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Börsipäev 25. august

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • USA turud on avanemas plussis. Juuli kestvuskaupade number oli oodatust tugevam, kestvuskaupade müük kerkis 1,7%, kuid kuna suure osa kasvust andsid lennukite müük, siis järgmistel kuudel ei pruugi see number nii hea olla.

    Venemaal plahvatanud kaks lennukit ei avaldanud suurt mõju Aasia ega Euroopa turgudele. Siiski kahtlustatase plahvatustes terroriste ning see võib turule üldiselt negatiivselt mõjuda.

    Majade ehitaja Toll Brothers (TOL) teatas, et ootab tulude kasvu 30% 2005. fiskaalaastaks. Plaanitakse ehitada 7700-8000 uut maja keskmise hinnaga 600 000 dollarit. Firma juht kinnitas, et nõudlus on tugev ning seda eriti luksuslikema majade osas.

    Motorola (MOT) ja Jaapani mobiilsideoperaator NTT DoCoMo (DCM) teatasid et allkirjastasid lepingu ühiselt 3G mobiilide väljatöötamiseks.

    Nokia (NOK) kohta on turule ilmunud kuulujutud, et firma tuleb lähemate nädalate jooksul turule uue Nokia Communicator`i versiooniga 9300, mis on detsembris välja tuleva telefoni 9500 odavam modifikatsioon. Positiivne uudis, kuna äriklassile suunatud telefoni on oodatud juba kaua.

    Rev Shark:

    As summer winds down we have a lazy, indifferent market where folks are happy to stand aside rather than struggle with the listless action. The market is simply too limp and lethargic to engage us in an interesting fight.

    Complicating matters even more is the uncertain technical health of the major indices. After a very steep selloff over a six-week period we finally managed a bounce. However, volume was lame and now that we have been relieved of some of the oversold pressure we are facing formidable overhead resistance.

    To complicate matters further we are entering the seasonally weakest time of the year, with September the historically worst month of the year for the indices. With that in mind this bounce off the lows is a perfect setup for another leg down. If this little rally shows more signs of fatigue, buyers are likely to turn more defensive and add some selling pressure.

    The market has been obsessed lately with the price of crude oil but we saw that connection uncouple a bit yesterday. Even though crude prices fell rather sharply the market could not generate enough enthusiasm over the matter to do anything significant. The high prices were generally viewed as unsustainable in the short run and that seems to have been anticipated to some extent by the market.

    There is some talk that an upbeat Republican convention next week in New York may help boost the market, which is generally viewed as having a strong bias for President Bush. I'm not too optimist about anything significant at this point mainly because of the likelihood that volume will stay tepid.

    The bottom line right now is that until we see better volume the trading is going to be very tough. Light volume leads to random action, short squeezes and manipulative program trading.

    For now the best course of action is to stick to short time frames and quick trades. This is not an environment in which to build longer-term positions.

    Durable goods data are out and look quite strong, but we are seeing little market reaction so far.

    Good luck and go get 'em.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    DITC +27% (beats by $0.06; guides OctQ revs above consensus; announces Asian orders), CLZR +15% (beats consensus by $0.03), DCLK +8.4% (adds relationship with Microsoft MSN -- Reuters), NGEN +7.8% (awarded patent), SMTC +7.5% (reports JulQ; Legg Mason upgrade), ADEX +7.1% (reports JulQ), NDSN +6.3% (reports JulQ), OTIV +3.5% (receives first orders to support MasterCard PayPass), SINA +3.5% (YHOO-for-SINA rumor back in the market again), TASR +2.2% (jet crashes south of Moscow; pilots had sent a hijack alert, raising suspicion of a terrorist attack)..... Under $3: SIGA +24% (announces receipt of $12 mln in NIH funding), GNBT +17% (receives $1 mln deposit from Sejong).

    Gapping Down

    BBI -33% (stock begins trading ex-special $5/sh dividend; also Viacom may write down Blockbuster's assets - LA Times), SEAC -8% (reports JulQ), HRB -7.3% (reports JulQ), OVTI -7.3% (reports JulQ, guides OctQ below consensus; removed from Focus List at JP Morgan), CNX -7% (cutting Q3 forecast), APPB -5.4% (disappointing Aug comps), SIGM -2% (reports JulQ), MXIM -2% (RBC lowers estimates), GPS -1.2% (Merrill downgrade)... Under $3: ZTEL -9% (CEO leaves to found another co).
  • DJ-30 graafikule saab ka pikemalt langustrendi tõmmata ..



    Ardo
  • Mõnevõrra üllatuslikult on Revlon (REV) hakanud viimasel ajal analüütikute tähelepanu kõitma. Täna hommikul alustab keskmise suurusega SunTrust Robinson Humphrey aktsiat katmist BUY reitingu ning $3.75 hinnasihiga.

    Panen täna õhtul analüüsi huvilistele LHV Pro alla välja,

    sB
  • Üks päris respekteeritud tehnilise analüüsi spetsialist kuulutas 5 min eest, et tema arvates on praeguse põrke tipp käes. Kõik indikaatorid vihjavat pullide väsimisele.

    Isekeskis oleme viimased paar päeva juba samal teemal diskuteerinud. Tehniliselt on näiteks QQQ kohe-kohe järgmiste vastupanude all (eelmistest vastupanudest, milleks olid märtsi ja juuni põhjad, lsuruti läbi)

    FWIW,

    sB
  • S&P 500 on ka vastupanu juures 1106-1110
  • By the way, one of the less than encouraging signs for the bullish case is that the VIX just dropped below 15 for the first time since July 21. That day, July 21, the S&P topped out at the 1116 level prior to collapsing into the close down to the 1090 level.
    Harry Schiller - RM
  • Raisiol täna Capital Markets Day, presentatsioonid siin http://www.raisiogroup.com/asp/empty.asp?P=224&VID=default&SID=648526893114500&A=closeall&S=0&C=25626

    tegevjuht räägin firmaostust nii kindlalt, nagu neil oleks ostetav juba väja valitud, lubab raisio aktsiate tagasiostu ja lisa dividende. CEO presentatsiooni näitab, et ettevõtte book value on 2,35€ (aktsia hetkel 1,85€). Hoia.

    Rene

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