LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 24-25. jaanuar - NFLX, SLAB rallivad

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Rev Shark:

    The Bottom Will Come, but Don't Try to Call It
    1/24/05 8:35 AM ET

    "My success just evolved from working hard at the business at hand each day."

    -- Johnny Carson

    Trading the stock market for a living is a bit different than most other jobs, because success isn't always a function of working hard and staying busy. In the stock market it is extremely important not to be active at certain times. When the market is not favoring your particular style of trading, staying busy and working hard at making trades is counter-productive.

    For ambitious, hard-driving investors who enjoyed a solid year in 2004, it can be tremendously frustrating to sit idly by as they wait for more favorable conditions. Many are intent on trying to catch the very moment that the market turns. They react swiftly to the first sign of improvement in the market action, and over and over again they end up being too early and are stopped out for another loss.

    The psychology of the stock market encourages us to be impatient in seeking out a bottom in the market. Most of us prefer to be active rather than sitting around doing nothing while we wait. The bias toward staying busy pushes us to act prematurely. "Boredom" trades are often a costly way to spend our time in a poor market environment.

    There are other factors at work that push investors to overanticipate market bottoms. First, traditional Wall Street has a strong bias toward keeping us fully invested. Folks who are holding cash are more inclined to withdraw it, and that is not something that mutual funds and brokerages want to see.

    Second, being a "master of market timing" is another reason many market participants err on the side of being too early. If you are going to nail the exact bottom of the market you have to be anticipatory. You can't be the "master of market timing" if you wait until there is a clear bottom in place and things have begun to turn back up.

    It is very tough for most of us to stay patient and resist this temptation. Serial "bottom-calling" becomes a plague in a market like this and can cost you a lot. It is extremely important to focus on protecting capital right now. If you are going to play the bottom-calling game then make sure you are very aggressive at cutting losses quickly.

    Sooner or later the market will turn back up and produce a sustained rally. When that happens there generally is plenty of time to get on board. More often than not the cost of being a little late to the party is far less than trying to catch the exact moment that it starts. Stay patient. This market is not healthy.

    Once again we have a very tentative start to the day. Oil is trading up as winter storms slam the Northeastern U.S. Overseas markets are showing little life. We have a lot of earnings reports due this week but many of the heavy hitters have already reported. There aren't a lot of news catalysts right now so that will keep market participants cautious.

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    EELN +36% (announces deal with eBay), COCO +14% (announces termination of SEC inquiry, no enforcement action recommended; up in sympathy: CECO +2.6%), CNLG +13% (gets orders from major utilities for hardware), NGPS +12.5% (guides higher), IMMU +10% (started with $8 tgt at Rodman & Renshaw), MERQ +8.7% (guides higher), ALDN +6.1% (reports Q4), LM +5.7% (reports DecQ), SIRI +4.8% (reinstated with a Buy at Merrill Lynch; tgt $7.50; announces deal with Interscope Geffen A&M Records), LVS +3.4% (three initiations of coverage).... Under $3: PARS +10.4% (receives milestone payment from Bausch & Lomb), CCUR +8.6% (Needham upgrade).

    Gapping Down

    TZOO -12% (reports Q4; provides info to SEC concerning trading in the stock), CMTN -27% (says it will lay off most of its existing employees), STEM -8.6% (Stem Cell Lines Reported Contaminated - AP), ASTM -6.8% (same), GERN -3.9% (same), ADSK -4.7% (cut to Sell at BofA), CCMP -4.7% (Lehman downgrade), RIMM -1.8%.

  • According TrimTabs forecast we could have outflows of -$3 billion for January. This would be the second time in 15 years that January cash flowed out. That other year was 2003 and investors stayed on the sidelines while waiting for the Iraq invasion to begin. In January 2004 there were inflows of +44 billion. The -$3B was for all funds and the number is worse for those funds that only invest in the U.S. Those funds are on track for a -$6.8B outflow for the month.

