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Börsipäev 1. nov

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  • Tänane hommik endaga eriti suuri uudiseid kaasa ei too. Futuurid on veidi miinuses, kuid trend on kosumise poole. Dollar on põhjadest veidi kosunud. Nafta veidi rohelises, kuid tunduvalt allpool viimase aja tippe.

    - LHV Pro valik Vicuron Pharma (MICU) on väljas kergelt positiivsete katsetulemustega oma mõlema III faasi ravimidakandidaadi puhul. Analüütikud on muutumas positiivsemaks MICU suhtes, mille tõestuseks on ka LHV Pro all olev üks research.

    - Eric Mindich (36), varasem Goldman Sachsi whiz-kid (noorim Goldmani partner) on alustamas oma hedge-fundi, mille mahuks on $3.5 miljardit. See on suurim hedge-fund start-up läbi ajaloo. Näitab, et hedge-fundi äri täiel rinnal buumi suunas liikumas. LHV Pro all on ka üks selleteemaline valik.

    - Meedia raporteerib, et Yahoo (YHOO) võib olla CBS Marketwatchi (MTKW) ostjate esireas. Ilmselt oma aktsiate eest ostetakse.

    - DoubleClick (DCLK) on ennast või vähemalt osad oma üksused müüki pannud. Firma on palganud Lazard Freres & Co ennast selles abistama. Huvitav on jälgida, mida aktsia selle peale teeb. Ma ise pakkusin, et tekib lühiajaline ostusurve, kuid Ilves kõrval väitleb tulihingeliselt languse kasuks. VCLK and AQNT on lähemad konkurendid. Bännerireklaamid on oma aja ära elanud või mis?

    sB
  • 06:54 PSFT Oracle boosts offer for PeopleSoft to $24/share (20.77 )

    Co calls bid of $24, up from $21, its "best and final offer". Oracle drops some conditions, wants majority of PeopleSoft shareholders to tender, wants co to drop poison pill and Delaware law obstacles. Deal is set to expire Nov. 19.
  • DCLK; see oli enne seda, kui kuulsin, et strateegiliste alternatiivide hulka kuuluvad ka aktsiate tagasiostmine ja dividend. Üldiselt, kui firma ennast müüki paneb, siis n'itab see, et nad ise kah ei usu oma äri edukusse. Kes peaks neid siis turuhinnast kallimalt tahtma?
  • Annaks ehk keegi infi mis seal Helsingi hindadega on? Kella 12-st enam edasi ei lähe.
  • 05:39 MRK Merck: E-mails suggest Merck knew Vioxx's dangers at early stage -- WSJ (31.31 )

    According to the WSJ, when Merck pulled its painkiller Vioxx off the mkt in Sept, CEO Raymond Gilmartin said the co was "really putting patient safety first." He said the study findings prompting the withdrawal, which tied Vioxx to heart-attack and stroke risk, were "unexpected." But internal Merck e-mails and marketing materials as well as interviews with outside scientists show that the co fought forcefully for years to keep safety concerns from destroying the drug's commercial prospects. Merck's first worry, in the mid-to-late 1990s, was that its drug would show greater heart risk than cheaper painkillers that were harsh on the stomach but were believed to reduce the risk of heart attacks. Several co officials discussed in e-mails how to design a study that would minimize the unflattering comparison, even while admitting to themselves that it would be difficult to conceal. By 2000, one e-mail suggests Merck recognized that Vioxx didn't merely lack the protective features of old painkillers but that something about the drug itself was linked to an increased heart risk. On March 9, 2000, the co's powerful research chief, Edward Scolnick, e-mailed colleagues that the cardiovascular events "are clearly there" and called it a "shame." He compared Vioxx to other drugs with known side effects and wrote, "there is always a hazard." But the co's public statements after Dr. Scolnick's e-mail continued to reject the link between Vioxx and increased intrinsic risk.


