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Börsipäev 19. aprill - peale turgu Intel ja Yahoo!

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  • Kui enim tähelepanu pälvivad täna ilmselt peale turu sulgemist tulemused avaldavad Intel (INTC) ja Yahoo! (YHOO), siis enne turgu on laekumas olulisi raporteid vana majanduse vallast, sealhulgas mitmetelt Dow Jones komponentidelt.

    Esialgu Dow koosseisus väljas:
    Coca-Cola (KO) üle ootuste, aktsia +3,98%
    Pfizer üle ootuste, aktsia +1,27%

    Oodata veel General Motors (GM) ja Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

    Tehnoloogiasektoris Lucent (LU) EPS inline, aga käive üle ootuste, aktsia +9,20%
  • Ja TASR tulemuste järel -7,15% ... :)
  • General Motors teatas kvartali kahjumiks 1,1 miljardit dollarit, firma tulud kahanesid 4,3% 45,8 miljardile dollarile. Firma probleemiks on turuosa kaotamine Jaapani autotootjatele, suured võlad ning kõrged tervishoiu ja pensionikulud. Aktsia eelturul -3,13% ehk 12 aasta põhjas.

    Tuum tootjahinnaindeks kerkis märtsis 0,1%, oodati 0,2% tõusu. Kütuse ja toiduainete hindasid sisaldav tootjahinnaindeks kerkis 0,7%, oodatud 0,6% asemel. Uute majade ehitamiste arv oli 1,84 miljonit, oosati 2,09 miljonit. Ehituslubasid väljastati 2,023 oodatud 2,094 asemel. Tootjahinnad olid turule pigem kergenduseks, kuna kartused inflatsiooni kasvu ees on turule halvasti mõjunud. Oodatust madalam number peaks viitama ka Föderaalreservi senise intressimäära poliitika järkumisele.
  • TASR teeb tasapisi lossi tasa, enne oli -9%, nüüd -3%.
  • Doug Kass põhjendab oma pikka positsiooni Kuubikutes, mees on lühiajaliselt pikk ka SPY-s. Negatiivne vaade kinnisvara ja homebuilderite suhtes oli vist ka tema 2005. aasta prognooside seas.

    The torch of speculation has shifted from technology to the real estate industry over the last several years.

    There are no more dot.coms, the telecom industry is littered with bankruptcies and there is almost a unanimity that tech is dreck. Venture capitalists -- who poured over $100 billion into tech and Internet companies that had no or limited plans in 2000 -- won't even look at anything but the most mature technology companies with clear cash flows. A million jobs were lost in technology when the bubble popped.

    The technology sector no longer leads the market and the economy higher; it leads it lower. The Nasdaq's blow-off top of 5050 in March 2002 is a distant memory and the technology sector has led the 2005 market in its decline, down by over 12% this year, and, at 1440, the Nasdaq Index is down by over 70% from its speculative high.

    In the place of technology is the real estate industry, with promises of riches in the perception of its own new paradigm, or long boom.

    Stated simply, we have moved from a technology-centric economy in the late 1990s to a real estate-centric economy today.

    I remraked last week that, in an exquisite example of irony, the CNBC special I participated in ("The Real Estate Boom") had so many similarities to the last technology-led stock market bubble, it was almost mind-boggling to me!

    I would short real estate and buy technology.

    Here is my rationale for buying QQQQs:

    • There is a natural tendency to stay with the sector, or asset class, that performs the best (now defensive areas) and to avoid those sectors, or asset classes that performs the worse (now technology). That psychology, in its extreme, leads to sector bottoms.

    • In an exquisite example of irony, one segment of our CNBC special featured a daytrader of homes who quit his software job (almost as if the movie was in reverse, with a technology executive forsaking software for real estate!). I guess what we have learned from history is that we haven't learned from history. Need I say more?

    • At the bottom of a market sector there are a plethora of misses, and investors respond by saying "no mas." Recently, Silicon Storage (SSTI, Chartered Semiconductor (CHRT), National Semiconductor (NSM), Siebel (SEBL), IBM (IBM), SeeBeyond Technology (SBYN), Tech Data (TECD), Ingram Micro (IM), Synnex (SNX), PC Connection (PCCC), Mentor Graphics (MENT), and many others have warned. This is typically near the ideal time to overweight a sector!
    • Any move by the Administration -- in the form of tax incentives to improve business spending (like an extention of capital gains tax reductions) -- could abet tech demand.

    • At the bottom there are always other signs: expectations are low and talks of a turn are ignored; Texas Instruments' (TXN) upbeat conference call suggested clean inventories and a good turn in March and April orders. (Thus far, at least measured by the initial response, it has fallen on relatively deaf ears).

