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Börsipäev 27. oktoober

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  • USA futuurid on päeva alustamas kergelt negatiivselt. Kestvuskaupade tellimused tulid välja oodatust natuke nõrgemad (0.2% vs 0.5%) ja naftahind püsib endiselt kõrgemal $55 tasemest. Kuulda on ennustusi hinna jõudmisest järgmisel aastal $80 väärtusele. Kindlamat suunda annavab ehk täna strateegiliste varude statistika. Dollar endiselt euro suhtes nõrk.

    Majandusuudiste kohapealt võivad turgu täna mõjutada ka new home sales statistika (ootused 1150K juures). Tulemas ka Fedi Beige Book.

    Tänast tulemusteparaadi juhivad Procter & Gamble (PG) ja Boeing (BA). Boeing lõi käibeprognoosi ja kasumit, lisaks näeb tulevikku positiivsena. Põhjuseks ka madalamad maksudest tulenevad kulud. Aktsia eelturul 2% kõrgemal. PG ületas samuti ootusi.

    Adobe (ADBE) tõstis neljanda kvartali kasumiprognoose. Kaupleb eelturul 1.4-protsendilises plussis. Tugevust näitavad ka Hiina tehnoloogiafirmad SINA (+19%) ja SOHU (+13%). Storage tarkvara firma Veritas (VRTS) tubli kasumi tõttu eelturul +6%.

    Rev Shark:

    "Success is more a function of consistent common sense than it is of genius."

    -- An Wang

    What has made this market particularly difficult in recent weeks is its inconsistency. Rallies have been followed by failures, and failures by recoveries. Positive technical action has failed to produce sustained momentum. A rotation into new market leaders such as technology looks like it is beginning and then it stalls and old leaders such as homebuilders and steel reassert themselves.

    If you have a time frame of more than a day or two, that makes for some tough trading. The gains you earn one day are given back the next. We saw last week that it can be extremely dangerous to trust that a big move, on strong breadth and heavy volume, will continue. The market has another opportunity today to see if it can build on strong technical action but there are some good reasons to be cautious.

    First, oil has continued to hover over the $55 area. The market ignored the rise yesterday but it is likely to remain a focus, particularly as Department of Energy inventory numbers are considered later today. Oil is a convenient and obvious excuse for selling and until there is some softening it will continue to be a major obstacle for this market.

    Second, one of the other major concerns at the moment is that October is the fiscal year-end for many large funds and some of the action may be nothing more than window dressing. Even if funds are not inclined to manipulate closing prices, many market participants turn window dressing into a self-fulfilling prophecy. If a large contingent of the market thinks window dressing is going to take place, then they will anticipate that action and create it on their own.

    Another factor that led to the rally yesterday was some relief over Eliot Spitzer announcing that he will not be seeking criminal charges against insurance companies involved in the bid-rigging scandal. That news helped boost financial stocks and was a big factor in the point rise in the DJIA. However, it may not serve as a continuing catalyst for the market.

    We had some good earnings reports last night but mostly in secondary stocks that will not have any major market impact. There is some aggressive trading in sectors such as Internet retail and we are likely to see pockets of that again today, particularly in the Chinese Internet stocks, which posted good earnings last night.

    Early indications are mixed. We have durable goods and new-home sales reports coming up that will affect the mood but it is oil and window dressing that are the main factors at work now.

  • New 52-Week Highs

    SINA +19% (beats by $0.04, guides up for Q4 revs; up in sympathy: ASIA +18%, SOHU +13%, NTES +10%, TOMO +7.8%, CHINA +7.1%), INCX +18% (carryover from 30% move yesterday and interest in Internet stocks from SINA's report, same with SHOP +4% after 10pt move in IPO debut), VRTS +6.1% (reports Q3), CVTX +10% (beats by $0.15, CIBC upgrade), CECO +8.8% (beats by $0.02; guides up for Q4, Y04), ISON +13% (names its director of commercialization for Homeland Security and Defense division), MTSX +6.7%, ATML +6.4% (reports Q3), WLDA +5.4%, TASR +3.7% (devices approved for use in Finland and Sweden), OPWV +3.7% (reports SepQ), VWPT +3.6%, ONXX +3.3% (granted Orphan Drug designation), GRMN +2.7% (reports Q3), PHRM +2.6% (Bear Stearns upgrade)..... Under $3: ZTEL +29% (announces 14-state commercial agreement), AAII +28% (to get one-time payment from Aventis, as FDA approves Allegra-D 24 hour tabs), AATK +11%.