    Minu küsimus oleks selline - kuskohakst peaks tekkima turule see BID, mis edasisest langusest päästab? Pigem on nii, et kui täna pärast optsioonireedet langusse pööratakse, on fondid taas müügipoolel ja lühikese possu poistel hurraa! Lisame siia veel nafta...
  • Mõmmik, kas sul on maatriksil bug sees - deja vu - jookse lähimasse telefoniputkasse muidu saavad agendid veel kätte :D
  • Indeksid on pigem seisma jäänud, seega täna chatis veidi elulisemad teemad :

    [henno viires] tere, kas see on nende meeste jutukas, kes 100% kuus teenivad_
    [henno viires] ?
    [kaye] :D... ja yhe naise
    [klepik] soovitan siis kõigil veidi viisakamat sõnavara tarvitada, kui naisterahvad ka
    chatis :)
    [kaye] jah ei olegi enam ainult meestmängumaa
    [klepik] väga tore!
    [sahtel] cramer: "Buy the Intel January 22.5 calls, position limit", -100%
    [spunk123] sooh, naised chatis - tea kas see toob head voi halba onne?:)
    [jim] naine chatis, optsioonid põhjas
    [fit] äkki kaye on sama palju naine kui bettie:)
    [spunk123] aga kuidas me seda teada saame? Kusiks mingeid numbreid (vanust
    muidugi mitte) voi seda, kas talle lilled meeldivad?:)
    [kaye] orhideed aitäh
    [LHV CHAT] Kasutaja zelinski tuli sellesse kanalisse.
    [LHV CHAT] Kasutaja erki kert tuli sellesse kanalisse.
    [solver] LHV inside info oleks ehk abiks :)
    [kaye] ja ütle mulle üks mees kellele orhideed meeldivad kui küsida
    [spunk123] kinganumber on ikka alla 42, Kaye?
    [fit] kamoon mis küsimused
    [fit] iga feikija võib sellele hästi vastata
    [fit] a ytle mis on head looduslikud kehakreemid:)
  • Semi equipmenti tootjatega on lood endiselt kehvad. Eriti nukker näeb välja Applied Materials'i (AMAT) graafik, kus reedel sulguti madalaimal tasemel alates 2003. aasta juunist. Kui täna päeva lõpus just imepärast kosumist ei tule, tähistab sulgumine taas madalaimat taset väga pikal perioodil. Võitlus käib ühesõnaga olulistel tasemetel.

    Sama lugu ka Altera'ga (ALTR), mis veel napilt septembri põhjadel püsib.
  • Amati esimesel neljal aktsion'ril on keskmine 16/17 ja putid on plussis.
  • january effect on saanud uue tähenuse nasdaq indeksit vaadates :)
    kuradi karud ma ütlen...
  • 16:05 NFLX prelim $0.14 vs $0.10 consensus; revs $144 mln vs $139.6 mln consensus

    Asi 10% üleval.

    sB
  • 16:07 NFLX sees Q1 revs of $149-$154 mln, consensus $144.6 mln; sees full yr of rev of $700-730 mln vs $678 mln consensus

    16:08 NFLX reports SAC of $35.61, vs street expectation $37-38

    Viimane number eriti röömustav.

    sB
  • Mõlemad straddle ideed (NFLX, SLAB) lendavad täna kõvasti ülespoole, sulgemine jääb homsesse.

    NFLX +14%, SLAB +16%.
  • Hiina:
    GDP 9,5% 2004
    CPI 3,6% (2003 1,2%)
    Retails sales 13.3%
  • Eilne järelturg pakkus straddle omanikele meeldivalt suuri liikumisi ning kui NFLX ja SLAB liikusid kohe, siis täiendava ideena saabunud FILE seisis pikalt tulemuste peale paigal. Kuid kui hiljem tulid prognoosid, siis nende peale kukkus aktsia võimsalt - $21.5 juurde, mis peaks olema kasumiks piisav.

