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Börsipäev 12. jaanuar

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  • Rev Shark:

    One Constant to Trading: Losing
    1/12/05 8:41 AM ET

    "No one that ever lived has ever had enough power, prestige, or knowledge to overcome the basic condition of all life -- you win some and you lose some."

    -- Ken Keyes, Jr.

    One of the most helpful things for market participants to realize about investing is that even the best traders and investors lose a lot. The most experienced market professionals in the world are wrong on a regular basis. It simply is the nature of investing.

    That doesn't seem a particularly insightful or astute observation. Obviously no one is perfect when it comes to the stock market, but if all you did was read the comments in the media from gurus and commentators you wouldn't know it.

    The folks who write and talk about the stock market rarely admit in public that they were wrong. Their timing might have been off or their original point misunderstood but they were seldom, if ever, incorrect. For the most part incorrect predictions are simply ignored in the hopes that they fade away and are forgotten.

    That isn't particularly surprising. No one likes to admit to mistakes, particularly in public, but it is a great disserve to investors because it fails to keep us aware of how common and unavoidable it is to lose when you are trading. Because we don't like to admit to mistakes, we don't see much helpful discussion about how to deal with them. The media stay focused on making predictions and seldom provide any assistance on what to do when the predictions are just plain wrong.

    I think it is very important for people like me who write about the stock market publicly to make note of the fact that we have made mistakes or errors. We resist doing it because we don't want to look stupid or foolish but not doing it a misrepresentation of the investing process. Losses shouldn't be perceived as a deep dark secret but just part of the cycle of investing.

    If you are confident that your investing or trading style will work in the long run it becomes much easier to deal with losses in the short term. I've been trading long enough and have had enough success over the years that a period of losses doesn't undermine my confidence. In fact, I often find it quite helpful psychologically to admit when I'm having a bad run rather than denying it or excusing it.

    The start of 2005 has certainly been a poor period of trading for me. The complete lack of strength so far caught me by surprise. This certainly isn't the first time I was positioned poorly, nor will it be the last time. What is important is that I don't let my error do too much harm. I take some losses, raise cash and stand aside until the market settles down and I can regroup.

    The point I'm making is that you should not be ashamed of losing. Proclaim it loudly and embrace it when it happens and then you can deal with it the way you should. Mistakes don't make you a bad trader but ignoring them does.

    We have a little bump on the good news and some upgrades of Intel (INTC:Nasdaq). It sure would be nice if we could count on that to end the recent downturn but that looks like a very dangerous assumption to make. The market needs to hold after the opening gap up and I suspect there will be some pretty heavy selling pressure caused by folks who have been trapped the past week or so.

    Overseas markets didn't do much and oil is up a bit, which is negative so we'll see how things go. I definitely would think very hard before chasing stocks on the open.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    INTC +3.2% (reports strong Q4; multiple upgrades; semi-equipment stocks up on higher cap-ex: ASMI +6.6%, NVLS +4.6%, ASML +4.4%, KLAC +3.6%, LRCX +3.2%, AMAT +2.9%), CNLG +17% (receives military contracts for communication security equipment; small float), SVA +16% (final Chinese FDA approval for vaccine), NEOF +11% (retains Merrill Lynch to explore strategic alternatives), DDDC +10% (target raised to $8 from $6 at Kaufman Bros), CAMP +9.1% (reports NovQ), CMOS +8% (sympathy with INTC), SONS +6.5%, EXEL +5.4% (SunTrust upgrade), TASR +4% (bounces from 30% drop yesterday), INFY +2.4% (reports DecQ, guides higher).... Under $3: OBCI +42%, FMTI +8% (gives 2005 rev guidance), ASTM +5% (stem cell momentum continues).


    Gapping Down

    UPS -4.1% (guides Q4 lower; CSFB and JP Morgan downgrades), MLNM -4.2% (Lehman downgrade), DNDN -4.2% (downgrades from UBS and Piper), SWIR -2.9% (continues recent weakness), ZRAN -1.9% (guides below consensus), GSK -1.5%.

  • Pullidele ma küll mingit võimalust ei näe. Ei näe mingit tugevust tulemas ka.
  • SureBet suutis augu pähe rääkida - pikk DNDNis.
  • Ma ka Oliveri soovituse peale pikk DNDN-s ... ainult et 11.17 pealt :(
  • Ühe väga hea biotech analüütiku kommentaar täna hommikul:

    "..We spoke with a couple of hedge fund analysts we have come to believe are smarter than average. The opinion is this phenomenon is likely due to having roughly 30 fewer patients in the 9902a trial. We're not so sure we agree (we have numbers we have to run before we finalize our opinion), but it was interesting to us this particular pair of analysts saw the 9902a data a non-event..."