    MRK -7%
  • Gapping Up

    PSFT +12% (ORCL raises offer for PSFT to $24), AAII +21% (expands line of credit by $30 mln), DCLK +9.3% (hires Lazard Freres to explore strategic options), NSTK +9% (gets FDA approvable letter), SUPG +4.9% (announces submission of Dacogen NDA), ISON +4.8% (CEO gives online interview), ARDI +4% (momentum from 40% move on Friday), IVX +3.3% (gets approval for HFA formulation of asthma drug albuterol), ZRAN +3.3% (Needham upgrade), TASR +2.4% (demonstrates Taser Anti-Personnel Munition), AAPL +1.9% (estimates, target raised at Bear Stearns and UBS)... Stem cell stocks are strong ahead of tomorrow's election: STEM +9.4%, ASTM +9.2%, GERN +3.8%.

    Gapping Down

    IVX -8.8% (stock moved up on approval for albuterol, but then fell when co reported Q3 results), LTXX -8.5% (guides OctQ lower), MAGS -6.9% (reports Q3), MRK -5.8% (E-mails suggest Merck knew Vioxx's dangers at early stage - WSJ), MAXM -5.6% (negative Phase III trial), ACDO -5.6% (reports SepQ, misses by $0.03), WZEN -5.1%, ADSX -2.8% (ID chip may not be a money maker -- NY Times), PAYX -2.7% (Pru downgrade), SOHU -2% (hearing stock downgraded by CSFB Asia).
  • Rev Shark:

    "It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first."

    -- Ronald Reagan

    The presidential election is neck and neck, with the finish line in sight. Usually the stock market dislikes that sort of uncertainty but the indices, particularly the Nasdaq, have been holding up well in recent days. The Wall Street Journal opined this morning that the weakness in the DJIA through October was the pricing in of a Kerry win but that doesn't explain the solid action in the Nasdaq and technology stocks.

    I suspect that, even though Wall Street has a bias for President Bush, the pain of a win by Kerry would be ameliorated to a great degree by the likelihood that the Republicans will have firm control of the Senate. There is little chance of pushing through tax hikes and new spending with the opposing party in control, especially after a bitter election. Gridlock helps produce certainty and Wall Street always prefers that.

    The biggest immediate risk for the market right now is that we not have a clear winner on Wednesday morning. A court battle would be the worst possible thing, not only for the stock market, but the entire country. With the distinct possibility of a uncertain result in the election, any clear result, even a Kerry win, may give us a little relief bounce.

    The indices are all at interesting junctures on a technical basis, and they have been struggling to overcome a downtrend line of resistance that has been in place since the first of the year. The key areas of resistance are 1137 for the S&P 500, 1985 for the Nasdaq and 1497 for the Nasdaq 100.

    The Nasdaq looks particularly well poised for a run at cracking the 10-month-long downtrend, and it has been consolidating just below resistance levels for nearly a month now. There have been signs of rotation out of defensive groups such as commodities, industrials and oil into technology in the past few weeks.

    That rotational pressure, combined with a fairly good technical setup and positive end-of-the-year seasonality sets the stage for a strong move in the next couple months. The recent flurries of wild momentum in stocks like Google (GOOG:Nasdaq) also is a sign that buyers may be ready to become more aggressive.

    The one thing that makes me most cautious about a year-end run in the Nasdaq is a fairly high level of bullishness. There may already be quite a few bulls and that reduces the potential buying pressure if we do start to see more upside pressure. On the other hand, there are plenty of things for this market to worry about, such as the slow economic growth and the situation in Iraq. There is plenty of material from which to construct a wall of worry and maybe that is more important that the sentiment polls.

    We are starting off the week with slightly positive indications, although crude oil is moving up again on strike concerns in Nigeria. European markets are acting well with strength in financials and energy but Asia is mixed. We have some economic data coming up, most notably the ISM index at 10 a.m. ET, which will receive some attention.

    The market is likely to stay fairly quiet as we wait for the election results. Trading opportunities are likely to be of the very short-term variety for now.

  • DCLK kenasti üleval. Kohe näha, kellel on turukogemust:)

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