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  • Rev Shark:

    All Trends Come to an End
    12/7/04 8:46 AM ET

    "It is a good thing to learn caution from the misfortunes of others."

    -- Publilius Syrus

    As the market continues to plod steadily upward it is very easy be lulled into feeling that the buoyant action will continue forever. For months now the whiny, pessimistic bears have been yammering about all the reasons this market can't go higher -- and they have been dead wrong. Why should we start taking them seriously now when they have be so wrong for so long?

    The most dangerous words on Wall Street are that "it's different this time."

    It is never different. The market will always and forever experience alternating periods of advances and declines. The current rally will come to an end just like all of the rallies that have gone before it.

    Despite the inevitability of trend shifts there are always market participants who fail to learn from the misfortune visited upon those who were unprepared for such an event in the past. Although they know it will happen and are familiar with the stories of those who were unable to adjust to a changing market, they allow inertia or inattention or just plain blind hope to leave them confused and trapped when the current cycle comes to an end.

    The important thing is not that you act in anticipation of the end of the rally but that you be mentally and emotionally prepared to deal with it when it does occur. Learn from the misfortunes of those who allowed their bullish or bearish biases to keep them from entertaining the fact that in the stock market all trends eventually come to an end.

    The current market continues to show few signs of failing. We have struggled a bit in recent days but hardly enough to be considered a pullback or even a consolidation. Until there are further signs of technical weakness there is no reason to act in a bearish manner. What we do need to do is have a plan in mind of what actions we are going to take when the rally does falter. What stocks are we going to continue to hold? Are we going to put on some shorts? What sectors are likely to suffer the most or the least? Think those things through, and then when the market stumbles the battle is already half won.

    In the very early going crude oil is trading down a tad and futures are indicated a little higher. We have the productivity report coming up at 8:30 a.m. EST, which is fairly important, but not much other news on the agenda.

    Oil and the dollar continue to be the main driving forces at the moment on a macro level. On a micro level the main thing we need to watch is whether rotation into technology stocks, particular small-caps, continues in the wake of the upbeat mid-quarter report from Intel (INTC:Nasdaq).

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    ABIX +55% (announces results from testing of the RapidCool product line), GDT +8.5% (JNJ in talks to buy GDT - NY Times), ESLR +25% (unveils thin wafer technology), RCKY +19% (to acquire EJ Footwear Group), RCO +23% (momentum from 192% move yesterday), CIPH +20% (mentioned in a WSJ article), HUGO +9.4% (confirms major coal system in southern Mongolia), CMTL +8.7% (beats by $0.14), LVLT +8.6% (inks deal with Comcast), IIJI +6.3%, BIOM +5.6% (extends recent momentum), NVDA +5.5% (inks joint GPU development for Sony), CEGE +5.5% (reports encouraging clinical data), IDBE +4.9% (extends recent momentum), CRDN +4.4% (to join the S&P SmallCap 600), CMGI +4.4% (reported Q1 intraday yesterday), SIRI +4.1% (announces Toyota deal), ADSX +4.1%, ISON +3.7% (meets with investors), XMSR +3.4% (Toyota deal), SRVY +3.3% (prices 6 mln share secondary at $18.16), RHAT +3%, UTIW +2.9% (beats by $0.06), CL +1.5% (announces restructuring details, layoffs).... Under $3: VSNT +61% (signs multi-year contract with PeopleSoft), GNVC +12% (receives National Eye Institute grant), MAXM +5.8% (bounces from 18% drop yesterday), GNTA +2.4% (ASH oresentations affirm importance of Genasense target in CLL).

    Gapping Down

    AGEN -13.6% (UBS downgrade with a $5 tgt), SIPX -12% (CEO resigns), CHIC -10.2% (lowers guidance below consensus; BofA downgrade), FCEL -8.6% (started with a Sell at Smith Barney; tgt $7), VSTA -7.2% (reports Q3), DBRN -6.8% (announces $100 mln convertible notes offering), EGHT -3.6%, GORX -3% (director resigns), TASR -2.2%, AMD -1.7% (two downgrades).
  • Üsna huvitav lugemine neile, kes armastavad toolimängu. St toolidele istumine ja ühe tooli pidev äratõmbamine võrreldav siis Siriuse, Taseri kui ka OmniVisioni ostmisega. Kes õigel ajal välja ei saa, jääb kõigest ilma. Jutt ise siin.
  • Cramerilt täna soovitus SIRI müüa- quote: "Mrs. Cramer's Rule: Bulls make money, bears make money and pigs? Well, they just get slaughtered."
  • Netflix upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Roth on valuation; tgt $11.60

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