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  • Rev Shark:

    Danger in Tech Can't Be Ignored
    3/14/05 8:39 AM ET

    Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold... The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

    -- William Butler Yeats

    Although the S&P 500 and the Dow are down only slightly from multiple-year highs, the vortex of negativity increased substantially last week and the swirling winds of change are building. There is no worthy leadership in which we can have confidence and conviction. Interest rates and inflation concerns have been building in intensity and have the potential to weigh heavily on the market.

    The picture is not a pretty one for the bulls. There was hope last weak that a pullback in oils, homebuilders and commodity-related stocks would help trigger a move into technology, financials and retail, which then would then lead the market. However, the inability of Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) to rally on good news made it clear that investors were not ready to embrace technology stocks.

    Oil stocks pulled back slightly, but it looked more like a correction after a parabolic move rather than a major reversal. Steel stocks, which have been a leader, also pulled back but managed to bounce on Friday as a major company in the sector announced strong earnings.

    Earnings are always important and investors are keenly aware that oils, homebuilders, steel and commodity stocks will be posting big first-quarter earnings reports, while technology stocks and other key groups are unlikely to deliver substantial upside. It is tough to make a compelling fundamental case for the stocks that the bulls would like to see lead at this point, and with warnings season rapidly approaching, the danger, especially in technology stocks, can't be ignored.

    Without leadership, other than oil, and raising inflation and interest rate pressure there is little question that this market has some major problems to surmount. Can it do it? Maybe, but it isn't the smart bet. This is a time to be defensive and focus on preserving capital. If new leadership emerges we will have time to react to it, but the key right now is to not anticipate strength when there are so many negatives at work.

    We have a slightly positive open on the way. Overseas markets are mixed. Oil is down slightly on comments from Saudi Arabia about increasing production. The dollar is bouncing a bit and gold is down.

    It is likely to be tough slogging and I'm going to fortify myself with an extra cup of coffee.

    No positions in stocks mentioned.

    Seekord 20 aastase võlakirja hinna muutumine

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Gapping Up

    RIMM +3.1% (co and Yahoo! announce worldwide relationship), ASCL +17% (to be acquired by IBM), UCL +2.9% (sees a third possible suitor - WSJ), MAHI +10% (extends recent momentum), SYNA +9.3% (Bear Stearns upgrade; $32 tgt), INFA +7.4% (sympathy play to ASCL/IBM merger), ISON +6.7% (announces availability of video for explosive detector), BOOM +5.3% (extends recent momentum), NPSP +4.8% (Jefferies upgrade), PRGO +2.9%, SEPR +2.5% (receives FDA approval), FLEX +2.4%, NVDA +2.1% (upgraded to Strong Buy at JMP Securities), ODP +1.9% (names new CEO), AAPL +1% (JP Morgan raises ests)... Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: LSI +5.6%, CMGI +8.9%.

    Gapping Down

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: AVCT -26%, JOBS -10%, SKIL -6.7%.... Other News: NLY -8.3% (extends Friday's 6.7% drop on Smith Barney initiation), ADBL -6.6% (started with a Sell at Stanford; tgt $9), MANH -5.6% (JP Morgan downgrade), AIG -2.3% (CEO may step down this week - WSJ), AIRT -2%, ERICY -1.7% (analyst update todat at 3 ET).... Under $3: BSQR -25%, LJPC -15% (co will not get FDA accelerated review), AXYX -12% (Alzheimer's drug trial continues).
  • Aaple (AAPL) prognoose tõsteti päeva alguses JP Morgani poolt, aktsia protsendi avaneski plussis, praeguseks kergesse miinusesse kukkunud. Negatiivne signaal sentimendi kohta, hoidke AAPL radaril.
  • Niipalju kui mina olen vaadanud, on viimane kuu aega üldse turg suhteliselt negatiivne olnud, suured kukkumised, väikesed tõusud ja jälle suured kukkumised...
    PEaaegu kõik minu jälgimisnimekirjas olevad aktsiad on miinuses...
  • DNDN hakkas liikuma, ei tea kas oodatakse homsetelt tulemustelt uut ja olulist infi.Mõni aeg tagasi olime ka olulise liikumise tunnistajateks enne data valdamist.
  • DNA Genentech: Avastin + chemotherapy helps lung cancer patients - CNBC (51.25 +7.17) -- Update --
    pani kogu sektori liikuma
  • PDLI läks ka liikvele. Kahjuks likvideerisin mõned päevad tagasi positsiooni, :(
  • päris karm uudis tõesti, kogu turg läks liikvele
  • Näib, et Traderi feedis on YM-i eelmine close vähe mööda arvestatud.
  • RealMoney TA kolumnist G. B. Smith aka "Chartman" DNA teemal:

  • Genentech 3Q Profit Rose As Rev Jumped 36% >DNA
    DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
    Genentech Inc. -DNA- after Tuesday's closing bell reported net earnings of $568 million, or 53 cents a share, in the third quarter, up 58% from $359 million, or 33 cents a share, in the same quarter last year.

    Revenue rose 36% to $2.38 billion from $1.75 billion a year earlier.

    Earnings from continuing operations were 59 cents a share.

    Analysts, on average, had been looking for a profit of 51 cents a share and revenue of $2.32 billion, according to Thomson First Call.

    Genentech also said it expects full-year 2006 earnings from continuing operations to rise between 65% and 70% over 2005.

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