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Börsipäev 22. september - FEDi järellainetus

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  • Täna on oodata nn suure raha reaktsiooni eilsele intressimäära tõstmise otsusele, futuurid indikeerivad igatahes kergelt negatiivsele päeva algusele. Nafta hind on tõusnud  47 dollarini barreli eest ning oodatakse USA naftareservide statistikat.

    Eastman Kodak (EK) ootab viimaseks kvartaliks kasumit vahemikku 1,71 kuni 2,01 dollarit aktsia kohta. Filmitootja ootab 2007. aastani aastakasvuks 7-8%. Traditsiooniline tegevusala käive on kiirelt kahanemas, kuid seda kompenseerib digitaaltehnoloogia revolutsioon. Aktsia on eelturul üle 3% plussis.

    Deutsche Bank alandas võrgutootja Cisco (CSCO) reitingut "hoia" peale, lisaks alandati lõppeva kvartali müügikasvu 2 protsendilt 1 protsendile ja kasumiprognoosi sendi võrra 20 sendile aktsia kohta.

    Vodafone (VOD) teatas, et on jõuluks turule tulemas 10 uut 3G telefoni, mis peaksid tähendama selle tehnoloogia laiemat jõudmist Euroopa turule. Motorola (MOT) telefone on nende seas kolm, Nokia telefone vaid üks.

    Rev Shark:

    With the FOMC interest rate decision now out of the way and the start of earnings season still a couple weeks off, the easy gains are over. We are at a junction now where further upside moves will require the bulls to be persistent and vigorous in their buying.

    The six-week bounce has given the bulls momentum as the bears are continually squeezed and the folks with cash on the sidelines worry about being left behind. One of the major positives for the bulls has been the persistent skepticism that has created the proverbial "wall of worry" that we have been scaling nicely.

    However, the higher we go the more difficult the climb becomes and the tougher and more persistent the bulls must be if they are going to produce another leg upward. One of the most positive aspects of the recent action has been the very strong breadth. There was better than 2 gainers for every decliner yesterday, which shows that buyers are not just focusing on a small group of stocks to drive the market. Volume, however, was just average and that undermines breadth to some degree.

    The key to this market, as is so often the case, is technology stocks. The second half of the recent rally was mainly produced by a "the bad news is already fully priced in" rally in semiconductors. There is nothing wrong with a move of that sort but at some point the stocks need to have actual good news and not just news that could have been worse. The semiconductor HOLDR (SMH:AMEX) has to hold above the 32 mark and the QQQ needs to crack its 200-day simple moving average at 35.81 in order to take out overhead resistance. A failure to do so should bring in buyers.

    We have a downgrade of Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) this morning by Deutsche Bank because of the analyst's concerns about sales in North America. We'll have to watch this stock closely to see if those worries gain some traction.

    The bulls have some hard work ahead of them if they are going to keep this move going. The FOMC interest rate decision is the sort of news that can easily trigger profit-taking and given that we are heading into the peak earnings warning season and the weakest time period seasonally, there are some tough hurdles to surmount.

    We have a negative open on the way as the news flow is a bit negative. Overseas markets were mostly lower in Asia because of higher oil prices and mixed in Europe as technology was higher but consumer staples remain a problem.

    Stay extra vigilant: We are on the cusp of a turning point in this market.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    WLDA +26% (guides higher), IMMR +22% (wins patent infringement trial against Sony), COCO +12.4% (says campus returned to Advance Payment Status), CMTL +11% (reports JulQ, beats handily), EK +3.9% (reaffirms forecast; reports progress in digital growth strategy), BPA +11% (positive clinical data), AIRT +6.5% (in sympathy with WLDA), JBL +6.4% (reports strong AugQ), SANM +4.2% (in sympathy with JBL), LEXR +6.3% (WR Hambrecht says LEXR a trading opportunity; short squeeze), WOR +6.2% (reports strong AugQ), EGHT +6% (signs wholesale agreements), CYH +3.9% (CIBC upgrade), RFMD +3.5% (JP Morgan upgrade), PCLN +3.6% (raises Q4 guidance), TIBX +2.6% (reports AugQ), APOL +2.4% (COCO sympathy; BofA positive comment), TASR +1.2%.... Under $3: GIGM +39% (reports first ever profit).

