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  • Rev Shark:

    Play Defense as Oil, Fed Take Center Stage
    3/21/05 8:23 AM ET

    "The best armor is to keep out of gunshot."

    -- Sir Francis Bacon

    The character of the market took a turn for the worse last week. Interest rate and inflation pressures, higher oil prices and a paucity of leadership pressured the market and sent the buyers to the sidelines.

    As we kick off a new week the big question is whether the market is ready to bounce, and if so to what extent. Are we sufficiently "oversold" that buyers are likely to emerge and move this market back up?

    Probably. The chances of a bounce from last week's persistent selling is higher, but it is extremely dangerous to expect an upward move to go far or last long. Last week's action highlighted some major problems in this market and they aren't going to be easily overcome. There are going to be plenty of market participants watching for a bounce so that they can do some selling and/or shorting.

    The thing that the bulls want most right now -- a complete reversal and a big "V" shaped bounce in the market -- is the least likely scenario to occur. That doesn't mean you should ignore upside trading opportunities, but you should stay defensive. Think in terms of preserving your capital and not incurring any big losses.

    If you are feeling positive about the market try to contain your bullishness to some degree, and don't be overly aggressive at this point. The market is damaged and has to repair the recent weakness before it can be relied on to deliver sustained upside.

    Missing some of the early part of a market recovery is a very cheap way to avoid being caught in a sustained downtrend. Market pundits love the idea of trying to call market turns and every once in a while they even get it right, but for most investors the way to produce high-probability gains is to try to catch part of a trend, rather than catch a reversal.

    If your time frame is short enough the likelihood is that there will be some upside bounce action to trade this week but if you have a time frame longer than a week or so, the trend is negative and you should focus on capital preservation and good defense.

    Keep in mind that the Fed will take center stage tomorrow at 2:15 p.m. EST with the latest interest rate decision. Another hike is widely anticipated but the language in the accompanying statement has the potential to be a market mover.

    We have some positive action to start the week. The IAC/InteractiveCorp (IACI:Nasdaq) buy of Ask Jeeves (ASKJ:Nasdaq) is the big news but there are several other deals helping matters as well. Oil is up again and gold is down rather sharply.

    Strength on Monday morning is always difficult to trust and today is no different, even with the positive merger news. No matter what else is happening, oil will remain a focus.

    No positions in stocks mentioned

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Esmaspäevale kohaselt teatakse suurtest ülevõtmistest. InteractiveCorp teatas Ask Jeeves (ASKJ) ostmisest 1,85 miljardi dollari eest. Ask Jeeves aktsia on eelturul 15% plussis, IACI aktsia seevastu 3,5% miinuses.
  • Gapping Up

    ASKJ +16% (to be acquired by IACI; up in sympathy: LOOK +15%, MAMA +13%, GRU +11.3%, FWHT +7.5%, INCX +5.7%, INSP +3.9%), SDS +19% (Buyout firm in talks to buy Sungard for $10 bln - NY Post), ONXX +12.5% (positive clinical development), DNA +11% (possible beneficiary of SHR's cancer drug setback), TSRA +11.3% (guides higher), PCLE +20% (to be acquired by AVID), PDLI +8.1% (possible beneficiary of SHR's cancer drug setback), SYNC +7.6% (JP Morgan upgrade), OATS +7.1% (upgraded to Aggressive Buy at Keybanc), VION +6.7% (Cloretazine clinical data), DRL +5.8% (Wachovia upgrade), ABB +5.4% (to settle asbestos issue), TIVO +4.8% (to enter Japan market as early as 2006 -- Reuters), ELOS +4.8% (CIBC upgrade).... Small cap energy names moving higher: ABLE +7.6%, USEG +6.4%, GEOI +6.3%.... Under $3: VNWI +24%, RNAI +20%, NENG +15% (signs deal with MSFT), AVNX +10% (Alcatel contract).

    Gapping Down

    SHR -14% (cancer drug setback; NVS -3.2% down in sympathy), NTAP -3.8% (cut to Sell at Smith Barney), DSTI -6.7% (files 10-K), WBSN -3.1% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), IACI -2.4% (to buy ASKJ), AIG -1.9% (extends weakness from last week)... Gold stocks are weak on strength in the dollar: RGLD -4.4%, BGO -3.6%, NEM -2.9%, GLD -1.5%.

  • klepik - kas võiksid selle tõenäosuste lingi veel anda (mingi sporttrade või midagi sellist oli)

    P.S. Riigikogus jälle müratakse, Vaher maas. Uus valitsus tulekul.
  • http://www.tradesports.com/

    Financial teema all siis turgudega seotud panustamine. Homse FEDi 25 bp. intressitõusu tõenäosuseks hinnatakse 97%.

    Ma usun, et seal saaks inimeste emotsioonide vastu raha teenida, kuid pole aega leidnud testida.
  • Kas on kellelgi veel Traderi graafikutelt aegajalt datat puudu? Just aktsiate puhul, indeksid ja futuurid on ok.
  • Jah, mul ka. Mingit teatud ajavahemikku lihtsalt ei näita korralikult.
  • Enamus päevast ei õnnestunud börsi teateid lugeda, otsisin äripäeva onlinest ja siis tulin siia tagasi!
  • Traderi graafikuga samad probleemid ja juba teist nädalat. Täna küsisin LHV-st. Lubati asja uurida, kuid ei antud lootust. Samas on Trader ju ikkagi selliseks töövahendiks mida kasutada kauplemiseks ja graafiku toimimine on seejuures oluline.

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