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Börsipäev 15. detsember

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  • Rev Shark:

    Investors Add Another Brick in the Wall of Worry
    12/15/04 8:31 AM ET

    "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts."

    -- Bertrand Russell

    As the market continues to plod onward and upward, the frustration and anxiety among many market participants continues to build. Those who are in the market worry that we will be hit with a sudden correction while those who are on the sidelines grumble as the market moves higher without them. It is the fools and fanatics who believe nothing can go wrong who have been reaping the benefits of this rally.

    There is another irony at work as well. The more doubts there are about the market the more easily it can continue to plow ahead. Although there is much optimism about the market generally there is still sufficient worry and skepticism to keep investors from being fully committed to the market. This niggling doubt is what gives us the proverbial "wall of worry" to climb.

    The wall of worry is an important concept to understand. The theory is that as long as investors have a sufficient degree of uncertainty about the market they will keep some cash in reserve. That cash is then slowly invested as investors become frustrated about being left behind, and suppress their worries that they may be buying at the top. The slow, steady deployment of capital is the fuel that helps the market scale the wall of worry.

    The worries of the wise men is the very thing that helps the market continue to do the very thing they worry about most -- move steadily higher without a pause.

    The important idea to keep in mind is that the prevailing anxiety about the market must be high enough so that sufficient folks wonder if it really is prudent to be heavily invested. As long as a safety cushion of cash is kept in reserve by enough investors, the market will have the ability to keep on going higher.

    The market continues to present us with the same dilemma we have been facing for many weeks now. The technical action is very solid but we are extended. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find good entry points and we are forced to chase less-than-optimal situations.

    The market is set to open on the positive side once again. The FOMC interest rate decision was mostly shrugged off. The FON/NXTL merger is now a reality and that is helping matters. There are a couple of decent earnings reports from Lehman (LEH:NYSE) and Best Buy (BBY:NYSE) and overall the tone is positive.

    Overseas markets are generally positive even though the dollar is weak once again. Oil is inching up and gold is rallying on the pullback in the dollar. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST but there is little of interest on the economic calendar.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • EELN E-LOAN still significantly undervalued - Craig Hallum (3.39 )

    Craig Hallum notes that Capital One, which has been on the online acquisition warpath, announced another online acquisition after the close yesterday, which firm believes again demonstrates that EELN is simply an undervalued stock. Capital One bought eSmartloan for $155 mln in cash, and based on the $1 bln of home equity volume, the price paid would equate to approx $250 mln (approx $3.85/share) at EELN's current run rate of $1.6 bln in home equity volume. Yet home equity is only a portion of EELN's business (they estimate 33% in FY04). On top of home equity, to arrive at a valuation conclusion, investors should factor in $0.70 per share in cash, $110 mln in NOL carry-forwards, run-rate volumes of $1.3 bln in refinance, $1.5 bln in diversified mortgage, and $700 mln in auto loans. Reits Buy and $5 tgt.
  • Nexteli (NXTL) ja Sprindi (FON) ühinemise detailid hakkavad paika loksuma, uues firmas saavad endised aktsionärid osaluse pea võrdsetel alustel, lepingu suuruseks on 35 miljardit dollarit. Sündiva firma aastakäive on 40 miljardit dollarit ning firmal on 35 miljonit klienti.

    New Yorgi tööstussektori olukorda peegeldav Empire State Manufacturing indeks  kerkis detsembris 29.9 punktile, mis oli oodatust parem, kuid novembri näitajat samal ajal muudeti allapoole.

    PalmOne (PLMO) aktsia on eelturul üle 5% miinuses, firma finantsjuht Judy Burner lahkub ning asub tööle ScanDisk finantsjuhina.

    Eile 100 dollari juurde liikunud Reaserch in Motion (RIMM) aktsia avaneb 83 dollari juures, kohus korraldab uue istungi seoses kaebusega, et firma on rikkunud mitmeid patente.

    Lehman Bros (LEH) avaldas neljanda kvartali tulemused, mis ületasid tugevalt analüütikute ootusi (kasum aktsia kohta 1,96 dollarit, oodati 1,69 dollarit).

     

  • Gapping Up

    ELOS +6.6% (raises Q4 and FY05 guidance), LEN +4.3% (beats by $0.10, guides Y05 above consensus), BBY +3.4% (reports NovQ), WSSI +16% (CEO appears on CNBC regarding Firefox browser), WGRD +14% (to support MSFT's Network Access Protection technologies), ARIA +8.9% (started with a Buy at Suntrust; tgt $12), GEPT +8.9% (announces inaugural sale of next-generation digital video security technology), TBUS +8.7% (announces order), QLTI +6% (FDA approval), RHAT +4.3% (Merrill says SUNW should acquire co like RHAT), VISG +3.7% (gets $1.1 mln Florida contract), SINA +3.5%, MSTR +2.6% (SG Cowen defends after 15% drop yesterday), TWX +2% (NY Times reports co to settle charges with DoJ and SEC), SYMC +1.8% (Kaufman upgrade)... Under $3: STG +31% (secures contract with General Electric Power Systems), BCON +27% (carryover momentum from yesterday's rally), LOUD +20% (MTV deal), MCEL +16% (approved for Nasdaq SmallCap mkt), ADCT +11% (reports OctQ), NYER +8.1%.