    Seega täna on hoolega sulgemist ning nagu ikka, sõltub müügihetkest päris palju. Täpsemad kommentaarid enne päeva algust LHV Pro all.
  • klepik, suured tänud ilusate ideede eest! :)

    kas kahjumisse jäävad straddle-i positsioonid (NFLXi ja SLABi puhul siis putid) tuleks üldjuhul esimesel võimalusel likvideerida või tasub ka nendega oodata paremat hetke päeva jooksul?

  • Ise pakun et tasub veitsa oodata.Puttide eest v6ib saada ka t2itsa talutava kopika,kui ainult n2rvi j2tkub.
  • Rahast väljas asjade realiseerimisega peale tulemusi on kiire siis, kui optsioonireede väga lähedal. Kuna antud näidete puhul on optsioonireede väga kaugel, siis sedavõrd kiire pole.
  • Eelturul eile tulemused avaldanud straddle ideed

    NFLX +14,00%

    SLAB +19,54%

    Tänaseid tulemusi ...

    Enne turgu: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merck (MRK), Merrill Lynch (MER), Schering-Plough (SGP), Xerox (XRX), EMC Corp (EMC), Lone Star Tech (LSS), Tellabs (TLAB) jpt.

    Peale turgu: Avaya (AV), Computer Associates (CA), E*Trade (ET), Electronic Arts (ERTS), Flextronics (FLEX), Integrated Silicon (ISSI), Kraft Foods (KFT), RedEnvelope (REDE), RF Micro Device (RFMD), Sirenza Micro (SMDI), Storage Tech (STK), Texas Instruments (TXN), Vitesse Semi (VTSS).

     

  • Merck inline - EPS 0.50 vs. ootus 0.50

    Merrill Lynch ületas - EPS 1.19 vs. ootus 1.10

    Schering-Plough mixed - EPS -0,03 vs. ootus 0.00, käive 2184 vs ootus 2069
  • Netflixi (NFLX)'i koha pealt pean ütlema, et vägagi positiivne üllatus. Pea kõik näitajad omasid positiivset trendi. Hetkel käib võitlus turuosa pärast.

    sB
  • Cody Willard:

    December's Bandwagon Flipped in January
    1/25/05 8:40 AM ET

    Why? My IMs and emails and phone calls all seem to start off with that single word: Why? Why is the market crashing? (Can we even call the action in the Nasdaq and SMH "crashing" yet? I mean, the Nas is down nearly 8% and the SMH down nearly 12% in the last month. Declines that big and that fast certainly have crash characteristics to it.)

    Why can't stocks catch any sort of a sustainable bid? The questions then turn to the circular question of: What are stocks telling us? What does this stock market collapse say?

    Sometimes the answers to such questions can be rather simplistic, and in my mind, this is one of those times. I've repeatedly discussed how essentially every long I know was fully invested into the new year and looking for a big spike in January. Further, in the final two weeks of last year, all of my many bearish friends had covered most of their shorts and even gotten long themselves expecting a big rally in January. Even daytraders got long into the new year, taking merchandise home -- a very uncharacteristic move.

    So rather than ask why or what, maybe the right question is simply: who? As in, who was left to buy? The short answer is: nobody. So we came into the new year and immediately stocks faded. And when things started badly, everybody looked around and thought, "Uh oh, I'm trapped, surely a rally is just around the corner." And when everybody's trapped and looking for a rally, it won't come.

    So when the mo-mo guys balked as stocks couldn't find their legs, stocks faded further, and the shorts -- frustrated beyond belief after having been punished for months on end by fighting the autumn rally and now being crushed in a decline -- began to sell the longs they picked up and sell out of their positions, giving up on their hoped-for rally.

    The longs, meanwhile, were starting to see their entire gains from the autumn rally disappear, and they started to capitulate and sell into the weakness. And stocks fall further.

    By extrapolating out from the money managers I talk to, I figure that tens of billions of dollars have been unwinding this missing "January Effect" trade. Thus, the trashed charts in front of you.