    Gapping Down

    IBC -42% (files for bankruptcy), BMRN -19% (lowers guidance; CIBC downgrade), MWD -6.1% (reports AugQ, misses by $0.18), GLT -3.7% (to sell 1,981 acres of timberlands in Delaware), RD -3.5% (makes key strategy presentation), DCX -3%, TLAB -3% (Morgan Stanley downgrade), CSCO -2% (Deutsche downgrade), AZO -2.5% (reports poor AugQ; downgrade from SunTrust), FDX -1.9% (reports AugQ).... Under $3: MAXM -8% (continues recent sell-off).
  • 09:37  MRKL.OB -- Wins Army contract (1.21 +0.08) 

     Co announces that the US Army's Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate has awarded it a new $4.8 mln contract to provide support services for a Close Combat Sensors task delivery order on the Omnibus contract



    Niisiis selline uudis. Markland Tech (MRKL) on pisike firma, mis paari päeva eest sai ühe $12 mln tellimuse ning on selle peale kõvasti tõusnud. Täna tuli uus leping. Float on väike kuid likviidust on tohutult, mis tähendab, et isegi hilinedes on võimalik rongile tavaliselt jõuda.

    Need aktsiad liiguvad päris suurelt ning kui trend on paika pandud, siis kestab see reeglina päris pikalt.
    UGHO oli üks sarnane näide veidi aja eest.

    long MRKL,

    sB

  • Junk ja haip on viimastel päevadel isegi lendu näidanud, SureBet lubas ka siia foorumisse pista huvitamaid lennukeid, mis võiks lennuvõimet näidata, seega püsige lainel.
  • Out MRKL +$0.08-0.10.

    STOPs mandatory selliste mängude puhul. Ärge jääge bagholderiteks. Kui asi liigub üle 10-15 sendi vastu, siis tuleks kindlasti välja minna.

    sB
  • Interstate Bakeries (IBC) teatas pankrotistumisest, väikeste aktsiate kauplemise kohta päris huvitav point James Altucherilt:

    "Although some of the low-carb guys like Sanderson Farms and Smithfield Foods have gone down recently its been too little too late for super-carb company Interstate Bakeries (IBC). IBC, the maker of Twinkies, filed for bankruptcy this morning.
    In my book, Trade Like a Hedge Fund I discuss a strategy for buying bankruptcies the instant they start trading after annoucing the bankruptcy, even though the common stock is almost certainly worth zero. The idea being that everyone who shorted in anticipation of the bankruptcy is now being squeezed.

    IBC started trading in the pre-market at 1.30 and is now at 2.05. Unfortunately I missed the play but its interesting to note.

  • Stoppide kasutamise kohta lisaksin omalt poolt nii palju, et kunagi ei ole mõtet P&D/Haip aktsiate puhul kasutada automaatseid triggereid ümmargustel/psühholoogilistel tasemetel. Countless times olen näinud, kuidas aktsia kukutatakse tõenäolisest stopist läbi, stoporderid lähevad käiku ja aktsia jätkab tõusu. Näiteks (fiktiivne): aktsia on tõusnud $10->$16.50. Kuna on extremely likely, et valdav osa stoppe tõmmatakse $15 peale, siis nevaeva pane stop sellisele tasemele. Pane näiteks $14.70 või $14.40 vms. Kui riskitaluvus väiksem, siis ka $16 fake'i vältimiseks näiteks $15.60 vms.

    Muidu ongi nii, et stopid kogu aeg auti ja aru ei saa mis toimub :)
  • Selle pankrotistrateegia kohta: kehtib vaid juhul kui tuntud firma ja kõik juba teavad, et pankrott tõenäoliselt tulemas. Mingid väiksed kräpid kukuvad sageli kogu päeva.
  • Njah kui PD aktsiates vähegi powerit on ei tasuks Stoppe üldse kasutada,eriti kui veel niikuinii 24h kuvari ees ollakse.
    Kas keegi võiks kommenteerida ministrateegiate kohta
    1)ümmargused numbrid-nt 10,20$ STP LMT orderi paned nt 20.00 peale ,Sell orderi a la 20.18 STP kuskile 19.8 kanti
    Ei ole seda eriti praktiseerinud,kui niipalju näinud oled siis harva ta jääb sinna 20.1 peale ja siis kolinal alla.
    2)Müra strateegia kasutamine. Ostad mingit suure spreadiga volatiivset aktsiat ala 19.6 peal ja müüd 19.74 peal(orderid sisestatakse minimaalse ajavahega)(vahe võib ka väiksem olla).Kui aktsia lliigub sinule sobivas suunas ,pole küsimustki,kui tammub paigal varieerub ta nii palju et order täidetakse,ebasoosas suunas liikuvuse korral oleneb nõutud vahe panekust,kas order täidetakse.
    Täna ma praktiseerisin nii AIRT-ga ja õnnestunult 2-l korral.
  • Päris naljakas taktika, privador.

    sB

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