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Börsipäev 12. oktoober - õhtul Yahoo ja Intel

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  • Majandustulemuste hooaeg on käimas ka Euroopas.

    Philips (PHI) tulemused olid inline, sealjuures pooljuhtide allüksuse tulemused oodatust paremad (võib olla vihjeks Inteli suhtes) ja 2005. aastaks oodatakse märgatavat kasvu. Ootustele jäi aga alla tarbeelektroonika allüksus. Turg ei ole inline tulemustega rahul, aktsia -1,32%.

    Teine oluline raporteerija Euroopas: Prantsuse kaubamajakett Carrefour (CA), maailma 1 suurimaid jaemüüjaid, aktsia -2,05%, ettevõte plaanib raha hankimise eesmärgil müüa Jaapanis asuvad poed.

     

    Sure Bettie palvel väike märkus, Euroopa aktsiatest rääkides kasutan alati ikka neid sümboleid, mille all aktsiad kauplevad LHV klientidele kättesaadaval Saksamaa turul: CA on Carrefour seal, aga hoopis Computer Associates USA turul, samamoodi PHI on Philips Euroopas, aga USA turul peitub selle sümboli taga hoopis Philippine nimeline firma. Kui LHV klient asub ostma mõnd sellise kaksiti mõistetava sümboliga aktsiat, siis orderi edastamisel tuleb teha valik, kumba aktsiat ta soovib - niisiis kogemata ühe pähe teist osta siiski ei õnnestu, :)

  • Täna annab majandustulemuste hooajale pooljuhtide sektoris avalöögi kiibi-gigant Intel (INTC), kes avaldab tulemused pärast turgude sulgemist (ootused - käive $8,45 miljardit, EPS $0,27). Homsest ka juba mõned semi equipmendi tootjad. Kokkuvõtte sel nädalal pooljuhtide sektoris avaldatavatest tulemustest leiate siit, ülevaate olulisematest ettevõtetest pooljuhtide sektoris, siit.

    Intel (INTC) will report third-quarter results after the close. Wall Street is expecting earnings of 27 cents per share and revenue of $8.44 billion, according to analysts polled by Thomson First Call. Credit Suisse First Boston expects the tech bellwether to report in-line earnings. "We believe September had normal growth off a weaker August," CSFB said. The research firm forecasts "conservative" fourth-quarter guidance. Intel increased inventory $427 million quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter and indicated in its mid-quarter update that inventory could ramp a further $150 million "due to slower demand than expected and ramp of product outside processors." CSFB said, "We believe the company will cut wafer starts aggressively in the fourth quarter of 2004 and first half of 2005 to lower inventory, but at the expense of near-term gross margins." The firm rates Intel at "outperform" with a $25 target price. Intel shares closed up 6 cents, or 0.29%, to $20.61.

  • Futuurid on täna hommikul sügaval punases. Põhjused?

    - Naftahind on tõusnud üle $54 taseme.

    - Goldmani legendaarne hardware analüütik Laura Conigliaro on väljas arvamusega, et IBM-i tulemused võivad teenuste poole pealt tulla oodatust märksa nõrgemad. Naljakal kombel oli maja juba eelmisel nädalal preview ära teinud aga äkki avastati, et $11 miljardi asemel võib services rev tulla alla $10 miljardi. Sentiment Call.

    - CIBC alandab tehnoloogia poster-childi Broadcomi (BRCM) 2004/2005 aasta prognoose väites, et kuigi turuosalised ootavad nõrkust (selles kvartalis eriti), siis võib see olla oodatust suurem. Sentiment Call.

    - Turul liigub kuulujutt, et maailma 2. suurim jaemüüja Carrefour võib anda kasumihoiatuse. USAs aktsiad noteeritud pole.

    - Philips (PHG) kaupleb Euroopas alla, kuna kvartaliprognoosid oli oodatust ettevaatlikumad. Varud liiga kõrged.

