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  • Rev Shark:

    Tech Rotation: Here to Stay?
    3/8/05 8:31 AM ET

    "The entrepreneur always searches for change, responds to it, and exploits it as an opportunity."

    -- Peter F. Drucker

    The one great certainty in the stock market is change: themes emerge, trends shift, sectors rotate, old leadership dies and new leadership emerges. We can either fight change or embrace it. The choice seems painfully obvious but many investors have a particularly tough time embracing shifts in market leadership. All you have to do is look at how long investors held on to the winners of the bubble days after the market topped out.

    For many years legions of investors refused to give up on the stocks that led the wild action of 1999-2000. It couldn't be any clearer that dramatic change was taking place in the market but investors stuck with the winners of old.

    Inertia is extremely dangerous in an ever-evolving market environment -- nothing lasts forever in the stock market except change. If we hope to be successful we have to be prepared to adapt to new emerging themes and let go of old ones.

    One of the key themes recently has been oil. The stocks are up dramatically and there are few signs that the price of crude is cooling. What is particularly interesting about this theme is how fiercely investors defend it. They have done well with these stocks and have a difficult time even imagining that they won't continue to rise for months, if not years. Maybe they will but that doesn't relieve us from the obligation to watch for signs that change is in the air.

    Yesterday we saw some signs that the character of the market may be shifting. Nasdaq stocks, particularly technology, lead to the upside while recent winners such as steel, homebuilding and oil lead to the downside. The outperformance of the Nasdaq is our first solid signal that a rotation may be taking place. Our job now is to monitor that for signs it will expand further and then act once our confidence level is high enough.

    A weak midquarter update from Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) is making the idea of rotation more difficult but major shifts in the market are never smooth or easy; we can't expect investors to change their thinking quickly. They have to deal with their inertia and start to question the things that have been working most recently. They won't do it overnight.

    The technology bulls are saying that Texas Instruments is a case of company-specific problems and should not affect the chip sector too much. We'll see but the price of crude oil is probably even more important. As long as crude oil shows an inclination to rise, a rotation into technology stocks is going to be a struggle.

    We have a slightly negative open shaping up but things are better than they were last night after the Texas Instruments report. I'll be watching closely for new leadership to develop. Google (GOOG:Nasdaq) is a particularly good candidate if the rotation takes hold.

    Long GOOG

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    ADLR +14.4% (reports initial results from Entereg Study), APSG +13.5% (Thomas Weisel upgrade), IIG +8% (reiterates guidance), CTIC +7.2% (bounces after 48% drop yesterday), ADSX +6.9%, DAL +5.3% (in talks to sell subsidiaries - WSJ), ELN +4.8% (short-covering following recent weakness), ABRX +4.6% (reports Q4), WMC +4.3% (BHP Billiton bids $7.3 bln for Australia's WMC -- Reuters), BOOM +3.1% (momentum), FINL +2.7% (to be added to S&P SmallCap 600), FFIV +2.6% (to be added to S&P SmallCap 600), LVS +2.4% (reports Q4, beats by $0.04), RIMM +1.5% (reiterated Buy and $95 tgt at UBS).... Small cap energy/fuel stocks maintian momentum: BDCO +21%, FUEL +18%, POCC +8%, MPET +4.1%, ABLE +3.7%... Under $3: SPAB +8.6%, REV +7.8% (reports first qtrly profit in 6 years), VPHM +7.7%.

    Gapping Down

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: KR -9.1%, TXN -3.2%, TRMD -6.6%, DKS -4%, MSSN -5.3%, AVII -5.2%..... Other News: AAPL -2.3% (Sony to Debut Flash-Based Audio Players -- AP), PRFT -13% (announces 5 mln share offering), INTL -11% (SpectraLink integrates with co's Axxess Platform), PWER -6.3% (to be dropped from S&P 500), SONS -4.9% (cut to Underweight at Pac Growth), GEOI -3.8% (profit taking after 23% move yesterday), CTSH -3.2% (UBS downgrade), MRH -3% (says certain founding shareholders sold 3.7 mln shares under shelf registration).