    • Whether we are approaching a trough or not in technology, anticipating stabilization/turn usually yields the best returns. The first step is reducing an inventory overhang. By the time demand comes back, the initial rise in the sector has occurred and a new up-cycle commences.

    • DRAM spot prices are down by nearly 50% over the last few months. It is hard to see prices getting much worse -- it is always darkest before the dawn. Buy at the sound of cannons, sell at the sound of trumpets!

    • The semiconductor bulls look like they are capitulating into the recent market swoon, with the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) clearly breaking down as (a good thing!) as investors are in the "give up" stage.

    • Much has been made of the IBM miss. My view is that more than half of the miss was IBM-specific. It is natural at bottoms for investors to extrapolate the IBM miss as an indictment of all technology.

    • Fred Hickey spent the lion's share of his most recent High Tech Strategist monthly letter discussing the real estate sector, not technology. A tell? Moreover, he recently got his feet wet, going long Novell (NOVL), AMD (AMD) and 3COM (COMS).

    • Besides the Texas Instruments statement last night, EMC (EMC), Adtran (ADTN) and ADC Telecommunications (ADCT) beat last night -- a start? Corning (GLW) guided higher yesterday afternoon.

    Technology is, by no means, out of the woods, as demand remains weak , e.g., personal computer sales (while strong in China) remain poor in Europe and soft in the U.S.

    Market participants were poorly positioned for the technology bubble's top in March 2000. It is likely that the reverse might be true in April 2005.

  • NB! Päeva teises pooles (üsna pea siis) läheb tähelepanu hommikustelt uudistelt õhtustele - täna peale börsi Intel ja Yahoo tulemustega. See positsioneerimine mõjutab ilmselt ka turgu.
  • Et siis hommikuste käive kukub ja saba läheb longu?:)
  • Seda tasub ka jälgida, aga radaril hoida ka INTC ja YHOO.
  • muideks. mõtlesin juba algajate foorumist küsida, aga seal jääkski vastust ootama.
    Kust siis ikkagi saab maailma kõige kiiremini majandustulemused kätte? :)
    On jäänud mulje, et www.nasdaq.com see ei ole.
  • tehvlon, Bloomberg, Telerate ja Reuters on need kohad ...
  • minu käest saab ka, aint 1700$ kuus:P
  • Tehvlon, Bloombergi uudisteleht General Motorsi (GM) kohta nägi täna hommikul välja selline.

    Nagu näed, tulevad esimesena ainult pealkirjad, pead ise prognoose teadma ja oskama neist välja lugeda, kas hästi või halvasti.

  • Valge suits - uus paavst valitud. Isik avalikustatakse ilmselt tunni jooksul.
  • Eks selle riigi aktsiad peaks rallima, kust uus paavst tuleb :)
  • Kellad kah helisevad - jah. paavst on igal juhul valitud. Iseasi kas see uudis maailmas üldse mingit mõju avaldab...
  • loodetavasti tuleb paavst usast,wall street i kandist.
  • polegi onu sam aga mingi peni või bennu ......
  • Vähemalt AAPL teeb väikest rallit (+4,3% kirjutamise ajal). Loodetavasti hakkavad straddle'i kandidaad ka ennast uuesti liigutama... muidu see volatiilsuse langus hakkab juba ära tüütama.
  • Kristjan, Henno, ma tänan! Fit, nii maailma kiiret teenust mul ka nüüd vaja pole >:D
    Aga tõsi. info on krdma kallis.
    Isegi hea, et tallinna börsi tulemused kõigepealt tasuta kanalisse jõuavad.
  • Sõltub, kumba pidi graafikut vaadata :)
  • kõik on korras, nothing to watch here. mul on monitor külili. kogu aeg turud tõusevad. lõppu ei näi tulevat.
  • 16:16 INTC prelim $0.34 vs $0.31 Reuters consensus; revs $9.4 bln vs $9.31 bln Reuters consensus
  • 16:18 INTC raises Capital Spending outlook to $5.4-5.8 bln from $4.9-$5.3 bln

    uhh, see peaks semidele küll tuge andma.
  • YHOO ka oodatust paremate tulemustega väljas. Hämmastav vahe uudistes võrreldes reedega.

    Nasdaqi futuurid 10 punkti plussis.
  • Näed ka LHV-st saab infot ja ilma rahata kätte. Ei pea mööda saite tuulamagi.
  • Mitte kuigi regulaarne see LHV majandustulemuste uudiste osa :)

    Järelturul tõstis Juniper (JNPR) CC ajal prognoose, aktsia tõusis veel punkti.

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