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Börsipäev 9. september

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  • USA aktsiaturud alustasid päeva kerge plussiga. Nokia head uudised ja töötu abiraha taotlejate rekordiline vähenemine aitasid sellele tugevalt kaasa.

    USA töötu abiraha taotlejate arv kukkus nädalaga 44 000 võrra 319 000 peale, mis on suurim langus peale 2001. aasta detsembrit. Oodati näitajat 346 000, kuid olulist pööret majanduses näitaja siiski ei kirjelda, sest peamiseks madala näitaja põhjuseks on Florida orkaanid, mis ei võimaldanud inimestel tavapäraste tegevustega tegeleda.

    Nokia aktsia alustas ka USA- s pea 10% tõusuga, Ettevõte andis seekord positiivse kasumihoiatuse tõstes kasumiprognoosi aktsia kohta 8-10 eurosendilt 11-13 sendile.

    Eile järelturul avaldas oma kvartali vahearuande Texas Instruments (TXN), mis oli oodatust positiivsem ning aktsia on turul 5% plussis. Firma kvartalikasum peaks ületama prognoose, samal ajal võib firma oma käibeprognoosiga veidi hätta jääda.

    Rev Shark:

    In the animal world there is great respect for the seasons. The possibility that this time things will be different than they were previously is never contemplated by the less evolved who inhabit our planet. Animals instinctively recognize that as the summer becomes fall, certain events become inevitable.

    The stock market does not have the same cyclical certainty as nature, but there are tendencies that do occur with regularity. One of them is that September is generally a poor month for the stock market. Historically, since 1950 the S&P 500 has lost 0.5% on average in the month of September.

    Contemplative market participants can't help but wonder what causes this sort of seasonality. What is it about September that has produced statistically significant poor results over a long period of time?

    I have never heard a good explanation for seasonality in the market. The most logical theory is that it is simply a function of supply and demand and for some reason there tends to be less of an appetite for buying in September.

    Many folks consider September to be the beginning of a new year. Summer vacations are over, we are returning to work and school and it is time to focus on more serious things. We review our portfolio and start thinking about how we want to position ourselves for the positive seasonality at the end of the year.

    Unfortunately, the stock market makes things difficult by only having a weak inclination toward seasonality. There are enough exceptions to the rule to make it very dangerous to plan on things working out like they have in the past. Is this such a time when we might expect the natural rhythm to be out of step?

    My inclination is to be very respectful of the possibility of a weak September primarily because of the technical and fundamental set-up we have at this time. The major indices have all managed a nice bounce since mid-August, but it came on low volume, and now there is substantial overhead resistance to deal with. The three-week long bounce is lacking the sort of vigor that supports a continued move higher.

    In addition to the difficult technical picture we continue to have a sputtering economic recovery and warnings from bellwethers such as Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Coca-Cola (KO:NYSE). Technology stocks are not acting well and the market needs some strong leadership if it is going to overcome technical resistance.

    Some folks are hopeful that the election cycle will undermine poor seasonality. However, Sen. Kerry is going to keep repeating his message about how poor the economy is. Even if President Bush can combat those assertions, the negativity is likely to affect some folks in the short term.

    Nokia (NOK:NYSE) and Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) have some reassuring guidance this morning and that is giving us a slight boost. Overseas markets were mostly weaker, oil is up a tad and the dollar is mixed. Weekly jobless claims and wholesale inventories are on the economic calendar.

    Thanks to Cody for filling in while I waited for my power to be restored. Unfortunately, Hurricane Ivan is now a very ugly category 5 storm and heading straight for us. If I disappear again, you know why.

    Gary B. Smith:

     

  • Gapping Up

    NOK +7% (boosts guidance on strong volume growth) Up in sympathy: RFMD +8.6%, SWKS +5.8%, TQNT +4.2%, MOT +3.6%, ERICY +2%, PMCS +2%, VTSS +2%.... TXN +3.0% (guidance mixed, but Street had low expectations), Up in sympathy: LSI +3.9%, STM +2.5%, BRCM +2.5%.... Security Stocks running: TASR +3.1% (Second look at inmate death ends Taser suspicion -- AP), TBUS +7.1% (co announces surface transit order), MACE +4.2%.... Other news: GMAI +8.7% (reports JunQ), ULCM +8.7% (reports JulQ), CMVT +6.6% (reports JulQ; chosen to provide IM platform for Cingular Wireless), ICPT +6.2% (to be acquired by FNF), GLW +4.3% (reaffirms Q3 guidance), JDSU +4.3% (in sympathy with GLW).... Under $3: ATAR +10.4% (co and AGI to develop slots based on Atari video games).