    Long DNDN

    sB
  • Kas tõesti nõrgad käed lõpuks otsas ja tõuseme õhtuks veepinnale?
  • Oli ka viimane aeg, jaanuari efekt oli juba löögi all
  • 16:12 AAPL Apple Computer: note that co reported earnings last qtr about 30 min after the close-- Update --

    Stock currently trading up $0.05 in after hours.


    AAPL peab välja tulema küll päris tugevate numbritega, et ootusi täita. Ja kogu muu krempel a'la SGTL, ADBL, ECST, SHOP, MALL, NAPS, PLAY, SYNA liiguvad kaasa.

  • Kui oluline näitaja trade balance (avaldati täna enne turgu) turgudele on. Täna nagu küll mingit mõju ei osanud näha.
  • Apple Computer halted ahead of earnings
  • päris kindlasti omab see tähtsust sinu konto seisule kohalikus rahas. $ kukkus kiiresti 1.30 pealt 1.33 alla.
  • 16:30 AAPL prelim $0.70 vs $0.48 consensus; revs $3.49 bln vs $3.15 bln consensus
  • -$60.3 actual vs -$54.0B consensus oleks võinud ehk mingi reaktsioon ka tänasele turule olla. tundub, et kedagi eriti ei huvita see mõni B siia sinna.
  • 16:37 AAPL Apple Computer beats by $0.22, guides Q1 EPS, revs above consensus (65.46 +0.90)

    Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $0.70 per share, $0.22 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.48; revenues rose 74.0% year/year to $3.49 bln vs the $3.15 bln consensus. AAPL reports gross margins of 28.5% vs street expectation of 27%, reports 1.046 mln Mac units shipped during Q1, vs street expectation of 984k. Company issues upside guidance for Q2 (Mar), sees EPS of $0.40 vs. Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.33 on revs of $2.9 bln, consensus $2.749 bln.

    sB
  • Suht uskumatu, et niigi kõrgeid ootusi selliselt löödi. kauplemine algab 1 minuti pärast.
  • Hea näide sellest, kuidas hea ettevõtte jaoks on ülempiire raske tõmmata. Sellise mastaabiga ülespoole üllatust pole ammu näinud.
  • Küsimus selline, et kas USA after hoursi hinnamuutused ei kajastu LHV-s ning jõuavad alles järgmise börsipäeva alguseks? AAPL on nüüd after hoursil liikunud $72 peale (yahoo-st vaatan), aga LHV-s endiselt $65. Et kuidas nende hinnauuendustega siin lood ongi..?
  • Mis arvate, kus AAPL homme avaneb?
  • Ei pea vist eriline selgeltnagija olema, et ennustada neljapaevaks AAPL-le veel vahemalt 3-4% tousu, seda peamiselt seetottu, et analuutikutele meeldib peale selliseid tulemusi upgrade jagada, nii hea on olla tagantjarele tark:)

    Avaneb homme...$74-75?

    Spunk pikk AAPL.
  • aga ikkagi, ma ei saanud veel oma küsimusele (kas USA after hoursi hinnamuutused ei kajastu LHV-s ning jõuavad alles järgmise börsipäeva alguseks?) vastust.

    kas äkki oskab keegi vastata?
    antud hetkel näiteks eriti totter olukord tekkis pärast järelturgudel toimunud AAPL-i tõusu kui aktsia hind tegelikult oli juba kerkinud 72 dollari peale, virtuaalportfelli kaudu sai ikka vabalt 65-ga osta :) olgu virtuaalportfelliga kuidas on, aga hinnad võiksid sellegipoolest ju ka järelturgudelt kajastuda. vähemalt minule tundub, et need muutused jõuavad lhv-sse alles järgmise börsipäeva alguseks...
  • Astronaut, õigus, LHV lehel kajastatakse vaid regulaarse kauplemisaja infot.
    LHV Traderis on mõistagi hinnad ka väljaspool tavalist kauplemisaega, st eel- ja järelturult.
  • Suur börsi spetsialist Alvar pole ammu kommenteerind siin midagi ?
  • Astronaut, üsna selge standard on see, et süsteemides kasutatakse sulgemishindu, mitte järelturu viimaseid hindu - järelturu hinnad võivad vahest aiateibaid näidata. Vt. kasvõi Yahoo! või muud portaalid.

    Seetõttu ilmselt me ka neid portfellis ei kajasta, küll aga saab LHV Traderi vahendusel täies mahus ligipääsu eel - ja järelturule.
  • Turg pööras väga järsult alla. Ühtegi põhjust siiani ei näe, tundub et vana majandus (Dow) veab langust. Viimane on loetud minutitega kukkunud 75 punkti.
  • The world's #1 automaker GM, warned Thursday that its earnings would fall in '05 dragging the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P to their session lows respectively. Not helping matters, was an interday spike in oil prices of more than $2 in New York trade. A jump in jobless claims and a mixed retail report helped bonds though, while the dollar gained slightly against the euro
  • Okei, aitäh Kristjan ja jim vastuste eest.

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