    The futures are pointing to a strong open -- shocker! Let's see if the dumpers and unwinders have finally finished. More on this later.


     

  • NFLX, SLAB ja FILE kohta väiksed kommentaarid Pro all.
  • Gapping Up

    Higher on strong earnings/guidance: SLAB +19% (also upgrades from Piper, Legg Mason and CE Unterberg), CRDN +13%, NFLX +12% (also Avondale upgrade), AAI +6.8%, ADTN +6.3%, COH +2.6%, X +2.3%.... Other News: BEV +31% (receives buyout offer), YHOO +2% (Smith Barney upgrade), BOBJ +4.7% (UBS Europe upgrade), OPWV +4.6% (Thomas Weisel upgrade), AUDC +3.5%, CREAF +3.4%, RIMM +3.3% (UBS upgrade), COCO +2.9% (continues 10% move yesterday), SAP +2.6%, JNPR +2.2% (FBR upgrade).... Stem cell stocks are strong as ASTM responds to contamination article: ASTM +9%, STEM +4.3%, VIAC +4.2%.... Under $3: CRIO +36% (IBM to buy the company), PACW +9.6%.


    Gapping Down

    Down on disappointing earnings/guidance: SIMG -14% (also CEO resigns), CTV -11% (also Merrill downgrade), FILE -9.8% (also FBR downgrade), TMWD -6.6%, KCI -6.7%, IMN -6.5%, TLAB -3.3%, EMC -3%.... Other News: PLMO -6.6% (CEO resigns), BRCD -4.9% (CEO resigns, restates results; Piper downgrade), CRXL -4% (continues 6.4% drop yesterday).

  • No nüüd keegi häbenes midagi ja Kristjan võttiski välja.
    Jama, ...nagu kooliplikad.
  • kas kuskil on mingid reeglid mida tohib foorumisse kirjutada ja mida mitte?
    uudiseid või lõikeid nendest on siin ju kõikjal väga palju
    ja foorum ju võikski olla täiesti selline koht kus selliseid uudiseid kajastada ja nende üle arutada
    või on lhvl siiber mõne külastaja postitustest
    mulle on jäänud mulje et "külastaja" kasutab kellegi teise teenust kui lhv, kui üldse

  • Yanek, milles probleem? Üks kasutaja palus oma postitused kustutada, nii ka tegin.
  • Habi Kristjan!!!

    Enne kui esimese kommentaari kustutasid, oleks v6inud ju hoiatada, mitte tagantjargi, nagu Sa tegid.

  • Kronoloogia:

    1) Energy kopeeris ilma ühegi kommentaarita pika inglise keelse teksti.
    2) Seost muude tekstidega polnud, kustutasin selle.
    3) Energy postitas sama teksti uuesti.
    4) Kirjutasin talle, et sellist pikka inglise keelset teksti ilma kommentaarita pole ilmselt vaja siia kopeerida.
    5) Energy vastas "Lasteaed"
    6) Seejärel kirjutas uuesti ja palus kõik oma kommentaarid kustutada.

    Ei tunne mingit vajadust häbi tunda, kirjeldus siin selleks, et ei jääks muljet nagu LHV-s ülirange tsensuur möllaks.
  • Kristjan, ilmselt Sul on 6igus siin foorumis kustutada, aga viiskas oleks ikkagi enne hoiatada.
    See teks ei olnud nii pikk yldse, pikemaidki nahtud.
  • ei taha just vinguda aga Pro all olevad ideed on enamus praeguseks kas stopid saavutanud voi lihtsalt vanad ja tarbetud.
  • Joonatan, Pro all on vanad ideed on suletud ja ka vastav märge juures ju..
    Uute lisamisega on tulemuste hooajal keeruline, kuna tulemused võivad liigutada aktsiaid täiesti ettearvamatult. Kui hooaeg hakkab rahunema, siis tuleb ka uusi ideid.

    Juttu siis kauplemisideedest.

    Ardo

Teemade nimekirja