    Gapping Down

    REMC -23% (misses JulQ; downgrades from Needham and CIBC), PTMK -16% (misses by $0.09, lowers Y04 guidance), RCII -12% (lowers Q3 guidance; Stephens downgrade), CHIC -11% (expects low-single digit comps vs guidance for mid-single digit comps), MEE -5% (sees Q3 potentially coming in below low end of guidance), CHS -4% (says month-to-date comps down 2%), AZN -3.6% (FDA staff says co's Exanta risk plan doesn't address some possible risks -- Reuters), MATK -2.6% (reports JulQ), AAPL -1% (Bear Stearns downgrade).
  • LHV Pro all ka uus Kauplemisidee
  • Viimasel ajal muu turu suhtes nõrkust üles näidanud pooljuhid on täna üks suurimatest tõusjatest. SOX hetkel plussis 2%, samas kui S&P500 juba napis miinuses. Tundub, et vähemalt lühiajaliselt on kõik halvad uudised juba pooljuhtidesse sisse arvatud ning piisavalt ülemüüduna tuli ka põrge. Lisaks väike abi vast ka Nokialt.

    Kvartalitulemused avaldas National Semiconductor (NSM), ning lõi ootusi 5 sendiga aktsia kohta ($0,31 vs est$0,26). Ootusi ületati ka käibe osas - $548 miljonit vs est$545,6 miljonit.

    Pärast eilset Texas Instrumentsi (TXN) teadet käibeprognooside alandamisest kuid EPSi ühesendilisest tõstmisest on akstia hetkel 6,21% rohelises. Järgnevalt pooljuhtide mõõtmis- ja kontrollseadmete tootja KLA-Tencori kvartalisisesed kommentaarid.

    KLA-Tencor Corp, a maker of measurement and inspection equipment used in chip making, on Thursday said it expects orders in the current quarter to come in at the low end of expectations. KLA-Tencor Chief Financial Officer John Kispert told investors at SG Cowen's annual technology conference that he sees the semiconductor industry in a "pause period," but said he does not think the sector is in a full downturn. The San Jose, California-based company had forecast a wide range for orders in the September-ending quarter, saying bookings could rise or fall as much as 10 percent.

    Bookings, which indicate revenue in upcoming quarters, are one of the most widely watched measures of the health of chip-equipment suppliers. KLA-Tencor is the largest producer of tools that finds flaws during the process of making chips. KLA-Tencor said it expects quarterly revenue in the range of $505 million to $515 million, with earnings of 54 to 56 cents

  • NSM Q2 guidance oli täiesti p*rsest. Oodati flat kasvu, tuli 8-10% kukkumist. Sellest ka MXIM, LLTC ja kogu muu space all.

    Kuigi jah, ülejäänud sektor VÕIKS olla veel rohkem allpool. Aga ei ole.


    sB
  • Kuigi SOX tegi National Semi tõttu tugeva jõnksu alla poole, on nüüdseks kosutud ning tagasi endistel kõrgustel. Päeva esimene pool on pooljuhtidele vähemalt tugev - +3,1%.
  • MICU doing the wow thing. Veidi pos. uudiseid täna hommikul

    sB
  • Kui SOX suudaks päevasisese tugevuse sulgemiseni säilitada, oleks tegemist käesoleva aasta kõige suurema tõusuga. Hetkel +5,62%, eelmine rekord pärineb 6. veebruarist, kui sulguti 4,78% plussis.
  • Nagu Kristjan avalöögis mainis (loe siit), siis suurele pooljuhtide langusele võivad järgneda ülikiired põrked, ning langusele panustada ei maksaks. Nii ka juhtus, ning SOX tegi selle aasta suurima tõusupäeva. Allpool ka pisut ajalugu - SOXi suurimad tõusu ja languspäevad sel aastal.

     9. september (eile)           5,37% 3. september 5,23%
     6. veebruar 4,78% 11. august 5,16%
     2. aprill 3,74% 14. juuli 4,48%
     7. juuni 3,68% 27. jaanuar 4,15%
     25. märts 3,67% 6. juuli 3,97%

     

  • A federal judge on Thursday rejected the government's bid to block Oracle Corp.'s proposed acquisition of rival PeopleSoft Inc.

    PSFT lendas mõnuga selle peale. Täna tasuks ka teisi sektori ettevõtteid jälgida.

    Ardo

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