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Börsipäev 21. september

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Tänasest börsipäevast võiks kujuneda läbimurre üles või kukkumine ja taas aasta põhjade testimine. Päeva alguses ootaks väga madalat kauplemisaktiivsust, sest Föderaalreservi nõukogu annab oma intressimäära otsusest teada kell 21.15. Väga suure tõenäosusega on oodata 0.25% intressitõstmist.

    Majade ehitamise number oli oodatust parem, aasta baasil kerkis augustis 2.0 miljonit ühikut, ootused olid 1.92 miljonit.

    RF Micro Devices (RFMD) hoiatas ,kuid eelturul on aktsia 8% plussis. Märk, et turul on tahtmine tõusta suurem kui hirm languse ees.

    Palm One (PLMO) kvartaliprognoos oli oodatust veidi madalam ning aktsia 8% miinuses eelturul, antud juhul tegemist väga volatiilse aktsiaga, mis suutnud päeva sees 10 punkti üles ja alla liikuda.

    Rev Shark:

    The primary focus of the day will be the FOMC interest rate decision, due out at 2:15 p.m. EDT. A quarter-point hike is almost universally expected and is unlikely to have any major market impact. The focus will be on the accompanying statement, which will provide some hints about the FOMC's view of the economy and the likelihood of future interest rate hikes.

    The FOMC is walking a rather thin line. On one hand, it doesn't want to foreclose the possibility of more rate hikes to come because that would be a tacit admission that it thinks the economy is struggling. On the other hand, it doesn't want to be so committed to a particular course of action that it doesn't take into account the reality of a struggling economic recovery.

    The ideal situation for the market would be a statement by the FOMC that the economy is looking good but fears of inflation have eased and interest rate hikes are on hold. That would be the perfect storm for the bulls. But the problem with that is that economic growth and inflation tend to go hand-in-hand. The FOMC risks its credibility with a statement of that sort.

    The likelihood is that we get some vague statement about how the economy is doing OK and the FOMC will stay vigilant and ready to act if necessary. How would the market react to that? Given the big run we have had in recent weeks, there is probably some inclination to "sell the news," but I think the FOMC's goal is to be so obtuse that the market will be confused about how to react.

    On the last 12 FOMC decision days, the market opened higher, and it looks like the streak will stay intact. Early indications are positive. Overseas markets were up overnight. Oil is easing and that is helping matters a bit. We have mixed news with some positive from the likes of Adobe (ADBE:Nasdaq) but negative from PalmOne (PLMO:Nasdaq) that really whipsawed some folks last night.

    Look for choppy, boring action in front of the FOMC announcement and then some fireworks.

    No positions in stocks mentioned

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    EGHT +9% (announces VoIP prepaid telephone service), CRIS +9% (announces positive Cancer Cell article on technology), AGIX +8.5% (Lehman upgrade), DAL +8% (pilots agree to let airline recall retirees - WSJ), PLUG +7.3% (signs distribution agreement with Tyco Electronics), SSTI +6.2% (lowers guidance, but warning had been expected), TELN +3.3% (co demonstrates cellular system for airlines), ADBE +3% (beats by $0.04, guides above consensus; JP Morgan upgrade), ASKJ +3% (co redesigns parts of website), KBH +2.7% (earnings/raises guidance), TASR +2.5% (says National Guard to implement Taser X26 weapons), Under $3: BRNC +30% (to be acquired by FIC).

    Gapping Down

    PLMO -8.2% (beats, but guides lower), GLDB -11% (acquiring co lowers offer price), MAXM -6% (continues from 49% drop yesterday), ISSI -5.3% (guides lower; Needham downgrade), RHAT -5% (beats by a penny; light on revs; UBS downgrade; CSFB lowers tgt to $20 from $27), PSRC -3.8% (sympathy with PLMO), COCO -3.7% (informal SEC inquiry).

  • Aktsiaturg oktoobris aitab ennustada presidenti (või vastupidi?):

    Over the last 100 years, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the incumbent party has NEVER lost when the D-J Industrial Average rose 3.3% or more in the final month of the campaign. In years when the Dow dipped 0.5% or more in October, the incumbent party has NEVER won.
  • Ardo valikutest täna BE ja TTMI töötavad päris hästi. Eilne SIRF jätkab ka veel tõusu aga tundub juba veidi võhmal.

    sB
  • MRKL sai täna lepingu USA armee käest. Väike float + contract news. Need asjad tunduvad toimivat.

    Paar viimast päeva on UGHO ka olnud päris..rikastav.

    sB
  • Turg on üsna magama jäänud ja ega enne FEDi ei ärkagi. Ärge siis unustage kell 21.10-ks äratuskella panna.
  • MICU Vicuron Pharma upped to Over Weight from Equal Weight at Pacific Growth

    The upgrade is based on outlook and valuation. By end of '04, firm expects MICU to file the NDA for dalbavancin in skin and soft tissue infections, initiate a Phase II study of the deformylase inhibitor, and potentially file an IND for VIC-603. Firm expects the stock to appreciate through the first half of '05 in anticipation of potentially positive Phase III data for anidulafungin in the invasive candidiasis setting.
  • MICU näeb lühiajaliselt veidi negatiivne välja (tehniliselt + kõhutunne). Ise olen 12 juurest pikk ja hoian seda kui pikemajaliselt investeeringut sihiga $30 kanti. Siiski, lühiajaliselt tundub neg. Olenemata Pacificu upgreidist.

    sB
  • 15 min aega FOMC otsuseni ja turg teeb väikest rallit.

    sB
  • Need rallid enne FEDi on enamasti poole tunni pärast tähtsusetud ...
  • Positiivse poole pealt: inflatsiooniootused on vähenenud.
  • Aktsiaturgudel suuremaid liikumisi pole, kuid dollar on euro vastu kiirelt pinda kaotamas, hetkel 1,233 eur/usd.
  • FED vastas seega täiesti ootustele - 25 bp tõus ja ka sõnastus jäeti samaks. Ning väike petteliigutus üles (vt. tänane Avalöök) ning praegu suund kergelt allapoole.
  • praegu tundub, et oli hoopis väike pettemanööver ALLA (see hetkeline üles oli ajaliselt oluliselt lühem kui avalöögis viidatud).
  • Fantoom, sedamoodi hetkel paistab tõesti.
  • Roheline raha kaotab Euro vastu. Not nice.

    sB
  • QQQ resistance @ 35.75 läks nagu sauna aken. viimase nädala jooksul on seda 3x edutult rünnatud. näis, kas suudetakse nüüd sulguda sellest peal pool.
  • peteti üles ja peteti alla, lõpuks ikka samas kohas kus enne FEDi, :)
  • Jah, ilmselt tuli lõpuks mängu see, et FED vastas liiga täpselt kõikide ootustele.
  • Mis kuulujutud? Kes levitab? Miks levitab? Kas levitab? Ja kas Finantsinpektsioon ka juba teab? :-D
  • tonis, väga õige, tuli just uudis, et "Hansapank ostab Venemaal panga". väga huvitav oli ka kahtlemata see, et just Hansapanga maaklerid olid viimastel päevadel (enne uudist) väga tugevasti ostupoolel.
  • dough, selle viimase laksu üles käivitas muide hoopis teine City Plazas platseeruv maaklerfirma (mitte LHV).



    :-D

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