    - Smith Barney alandas eile õhtul Sandiski (SNDK) reitingu Sell peale varasema Hold asemel. Läinud rong, siiski ma arvan.  

    QQQ puhul jälgiksin 10. okt gappi, mis ilmselt läheb täitmisele. Täna õhtul INTC ja YHOO. Analüütikud on viimased kaks nädalat korrutanud, et YHOO müüb ära isegi heade tulemuste peale. Saab näha!        

    Graafikud (Briefing.com):

  • SNDK on ülalmainitud downgrade peale täna taas -4.6% miinuses ning kaupleb $27.60 juures.

    Positiivne uudis straddle omanikele, hinnanguliselt võiks straddle kaubelda $3.50 juures, seega 20% kasumis ning väikeste osade kaupa võib juba kasumivõtule mõelda.

  • Turud on nafta hinna tõusule üsna hästi vastu pidanud, kuid viimastel päevadel dollar päeva kohta kerkinud hind hakkab juba närvilisust juurde tekitama. Täna vallutati 54 dollari tase ning süüdi on selles Nigeerias põlevad naftajuhtmed. S&P 500 futuurid on 6,5 punkti miinuses, Nasdaqi futuurid on 14 punkti miinuses.

    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) kvartalitulemused olid oodatust tugevamad nink kasumit teeniti aktsia kohta 78 senti ehk 2 senti oodatust rohkem, käive kasvas aastaga 10.5% 11,55 miljardile. Aktsia eelturul siiski vaid kerges plussis.

    Järelturul avaldavad majandustulemused Intel (INTC), mis kaupleb 52 nädala põhjade lähedal, kuid pooljuhtide sektorit peavad paljud ikka veel ülehinnatuks. Teiseks oluliseks tulemuste avaldajaks on Yahoo (YHOO), mille aktsia kaldub pigem 52 nädala tippude suunas.
  • Rev Shark:

    "No great man ever complains of want of opportunity."

    -- Ralph Waldo Emerson

    Regardless of the state of the market, earnings season always offers up some trading opportunities. The action over the last few days has been shaky at best, and futures are down sharply this morning, but as earnings reports roll in, there are likely to be some good opportunities for the trader looking for action.

    Earnings season is the time when expectations are forced to come to grips with reality. Invariably, investors have been either too optimistic or too pessimistic. Stock prices will quickly adjust to reflect actual circumstances, and therein lies opportunity.

    Many folks make the mistake of assuming that they have to correctly anticipate earnings and hold a position to profit. In many cases the market is priced inefficiently long enough to allow good entries even after news has been released. This is particularly true in smaller-cap stocks that are under-followed by Wall Street analysts. The market is often very slow in recognizing when a small company has produced a stellar quarter and is likely to continue doing so in the future. These are the stocks that tend to be the biggest winners in the next quarter.

    The big-cap stocks like Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq), which report tonight, set the tone for the overall market during earnings season, but small-cap stocks with big surprises and strong guidance will pop up and will become the new momentum leaders. Earnings season helps clarify the leaders and the laggards, and within that process lies great opportunity for the astute trader.

    We have a weak open on the way. Crude oil broke over the $54-a-barrel level in overnight trading, and that is keeping the pressure on, but the primary culprit appears to be European chipmaker and consumer products manufacturer Philips Electronics (PHG:NYSE), which warned of flat chip sales, margin pressures and inventory issues. Investors are concerned that this may bode poorly for Intel tonight and for other chip companies that report earnings soon. In addition, Merrill Lynch (MER:NYSE) reported earnings and they look lackluster.

    Overseas markets were very weak, and we have a sharply lower open on the way. We'll see if the mood improves as investors look forward to earnings tonight, but right now they are obviously concerned. The good news is that expectations are going to be fairly low, and that may help the market find some support.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    TZOO +8.7% (reports Q3), JNJ +0.4% (beats by $0.02, beats on revs), MKTY +8.4% (wins two purchase orders from US Air Force), SOSA +5.3% (reports Q3), DYAX +6.7% (co and GENZ announce fast track designation for DX-88), INFY +3.9% (beats by $0.02; guides Q3 above consensus), VITR +3.6% (selected by XO Communications), ALDN +2.1%... Under $3: XOMA +4.2% (co restructures collaboration agreement with MLNM).