    Gapping Down

    Down on weak earnings/guidance: ZRAN -20%, AFL -8.5% (also multiple downgrades), LVLT -8.4%, TTMI -7.9%, ISIS -7.8%, WBSN -6.3%, UTSI -5.2%, BBI -4.1%, XRAY -4%, ZBRA -3.2%... Other News: IMOS -6.5% (announces $50 mln convertible offering), MACE -5.5% (profit taking after 84% move yesterday).
  • Don't buck the seasonals! This week is one of the best weeks of the year, every year. The funds are done locking in their gains and losses. The mutual fund fiscal years are over. They are putting money to work furiously, without regard to the externals -- politics, oil, whatever -- as they always do this week.

    huhh, peaks vist tänulik olema, et jalgu ei jäänud

    sB
  • Jah, saabus see kiiremini tagasi kui oleks oodanudki, Dow viimase kahe päevaga 260 punkti tõusnud.

    Üks USA treider arvas selle peale, et viimase 5.a. parim börsiga seotud äriidee oli aastal 1998 "Dow 10000" nokamütside tootmise alustamine - siiani saab müüa.
  • jah, pealegi vallutatakse nüüd uusi turge, kui siiamaani oli mütsil edu pullide seas, siis karude hulgas need alles hakkavad moodi minema ...
  • septembri lõpus oli DOW 10078, seega kui kahe päeva pärast oleme tänasega samal tasemel, siis aktsiaturu põhjal on USA-le uus president tulemas
  • ei käi küll teemaga kaasa, aga küsimus selline , kas www.optionsxpress.com näitab aktsiahindu reaalajas?
  • 2. september 10290. mõned päevad on veel aega rallida. aga ilmselt ei lähe bush nagunii valgest majast kuhugi.
  • Homme siis naz-il tähtis päev. 1971
  • Läheb see Bush sama rada nagu ta vanameeski ja rehaks on jälle Iraak, mille otsa valusalt astutakse. Tulevad demokraadid ja buum saabub seega 6-7 aasta pärast ehk aastal 2010, mull lõhkeb 2012

    Nostratamus
  • ei. bush ei tohikski ju valges majas olla. samal pettusemaigulisel viisil, kuidas ta ennast sinna sebis, ta kahjuks sinna ka jääb.
  • mrtn,
    Sa oled kindlasti ka uks nendest, kes utleb, et Erki Nool pole oige olumpiavoitja, et kettaringis oli TEGELIKULT ikka uleastumine?
    Krt need moorlased ei lase uldse elada enam, koik kohad nende jama tais:(
  • Hakkab tulema...

    Kui USA presidendivalimisteni on veidi üle nädala, on kümnes otsustavas osariigis viiest juhtpositsioonil John Kerry ja neljas George Bush.
    Avaliku arvamuse küsitluse põhjal võidab senaator Kerry Wisconsinis, Colorados, Michiganis, Minnesotas ja Pennsylvanias. Bushi toetajaid on rohkem Florida, Nevada, Ohio ja New Mexico osariigis. Neis võtmeosariikides läheb jagamisele 131 valijamehe kohta, teatab Reuters.


  • Jah, spunk. Floridas "võitis" Bush ka eelmine kord ju.
  • ohios on nii mõneski maakonnas juba tunduvalt rohkem registreeritud valijaid, kui üldse valimisõiguslikke kodanikke.
  • Suffiks,
    Minu point on: leppige reaalsusega, oleksid ei loe, pole motet tagantjargi soiguda.
    Kui Bush sai presidendiks, siis tuleb seda aktsepteerida.
  • Fakti, et Georg W. Bush on USA president, tuleb muidugi aktsepteerida. Nii nagu on fakt see, et nafta hind on sel aastal oluliselt tõusnud, on ka see selge fakt: Georg W.Bush ON USA president! Samas nii nagu kõrge kütuse hinnaga ei pea rahul olema, ei pea ka USA riigipeaga ilmtingimata rahul olema! Igaljuhul ei poolda Bushi tagasivalimist.

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