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Börsipäev 14. september

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  • USA majandusuudised ning orkaan Ivani lähenemine lõunapoolsetele osariikidele on futuuride hindadele negatiivselt mõjunud ning oodata on kerget miinuses avanemist.Nafta hind on samuti negatiivselt mõjumas ning naftabarrel on taas testimas 45 dollari taset.

    JUba eile turul spekuleeritud ülevõtmine on teoks saamas ning Sony ostab 4,8 miljardi dollari eest filmitootja Metro Goldwyn Mayer (MGM). Lisaks teatas Sony, et on allkirjastanud lepingu Comcast`ga (CMCSK), et levitada oma filme esimese kaabelvõrgus, tegemist siis videote tellimisega läbi kaabelvõrgu.

    Credit Suisse tõstis elektroonikatööstusele allhankeid tegeva Flextronics (FLEX) reitingut neutraalselt turgu edestavale ning hinnasihti 16 dollarile. Peamine põhjendus on, et aktsia hinnalangus on olnud liialt kiire ning ei peegelda enam tegelikku olukorda.

    Goldman Sachs tõstis oksjonikorraldaja eBay (EBAY) prognoose. Kolmandalt kvartalilt oodatakse 790 miljoni dollari suurust käivet (varasem 775 miljonit) ja 27 senti kasumit aktsia kohta (varem 26 senti).  

    Rev Shark:

    There is a large contingent of bears in this market who claim that it is extremely dangerous because of the high level of complacency exhibited by investors. These bears say that investors are too sanguine and are ignoring the substantial risks that exist in the market.

    The bears' primary evidence of investor apathy toward danger is the CBOE Market Volatility Index, which is commonly referred to as the VIX. The best way to understand the VIX is to consider how the price of options is calculated. The option price, exercise price and maturity date are three variables that are known. A fourth factor that impacts the value of an option is the risk-free rate of return on capital -- in other words, what is the cost of having your funds tied up until the option expires?

    If we take those four factors and the current price of an option and plug them into an option-pricing model such as the Black-Scholes model and solve it for an unknown fifth variable, that number is the implied volatility of the option. It is nothing more than the market's calculation of the amount of risk that the option will be at the strike price at the time of expiration.

    The concern of the bears is that the VIX is at its lowest point since 1996. That means that market participants are not expecting wild fluctuations in the indices. They are comfortable and confident that the market will move up slowly and steadily without a lot of wild swings.

    That complacency and lack of worry and concern is viewed by the bears as a contrary sign. The more confident that folks are that the market will move slowly and steadily upward, the more likely they will be disappointed. The bears say the very low level of the VIX is a signal that market participants are more and more likely to be greeted with a major surprise at some point.

    That is what the VIX is all about. It is basically a contrary indicator based on the amount of potential volatility that investors are pricing into options. The less volatility that is expected to occur, the more confident investors are and the more likely they are going to be surprised by a big move.

    The strong action in technology stocks that has been driving the Nasdaq has helped send the VIX down to 13.17, which is a level last seen in 1996. The bears claim that simply can't last for long. Investors are setting themselves up for a shock.

    The problem is that VIX has been downtrending for about two years now. We have heard arguments about the high level of complacency all of last year as the markets rallied steadily. VIX is simply not a very precise timing tool. There is nothing to indicate that it has a great likelihood of spiking up in the near future. Obviously we should keep an eye on it but as far as signaling that some sort of disaster is on the cusp of occurring, we might as well stick to astrology.

    Hurricane Ivan is helping to send crude oil up again this morning and that is weighing a bit on the early indications. Asian markets were up over night on strength in technology but European markets were lower on weakness in financials and IT. We have retail sales reports due out this morning, which will be interesting in view of recent strength in that group.

    Gary B. Smith:

     

  • Gapping Up

    TASR +6% (receives 3 large orders), DOVP +3% (co and Merck receive Hart-Scott-Rodino clearance), SIRI +3.2% (Madden to join Sirius Satellite radio as football commentator ), FCEL +3% (co's plant certified as the largest fuel cell system to meet 2007 California emissions requirement), RIG +2.8% (Goldman upgrade), KMRT +2.6% (target raised to $101 at UBS), QLGC +2.4% (chosen by IBM for eServer BladeCenter), CNO +4.5% (announces closing agreement with IRS), OXGN +4.2% (expands oncology program), NTMD +4.1% (names new CFO).... Under $3: TRKN +19% (announces funding award), PROX +15% (settles patent case with SBL), SIGA +11% (secures $4 mln in govt funding for biological terrorism research), GLOW +6% (co says it sees no reason for stock selling-off 26% yesterday), UAIR +6% (bounces from 30% drop yesterday).