    Gapping Down

    CTV -18% (revises Q3 below consensus, announces major cost reduction plan), HLIT -15% (preliminary results well below consensus), SNDK -4.2% (cut to Sell at Smith Barney), AMKR -10% (discloses informal SEC inquiry), NPSP -7.5% (Jefferies downgrade after co announces inconclusive results of acute migraine study), CCBL -6.9% (guides SepQ below consensus), GLDB -6.3% (terminates merger agreement with Silver Acquisition), STT -5.6% (misses by $0.10, light on revs), LEXR -5.5% (in sympathy with SNDK), FRO -4.9% (IBD mention as high-volume sell-off), ISON -4.5% (profit taking after 44% move yesterday), CRXL -4.1% (WSJ mention), IMOS -4.1% (continues weakness from yestreday), PHG -3.9% (makes cautious comments), NVDA -3.7% (CSFB lowers ests), NSM -3.4%, BOBJ -2.6% (Bloomberg.com reports co says revs below consensus), CHIR -2.6% (receives grand jury subpoena), BRCM -2.4% (DecQ looks tougher - CIBC).
  • Tänane suur gap alla paistab turuosaliste jaoks tulevat üllatusena - eile keegi väga aktiivselt shortimas ei olnud. Seega ei pruugi me täna kohest kiiret põrget näha.
  • Päris vaimukas:

    14:43 BABY Natus Medical -- New High Profile (7.45 +0.39)

    Natus Medical, which is making a new 3-year high today, is a stock traders love for an odd reason. When Internet search company Mamma.com (MAMA) runs, BABY is picked up as a "secondary" play although there is absolutely no relation to what the cos do. For comic relief, POP, SISI and BRO sometimes join the family fun.... Natus Medical makes products for the detection of common disorders in newborns such as hearing screeners. It's a small co with a $127 mln market cap. Sales growth has been accelerating and it has posted yoy sales growth for 8 consecutive quarters. For the first half of 2004, revs increased 24% to $17 mln. And it's on the verge of generating positive cash flow as the co expects to report a Q3 profit of $0.03-$0.04 and $0.07-$0.09 in Q4. In the meantime, investors can find comfort in a balance sheet with no debt and $38.6 mln in cash/inv, or $2.26 per share. Mkt cap $127 mln, float 11.2 mln, avg volume 117K.
  • Intel siis väljas poole tunni pärast. My bet? Results in-line/veidi paremad. Guidance no-so-ok.

    sB
  • Intel Corporation today announced third-quarter revenue of $8.5 billion, up 5 percent sequentially and up 8 percent year-over-year. Third-quarter net income was $1.9 billion, up 8 percent sequentially and up 15 percent year-over-year. Earnings per share were 30 cents, up 11 percent sequentially and up 20 percent from 25 cents in the third quarter of 2003.
  • 16:15 INTC sees Q4 revs of $8.6-9.2 bln vs $9.07 bln consensus

    16:15 INTC prelim $0.26 ex-items vs $0.27 consensus; revs of $8.5bln vs $8.45 bln consensus

    INTC on 60-70 plussis.

    Pulled a Micron (MU). Guidance sucks but expected.

    sB
  • When Internet search company Mamma.com (MAMA) runs... MAMA JA BABY astuvad eelturul jälle ühte sammu. Mõlemad + 8%
  • Siiski:
    MAMA üleval Yahoo tulemuste peale ja BABY üleval Rothi upgrade peale.
    BABY Natus Medical upped to Strong Buy from Buy at Roth, tgt goes to $10.50 from $8.50

    Yahoo pelae üleval ka ASKJ ja GOOG.

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