnede asjatundjate arvates.
    2) Toote spetsiifikast tingituna on nõudluse kasvu võimalik kiirelt rahuldada.
    3) Munade hind piikis eelmisel aastal.

    Positiivne:
    1) Munade rep kui legit toiduaine on hakanud taastuma.
    2) CALM on suurim munaja USAs.
    3) Atkins võibolla polegi taandumas.
  • Plahvatus Brüsseli tehnoloogiapargis??? Kes teab midagi enamat? Terroristid või õnnetusjuhtum?
  • BRUSSELS, Belgium -- At least 14 people were killed and 100 others injured when a leaking underground natural gas pipeline exploded in southern Belgium, officials said.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/07/30/belgium.gas.blast/index.html
  • USA indekseid ei paista eriti mõjutavat. Is Brussels somewhere near China?
  • Ilmselt somewhere between Iraq and Afghanistan...

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