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Börsipäev 20. september

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  • Päeva paistame futuuride järgi kerges miinuses alustavat.

    Surve all on kindlasti biotehnoloogia, Maxim (MAXM) teatas, et nende ravim Ceplene ei saanud Phase III läbitud ja see on eelturul aktsia 53% allapoole virutanud.

    Ehk siis uudis on sarnane Eyetechi (EYET) FDA strateegiale, oleks EYET ka negatiivse vastuse saanud, oleks liikumine sama ulatusega olnud.
  • Rev Shark:

    "Entrepreneurs are simply those who understand that there is little difference between obstacle and opportunity and are able to turn both to their advantage."

    -- Victor Kiam

    The market always has to contend with obstacles of some sort. One of the biggest obstacles of all is the perception that there are no obstacles. There is always a negative -- real or perceived -- to consider. Our job as investors and traders is to determine whether the market has the character and fortitude to surmount problems and obstacles.

    The primary negative the market is struggling with right now is mediocre economic growth, slowing earnings in key sectors such as semiconductors, and the likelihood of another interest rate hike by the FOMC this Tuesday. There also is the usual contingent of folks worried about valuation, and we have seasonality and earnings warnings season to contend with as well.

    There is plenty of stuff to worried about if you are so inclined and that is probably one of the biggest positives this market has going for it right now. Some would argue that a fairly high level of skepticism about the ability of the indices to more higher is a positive because it indicates many folks are underinvested and unprepared for more strength.

    Another positive this market has going for it is discussed in this morning's Wall Street Journal. An article discusses how President Bush's surge in the polls has been a positive for the market and has helped offset traditional seasonal weakness. The author points to a very strong correlation between the movement in the indices and "presidential futures" at sites such as Tradespot.com.

    As a market mover, the election results are a bit murky. There is still plenty of time before the election and even if it becomes even more clear that President Bush will win, the market impact of that is likely to be priced in fairly quickly.

    The most promising positive this market has right now is the technical patterns of the major indices. Both the S&P 500 and DJIA are sitting right below the downtrend line that commenced at the beginning of the year. Both indices have been holding close to recent highs on good volume and building a base from which they could produce another leg up. The oversold condition that was created by the strong move since mid-August is being worked off but we are still extended.

    The bottom line is that we can find all sorts of good fundamental reasons why this market should not go higher but ultimately it is game of supply and demand. The bulls have been doing a good job snapping up available demand and are in a position to move higher but they have some very big obstacles to overcome, and until some of the significant downtrends are broken with some degree of conviction we can't be overly confident in the upside.

    We have quite a few warnings and some downbeat news to contend with this morning. Oil is up and most overseas markets are weak. Weakness in banks and financial stocks on Friday was a worrisome sign and one that we will have to watch carefully.

    My game plan continues to be to look for quick profits in individual stocks while hedging my exposure with a short position in the QQQ. I'm very skeptical of the ability of the semiconductor group to continue higher given that there has been no positive news in the sector, just the hope that it has already priced in the worst.

    It's Monday morning and time to shake off the cobwebs and get your head into the game. Good luck and go get 'em.

    Short QQQ

    G. B. Smith:

     

  • Gapping Up

    OSIP +11% (clinical study says Tarceva has met its goal of improving patients' survival), MEDX +19% (announces major antibody strategic alliance with Pfizer), CRXA +15% (announces FDA acceptance of application), FLYI +13% (positive Barron's story), STEM +8% (gets patent for work done covering composition of matter claims for the human neural stem cell), EXM +7%, DNA +5% (see OSIP), ERES +4% (momentum from 16% move the last week), PCYC +4% (presents interim data from Phase 1 trial), IMOS +4%, IMCL +2.3%, BBBY +1.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust).

    Gapping Down

    MAXM -48% (trial fails to show Ceplene drug improves liver cancer survival rate; Rodman & Renshaw downgrade), CL -9% (guides Q3 lower), VYYO -35% (guides Q3 lower), CNLG -10% (auditors resign), UN -6.4% (guides lower), PMCS -4.2% (lowers Q3 rev guidance), CECO -3.9% (UBS downgrade), SONS -3.5%, AUDC -3.5% (UBS downgrade), APOL -3.5% (UBS downgrade), UTSI -3.6% (slashes guidance), SPIL -3.2%, NEWP -3% (Thomas Weisel downgrade), IACI -2.8% (Goldman downgrade), PHG -2.3%, CAMD -2.2% (profit taking from 26% move on Friday).
  • Turg läheb tehnoloogiasektori (eriti pooljuhid) toel võimsalt, tasub jälgida just spekulatiivsete sektorite liikumist, nemad indikatsiooniks edasiseks.
  • Nokia (NOK) ei taha kuidagi 14$ tasemest jagu saada...
  • Nokia should rebound more quickly than most think -- AmTech

    AmTech believes better phone designs, favorable component costs, and struggling competitors will allow NOK to rebound more quickly than most think. The firm expects bottom line growth to likely surpass most estimates for 4Q04. The firm sees market share rising (especially in China) and new phones hitting sold out status very quickly. If the fundamental bottom has been achieved last quarter, then a PE of 19X for this cash flow giant seems very reasonable.
  • to arkok

    Ega sa tea midagi FLYI kohta,millal see Barron story ilmus?
  • Privador,

    Täna hommikul. Barrons ilmub Laupäeviti.

    sB
  • Kodumaises murdes on nädalapäevad siiski väikese algustähega :)

    sB
  • FLYI käitus parajalt rõvedalt Barronsi smallcap picki kohta, avanes üles ja kukkus kolinal. Üks penny newsletter haipis seda ka päeval, ikka ei tõusnud.
    Haibitööstus magab ikka veel.
  • Fire reported on the Metro North tracks in Manhattan
    According to the NY Police Scanner, there are fire trucks in the vicinity of 49th Street and Park.

    huvitav. turg kukkus kolinal.
  • ei tea newsletterit, üks kontakt mainis.
  • Miks ma seda FLYI kohta kysin.Nimelt reedel sulgus FLYI selges miinuses 4.07 peal.Keegi hull ostis mult j2relturul 4.33 peal.Huvitav kas Barron oli siis just artiklit kirjutamas:)

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