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Börsipäev 11. nov

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  • Tänane hommik eriti uudiseid ei too:

    - Banc of America alandab Hewlett-Packardi (HPQ) reitingu Osta pealt Neutraalse peale, nentides, et nende arvates ei suuda firma 2005. aastal kasumimarginaale praegustel tasemetel hoida. Konkurents. Ka on aktsiad jõudnud nende $19.50 hinnasihi juurde. Mitte just major call. HPQ avaldab järgmisel nädalal.

    - Advanced Micro (AMD) reiting läheb Merrill Lynch poolt Osta peale varasema Neutraalse asemel. Usub, et kasumimarginaalid peaksid lähiajal paisuma. Intel (INTC) on viimasel ajal kuidagi jänni jäänud tehnoloogilise poole pealt ning AMD turuosa võtnud. Samas AMD aktsiad on juba 60% põhjast tõusnud. Mitte just major call.

    - Peoplesoft (PSFT) lükkas Oracle (ORCL) $24 pakkumise jälle tagasi ning pakkus välja üpris naeruväärsed 2005. aasta prognoosid. 19. nov aegub Oracle pakkumine ning paremini informeeritud turuosalised väidavad, et PSFT õiglane hind ilma ORCL pakkumiseta oleks $10-15 vahel.

    - Dendreon (DNDN) kukkus eile peale tulemusi. Ühtegi otsest põhjust ma kukkumisest ei näe. Ilmselt soovisid mõned turuosalised kasumit võtta. Üks positiivne uudis siiski oli. Nimelt teatas DNDN, et on võtnud müügijuhi nr. 2 kohale James Caggiano, kes tuli firmasse Abbotist (ABT). Enne seda oli mees töötanud 11 aastat Jaapani TAP-s, kus tegeles Luproni müügiga ($1 mld käibega eesnäärmevähi ravim). Tundub, et DNDN on ehitamas head müügimeeskonda toetamaks Provenge müüki. Järgmiseks suuremaks katalüsaatoriks on ilmselt 18. nov analüütikute päev. Seal antakse lisainfot katsetulemuste kohta ning võibolla teatatakse ka suure partneri leidmisest. Short interest on ikka 25% ringis. Soovitan.
  • PSFT liikumine võib üsna huvipakkuv olla, mulle tundub selline pimesi Oracle (ORCL) vastu võitlemine üsna totter, pigem olid seal juhtkonna isiklikud huvid mängus. Tahaks küll näha, mis näoga juhtkond aktsionäridele otsa vaatab, kui Oliveri pakutud $10-15 vahemik teostub.
  • kristjan. ma ei usu ,et ta sulle näole annab:-}
  • Ega väikeaktsionärid tõesti neid nägusid uurima ei saa, suured fondid kindlasti. Neid eelkõige silmas pidasingi.
  • Kes need "paremini informeeritud turuosalised" on?
  • Cody Willard:

    So what issues, what data, what newsflow do we have to parse through today? Oil's continuing its slide from the bubblicious levels it had reached this autumn. You have to guess that it's not heading straight down back to the $30s -- even as I figure that is where it's eventually headed, as I've long said.

    AMD catches another upgrade -- Intel's competition is coming hard. Microsoft's supposedly going to kill Google now with a new Internet search engine -- that's news? (I'll have much more on this later today.) The Fed raised rates to 2% yesterday.

    The dollar's been probing new lows against the euro and other currencies. Lots of buzz in the bear camps about how oil might be priced in euros rather than dollars from now on. You mean, it's possible that at some point in the future some countries in Europe might actually prefer to be more closely associated with the euro than the dollar? And some purchases around the world might also be done in currencies other than the U.S. dollar? Further, that if that were to happen, it's possible that there might be some implications for the dollar's value vs. those currencies, and if those implications were to unravel in a worst-case scenario, stocks might crash? All this is true. But I'm not sure it's an investment thesis.

    Meanwhile, it's been little covered outside of the insightful analysis from MS Howells, but corporate and junk bond spreads have been collapsing, meaning that the people who hold the billions and billions of corporate debt are showing increasing confidence in the earnings power of corporate America.

