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Börsipäev 8. aprill

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Rev Shark:

    "You may have your suspicions, your fears, you may even believe there is something, somewhere, terribly, drastically wrong, but because someone else is in charge, because there is a part of the system above you which you don't know, you don't question it, you even distrust your own doubts."

    -- Graham Swift

    The indices have managed to string together four positive days for the first time in quite a while. Oil has pulled back, interest rate pressures have cooled a bit and investors are hopeful that earnings season will bring some good news. That sounds pretty good and perhaps we should distrust our doubts about the market.

    The problem is that there is an underlying lack of character. This move has come on poor volume, indicating reluctance on the part of big institutional buyers to put cash to work. There has been little buying vigor although we have seen some signs of new leadership emerging in groups such as medical equipment and biotechnology.

    There are signs that new leadership could emerge as homebuilders, steels and commodity-related stocks continue to slip, which is positive and bodes well for the future, but we shouldn't expect the transition to be a smooth one. We need some further basing action in many of these stocks to provide better technical support for a future leadership role.

    The market continues to be extremely sensitive to the price of crude oil -- to some extent we might as well be trading oil futures rather than the market indices. The correlation is not absolute, but it is very strong and likely to remain that way until something dramatic occurs to change the fundamental situation of oil prices.

    This four-day rally has taken the indices to key technical resistance levels. For the Nasdaq that is around the 2025 level and for the S&P 500 it is the 50-day simple moving average at 1193. It is going to be tougher for this market to keep heading higher as it moves into these areas of congestion, especially when the support at this level is nothing but a low-volume V-shaped move.

    We have reason to distrust this market but if oil continues to soften the market may continue to move higher for a while anyway. On the other hand, if we falter the stage is set for a rather nasty pullback because there is so little nearby support.

    We have a slightly positive open on the way. Oil is down again, overseas markets are positive, the dollar is strong and the news flow is generally good. It is Friday and the weather is turning nice in many parts of the country so we are likely to see volume slow again, producing some choppy trading.

  • IPIX täna hommikul juba plussis. Põhjuseks tuuakse uus toode ja paavsti matus.

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