  • Naise, ilusat börsipäeva teile!
  • Vaatamata sellele, et Texas Instruments (TXN) eile õhtul ootustele kergelt alla jäi, on päris suur hulk analüütikuid firmat kaitsmas. Smith Barney, Moors & Cabot, Legg Mason ... kõik säilitasid aktsiale osta reitingu ning kergitasid pisut hinnasihte. Prudential jättis samuti reitingu muutmata ning hetkel siis overweight ja hinnasiht $30.
  • Turg pole eilset tugevust suutnud jätkata, ühe põhjusena tõusnud naftahind (vt. Avalöök). Päeva lõpp üsna tähtis, näitab kui tugevad pullid on.
  • Tehnoloogiasektor üsna nõrk, samal ajal püsib Dow väga kitsas vahemikus, viimasel ajal tehnoloogiasektor vedurina enam töötanud ei ole, nii tuleks suurem tähelepanu Dow-le ja vanale majandusele suunata.
  • Kui aktsiaturg väheliikuv, siis kõik teised turud väga närvilised. USA võlakirjaturul on 10 aastase võlakirja intressimäär 4,38% tasemele hüpanud, nafta hind on 55 dollari all ja dollar nõrgenes euro vastu protsendi jagu, hetkel tasemel 1,334 eur/usd.
  • Oracle'iga (ORCL) seoses laekub jätkuvalt põnevaid ülevõtmisteemalisi uudiseid. Mõne aja eest kirjutasin (siin), et saksa tarkvaratootja SAP on teinud ülevõtmispakkumise Retek'i (RETK) omandamiseks. Tol hetkel tundus ka üsna tõenäoline, et tehing saab varsti tehtud ning SAPi haare Põhja-Ameerikas selle läbi laieneb. Eile asus Ellison oma turuosa aga kaitsma ning Oracle tuli välja omapoolse pakkumisega Reteki ülevõtmiseks. Oracle pakkumine on aga SAPi omaga võrreldes 50-sendise preemiaga. Eks näis mis edasi saab. Kuigi SAPi juhtkond kohe kommentaare ei jaganud, usun, et võitlus Reteki üle on alles algamas.

  • Pakun, et Oracle saab RETKi kätte, kuna neil on suurem motivatsioon ostmiseks kui SAPil. RETKi soft on põhiosas Oracle vahendite peal tehtud, samuti on RETK juba nagunii konkurentsis SAPiga kannatada saanud.
  • Ja veel, ORCL on juba omandanud 10% RETKist.
    Turg ootab suuremat hinda, nagu eilne järelturu hind $10 juures näitab.
  • Vaadates, millisel tasemel Reteki aktsiad eile järelturul kauplesid, tundub et turuosalised ootavad SAPilt või Oracle'ilt veel kõrgemaid pakkumisi. Kuna Oracle'i finantsvõimalused on SAPi omast iseenesest tunduvalt suuremad, siis kipun ka Oracle peale panustama. Kuigi üks poole miljardiline amps ei tohiks kummagi jaoks üle jõu käia ja kui SAP samuti aru saab, kui väga Oracle Retekit ihaldab, siis vaevalt Retek odava hinnaga lastakse üle võtta.
  • Huvitav, et Harju Elektri aktsia viskas ka natukene enne aktsiaslpiti teadet üle 200 krooni ja siis küll langes tagasi. Mis võis olla tookordse tõusu mootor?
  • Raha on nii Oraclel kui SAPil piisavalt, et terve pesakond Retekeid osta :)
  • Mõned päevad tagasi sai soovitatud Rakveret ja vaadake mis aktsia teinud on !!!
  • kas keegi kommenteeriks EBAY-d? 50-day EMA on 200-day EMA-st läbi ja languseks kõik teed avatud, samas CMF on suht positiivne?

    Kas ajutine langus või jääbki langema?
  • RLK1T siis 3 päevaga +28,74% 728630 EEK käibega ja keskmise tehingusummaga 19692.73 EEK

    Muidu Rakvere Lihakombinaat on 1 likviidsemaid aktsiaid siinmail, free float on 1,8759% aktsiate koguarvust ja see on aasta algusest peale juba 3 korda läbi keritud ...

    Võrdluseks Hansapank, kus enne Swedbank ülevõtmispakkumist kaubeldi 6 kuuga 27% free floati läbi

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