    Gapping Down

    PLMO -5.3% (Lehman downgrade on Treo concerns), BMET -4% (reports NovQ), RIMM -3% (analysts cut estimates and targets on news that the US Appeals Court has ordered new hearings in the NTP lawsuit), CHRT -8% (guides for Q4), ENZN -5.6% (revises Y05 sales guidance for ABELCET), NT -2.4% (Berstein downgrade after co reports SepQ)... Under $3: GNTA -14% (to sell 15 mln shares), WAVX -9% (profit-taking after 80% move yesterday).
  • Kas EELN teeb täna oma 52 nädala tipu?
    Kirjutamise ajal juba tegi.
  • EELN $4.11, tana +21%.
    Hobuse kannatus tasus end ara:)
  • Kuhjaga siis, kui kannatada veel ühe aasta. Kindlasti tuleb ka tõsisemaid languspäevi. Et see aasta lõpp meeldiv oleks tegin täna siiski väikse müügi.
  • Vana kurat....ja mina olen siin kahevahel - kas lisada hetkehinnaga või mitte?! Lootsin 3 lähedalt osta ja eilsest orderi täitmisest jäi 11 senti puudu.. Aga nüüd vist läheb ikka küll kaua aega, kui 3ni kukub, kui üldsegi..

    Ainult 1 faktor takistab mind... tõuskiirus on olnud liiga-liiga suur ja lihtsalt ei luba ostuorderi nupule vajutada!

    Velvo, mis plaanid sul on. Sa oled kaua EELNis sees olnud. Kavatsed kindlasti juurde lisada, aga mis hinnaga loodad saada, kui küsida tohib?
  • kui tõusu kiirus on suur, siis tuleb ka osta kiiresti :-p
  • joel2
    Ise olen sellistest tõusudest kümneid kordi maha jäänud - muudkui vahid graafikut ja ei saa aru millal korrektsioon tuleb, et siseneda. Tegelikult häirib mind EELN selline tõus väga - see mis kiirelt tõuseb ka kiirelt langeb. Iseküsimus on millal saabuvad need pöörded. EELN tundub hetkel selline pump and dump aktsia olevat, et peab valmis olema ka suuremaks korrektsiooniks. Kahjuks ei ole minu prognoosid selle aktsia osas täkkesse läinud. Lootsi osa positsioonist soetada ka 1.60-ga, aga sinnani ei langenud ning arvasin, et hind jõuab 3.50-ni uue aasta ralliga ning ei tõtanud ka eriti juurde ostma - jäin aasta algust ootama. Praegu vaatan, et 3.80 juures püsib kenasti ning enamus, kes täna müüsid (ka mina), vaatavad pigem selles suunas, et mis hinnaga tagasi (ja juurde) osta. Mis põhiline - kui osta siis peab arvestama vähemalt aastase ajahorisondiga. Langus $3-ni ei oleks midagi imelikku.
    Täna teeb vist doji ja sisenemistasemeks oleks ideaalis $3.23, siis kannatab ka kümneprotsendilise languse 2.90-ni ära.
    Läheks jutu algusesse tagasi. Kõige parem "ravim" rongist mahajäämise vastu on otsida teisi potentsiaalikaid aktsiaid mida soetada. Näiteks jäin üleeile NFLX rongist maha (jälgisin liiga EELN liikumist), aga seda pingsamalt vaatan DNDN-i. Täna võtan pool kogust ja jään pikaajalise nägemusega: kui langeb allapoole $10 - ostan juurde, kui tõuseb üle $11 ostan juurde. Ka kauplejatele on seal tehniliselt tasemed hästi paigas.
  • EELN E-LOAN cut to Sell from Hold at Sandler O'Neil following 75% rally over last 2 months
  • 13:38 EELN E-LOAN cut to Sell from Hold at Sandler O'Neil following 75% rally over last 2 months (3.86 +0.47) -- Update --

    just in.

    Panen kohe Pro alla ka välja!

    sB
  • Üritavad nüüd hinda alla rääkida. Tahavad ka $3-ga osta?
  • Suured tänud Bettie! Selline kiire ja ajakohane informatsioon alati oodatud..
  • Veel üks aktsia, mida tahaksin mainida on Pharmos (PARS), LHV Pro valik. Ettevõtte peamine ravimikandidaadi Dexanabinol'i III faasi katsetulemused TBI (traumatic brain injury) peaksid välja tulema lähinädalatel. Tegemist on üliolulise sündmusega, sest õnnestumise korral oleks tegemist ainukese omataolise ravimiga turul, mille suurus kuni $1 miljard/aastas. See tähendaks aktsiahinnale esimese hooga kindlasti üle 100% tõusu ning hiljem veelgi. Ebaõnnestumise korral kaotus 60-70%. Ise pakuksin õnnestumise tõenäosuseks ca 65%. Riski/tulu mõlemat omajagu, ühesõnaga.

    Lihtsalt heads-up kommentaar, et selline sündmus lähiajal tulemas.


    sB

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