    Gapping Down

    LSI -9% (guides Q3 lower; Wachovia downgrade), BRCM -1.3% (downgrades from Morgan Stanley and CE Unterberg), SPRT -7% (Smith Barney downgrade), ODP -6% (guides lower), CAH -2.5% (delays filing fiscal year-end results; sees 10-15% decline for 1H05), BDN -2.3% (announces stock offering).
  • Sampo (SAMAS) on täna Helsingis võitlemas 8.40 EUR vastupanuga, tund enne kauplemispäeva lõppu on ostu- ja müüginoteeringud vastavalt 8.41 ja 8.42 EUR tasemel. Kuna aktsiat omavad ka paljud LHV kliendid, kes valdavalt omandasid aktsia enne 1.50 suurust dividendimakset hinnatasemel 9.00-9.20 EUR, siis on põhjust järgnevate päevade liikumisel silm peal hoida. Suurem tõenäosus näib olevat taseme murdmiseks, peale mida ka tõus võiks jätkuda.

     

  • Pop-quiz:

    Aasta 2004 on turule tervikuna ja tehnoloogiasektorile üsna raske olnud, kui palju siis on aasta algusest spekulatiivne internetisektor miinuses?

    Vihje - indeksaktsiaks HHH.
  • Pooljuhid on LSI Logic'u (LSI) ja Broadcom'i (BRCM) kasumihoiatustele vaatamata vaid minimaalselt punases (SOX:-0,3%) liikunud. Eks ühest küljest seeditakse külgsuunalise liikumisega kindlasti viimaste päevade järsku tõusu, teisest küljest ootab aga suur hulk turuosalisi pärast kauplemise lõppu avaldatavat Xilinxi (XLNX) vahearuannet. Eelmisel nädalal säilitas Banc of America firmale küll buy reitingu, kuid vähendas kasumiootusi 29 sendi peale 27 sendi juurde aktsia kohta. Samuti usutakse, et eelnevalt ennustatud 2 kuni 4 protsendiline käibe kasv jääb saavutamata ning seega langetati ka ootusi $423,6 miljonile varasemalt $436lt. Kui Xilinx järgib mitmete eelmisel (ja sel) nädalal vahearuandeid avaldanud ettevõtete jälgi, siis tõenäoliselt kärbitakse täna õhtul käibeprognoose, kuid kasumi kallale eriti ei minda.

    LSI Logic (LSI) ootab nüüd kahjumiks aktsia kohta 14 kuni 17 senti varasema nullise kuni 3 sendise prognoosi asemel. Käibevahemik toodi endise $435-$465 juurest $370 kuni $400 miljoni juurde. Wachiova alandas reitingu outperformilt mkt-performile.

    Broadcom (BRCM) teatas, et käesoleva kvartali käive jääb eelmisega võrreldes tõenäoliselt suhteliselt muutumatuks ($641 miljonit), samas kui varem prognoositi 5 kuni 6 protsendilist kasvu ($673 kuni $680 miljonit). Morgan Stanley alandas reitingu overweightilt equal-weightile, CE Unterberg Towbin buy'lt mkt-performile.

  • brcm ei andnud kasumihoiatust minuteada
    see oli käibehoiatus, kasum pidi samaks jääma?
  • minu viga, Broadcomi'lt ainult käive.
  • Täna aasia stockid rallivad.

    Kas põhjus selles, mis allpool artiklis kirjas?

    http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2004/9/14/business/8890910&sec=business

  • Pop-quiz:
    Et siis +21% tegelt läbi rõhuvate raskuste tähtede poole...
  • Fantoom, õige. Internetistokkide shortimine on viimastel aastatel väga valusalt enamasti lõppenud, seega pole ka praegu aeg nende shortimist soovitada. Kuid õhku on neis kindlasti omajagu.
  • Fantoom, õige. Internetistokkide shortimine on viimastel aastatel väga valusalt enamasti lõppenud, seega pole ka praegu aeg nende shortimist soovitada. Kuid õhku on neis kindlasti omajagu.
  • XLNX Xilinx lowers Q2 guidance

    Company guides Q2, now expects revenues to be down 5-7% sequentially, a decrease from original guidance of up 2-4% sequentially. Co also sees gross margins of approx 64%, slightly lower than prior guidance of 65%. As a result of lower revenue levels, inventory days at XLNX and distribution are expected to be approx 155 days, up from prior guidance of 135-140 days 

  • Legg Mason (maja, kes upgreidis KO aktsiaid eelmisel nädalal) sez:

    "...However, we also strongly recommend buying today as investor frustration peaks, implying the company's long-term operating profit power is around 3%-4% annually when, in fact, it is
    materially stronger than that. Multiple valuation metrics point to an oversold valuation and results over the next year are likely to compare favorably to low investor expectations, driving the shares to our $52 12- month target price..."

    KO paari aasta charti peal on üks täitmata gap (May 2003), kuhu juurde aktsiad ilmselt täna tüürivad.

    sB

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