    That dynamic can work to fuel a virtuous cycle of more spending, more stock buybacks, more money being put into the economy, and therefore more growth and more earnings and so on and so forth. Something to keep an eye on, as strong action in corporate bonds has presaged this latest rally and the other strong rallies that we've had in the past couple of years.

    Overall earnings in the tech sector for the just reported third quarter were, overall, pretty fair. Some reports, guidance and calls, like at Juniper and Apple, were very strong. Others, like JDSU and Motorola, were OK. And yet others like NSM and Cisco were poor. It's why I keep writing about how you have to do your homework and then double down and do more homework because there's good money to be made, despite the overall flattish action in the broader markets this year.

    Readers know that I was steadily scaling into long-dated calls in tech names throughout mid- and late summer. I've got April 10 calls and January 15 calls in AMD for example. When I bought them, AMD was around $12-$13, so the 10s were in the money and the 15s were out of the money. They're both now in the money as the stock is at $17 and change, above both strike prices.

    So I've now shorted some common stock on about a 1-to-8 ratio to those calls, so I'm still quite net long AMD, but if the stock drops below $15 again, those calls will stop falling in value, but the short will continue to make me money. That's sort of a snapshot of why I keep saying I'm allowing the calls to work to make me longer as they go up. I'm still bullish, just not quite as bullish as I was in August or September when prices were lower.

    Net long AMD, INTC, JNPR, AAPL, JDSU

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Oracle versus Peoplesoft on näide kuidas isiklik vaen takistab äri ajamist. Peoplesofti üks juhte oli varem tööl Oracles ja sealt siis ka negatiivne suhtumine.
  • Gapping Up

    ANGN +33% (momentum from 137% move yesterday), CLWT +25% (appears to be a momentum move on its small float of 1.4 mln shares), GY +19% (Steel Partners to acquire GY), HLYW +12% (BBI confirms interest in acquiring the co), NGEN +8.1% (announces clinical diagnostic to simultaneously detect multiple respiratory viruses), TASR +6% (to debut new cartridge), INOD +5.2% (reports Q3 results), BEAS +3.8% (ORCL may pursue others such as BEAS if PSFT falls through - Bloomberg.com), SEBL +3% (same), MAGS +3.3%, RIMM +2.6% (broker tgt increase to $100)... Under $3: RAND +79% (files 10-Q, but may be momo play on its 3.7 mln share float), FLYI +18% (Merrill upgrade), CMGI +4.9%.

    Gapping Down

    KO -2.1% (lowers growth rate targets - AP), PSFT -1.3% (rejects ORCL bid), TUTR -15% (guides lower, Piper downgrade), WEBM -10% (delays 10-Q filing), TIF -9.7% (misses by $0.05, guides Y05 below consensus), CATT -9.5% (shareholders to sell 950K shares), GERN -8.6% (to sell about 6.5 mln shares), MOLX -7.5% (delays 10-Q filing), FCEL -7.5% (announces offering), SBUX -3.3% (reports SepQ), CAB -3.3% (prices 10.5 mln share offering), VCMP -28% (reports Q3)... Recent momentum favorites are pulling back, moving on to other small float stocks - see Gapping Up: MAHI -17.4%, ANLT -6%.
  • Nortel (NT) lükkas oma 10-Q avaldamise edasi - ei saa nad ikka oma raamatupidamist korda.

    Nagu esimese kukkumise peale $7 juurest ütlesin - hoidke parem eemale, raamatupidamisskandaalid kummitavad kaua.
  • TASR +7.5% taas, kuna nad teatasid, et nende mingi relv laseb 21 jala asemel 25 jala kaugusele :) Haip ruulib.
  • PIXR prelim $0.38 vs $0.24 consensus; revs of $44.5 mln vs $31.78 mln consensus

    Tegu siis selle nädala straddle ideega, lõpetas päeva +2,5% plussiga, nüüd juba +7,5%
  • PIXR on praeguseks kull jarelturu tipust paar dollarit tagasi andnud, kuid see palju ei loe, turg on ohuke.
    Homme tuleb ilmselt huvitav paev, ise ootan ka moningaid upgrade ning ehk ka uut 52 W high. Kui $85st ule saab, siis laheb huvitavaks...

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