LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 1. juuni - GOOG

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • USA-s avaldatakse kl 10 majandusaktiivsuse indikaator ISM(mai), mis peegeldab arenguid tööstuses. Regionaalsed numbrid, mis lähiaegadel avaldatud...

    NY Empire Index -11.1 (ootused +11)
    Philly Fed 7.1(ootused 18)
    Chicago PMI 54.1 (ootused 62)

    ...lubavad nõrka tulemust (ootused 52.2).
    Alla 50 näidu korral on üsna selge, et Fedi intressitõstmistesse tuleb sisse paus.

    Kl 10 veel construction spending. Ootustest(+0.7%) tublisti erinev näit avaldavab mõju housing-sektorile.

    Kl 10:30 avaldatakse USA naftatoodete laovarude seis.
    Eelmine nädal kahanesid laovarud üllatuslikult ja naftahinnad hüppasid üle 50USD.
    Kallim nafta tähendab transpordisektori aktsiate langust ja naftaaktsiate tõusu. Nafta hinna alanemisel liiguvad nende sektorite aktsiate hinnad vastupidi.

    Börsi lahtiolekuajal avaldavad maikuu müüginumbrid finantsraskustes autotootjad Ford (kl.12) ja General Motors (umbes kl. 13:45). Mõlema autotootja müüginumbrite vähenemist oodatakse umbes 5% võrra võrreldes eelmise aasta maiga.
  • EUR/USD juba 1.2244 peal. Reedel avaldatav USA tööjõutururaport mai kohta muudab kurssi ilmselt oluliselt.

    Aasta lõikes usun dollari edasisse tugevnemisse, kuid lühiajaliselt veidi euro vastu üleostetud.
  • Kristjan, mis mõttes muudab oluliselt? Kas siis euro kasuks? Mulle tundub küll dollari tõus juba liialt kiire olevat...nagu üleostetud.
  • Joel, praegust närvilist kauplemist EUR/USD suunal arvestades, arvan, et tuleb korralik liikumine. Suunda ei oska ennustada, kuid dollaril languseks rohkem ruumi (kõrged ootused).
  • The euro hit a 7-1/2 month low against the dollar on Wednesday on reports that possible failure of the European Monetary Union was discussed at a meeting attended by high-level German financial officials.

    A source who attended the routine meeting last week said Finance Minister Hans Eichel and Bundesbank President Axel Weber were present but did not take part in any discussion on the future of the system that gave birth to the euro.

    In response to the report about the meeting in Germany's Stern magazine, the German central bank said it rules out the failure of the EMU and added that Weber and Eichel saw the euro as a "unique success story".

    "The mere fact that it has been talked about means that it is a big deal," said Jeremy Hodges, head of FX sales at Lloyds TSB Financial Markets.

    "I see no reason whatsoever to go against the euro move."

    The reports compounded market concerns about stability in the euro zone, following a decisive "no" to the European Union constitution in France on Sunday. The Netherlands is expected to reject the charter by a wide margin on Wednesday.

    The reports also came on top of weak economic data that showed that the euro zone manufacturing sector contracted for a second month in May as output and exports shrank in two of the bloc's top three economies.

    The euro had fallen over half a percent to a 7-1/2 month low of $1.2231 by 1040 GMT. The euro also hit this year's low against the Swiss franc at 1.5305 francs and a 4-1/2 month low against the yen of 133.02 yen.
  • CSFB tõstis Google (GOOG) hinnasihi $350 peale ja aktsia on eelturul selle peale $284 peal. Võimas.

    GOOG kindlasti radaril hoida, võib turgu nii üles kui alla vedada.
  • EIA naftavarude raport tuleb esmaspäevase puhkepäeva tõttu homme 10:30
  • Gapping Up

    SCHS +21% (to be acquired by Bain Capital), MDTL +17% (C.E.O. appears on CNBC), GOOG +2.4% (target raised to $350 at CSFB), ISON +12% (announces first sales of 300mm large-diameter silicon wafers), DRRX +11% (continues recent momentum), ASIA +11% (extends 7% move yesterday), DRAM +9.7% (extends 28% move yesterday), IIJI +8.6% (extends 28% move yesterday), ORCT +7.5% (expands Japan network buildout), CYTO +7% (clinical data), IPII +6.5% (extends 40% move over last 2 sessions), XIDE +5.9% (amends debt agreements), DEPO +4.5% (co and Biovail announce Canadian regulatory approval of Glumetza), TIBX +4.4%, GEOI +4.1% (extends 22% move over last 2 sessions), BMRN +3.1% (FDA grants marketing approval for Naglazyme)... Under $3: INSM +18% (reports positive results from SomatoKine trial), TXCC +6.1% (target raised to $3 at Stanford Group), CHINA +6%.


    Gapping Down

    NAVR -13% (postpones Q4, FY05 results), EASI -12% (reports AprQ), VRTX -6% (announces secondary offering), UNTD -5%, ICOS -4.6% (extends yesterday's 4% drop), SYMM -4.3% (announces convertible offering), VDSI -4% (Wedbush downgrade), ANSI -3.9% (UBS downgrade), HOV -3.8% (reports AprQ), FCS -3.4% (guides Q2 revs lower), TSA -3%, AFFX -2.6% (to acquire ParAllele BioScience), FRO -2.5% (WSJ mentions co; shorts expect tankers to take on more water), CMCSA -1.6%.... Under $3: LJPC -5% (profit taking after 100% move yesterday).
  • Rev Shark:

    Small-Caps, Momo Stocks Offer Rewards in a Tiring Market
    6/1/05 8:30 AM ET

    It's a little like wrestling a gorilla. You don't quit when you're tired, you quit when the gorilla is tired.

    -- Robert Strauss

    Yesterday the market offered some indications that it is ready to take a rest. The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow all pulled back on increased volume. Many of the big-caps that have been leading in recent weeks, such as Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and General Electric (GE:NYSE), experienced profit-taking.

    If you spent some time investigating further, however, you would have noticed the market wasn't quite as bleak as it looked. The Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks was up for most of the day and closed nearly flat. In addition, traders were not timid about chasing some of their momentum favorites, such as Google (GOOG:Nasdaq), Research In Motion (RIMM:Nasdaq) and Dynamic Materials (BOOM:Nasdaq). If all you did was look at the three major indices, you would not have a very clear picture of what was really going on.

    As always the question is, where do we go from here? The outperformance of small-caps and momentum favorites is an indication that this rally is becoming a bit long in the tooth. When market participants start looking for underfollowed stocks that haven't moved and start throwing money at the high-beta momentum issues in order to make up for lagging performance, it is a sign that the market is becoming overextended.

    If you focus on small-caps and momentum stocks like I do, this can be a particularly lucrative time in the market. The bulls have had a nice run, but they want more and they will pile into likely suspects and cause some very big moves. The problem is that when they decide to quit playing that game, the downside moves in some of these stocks can be extremely vicious.

    I liken this market to walking an increasingly unstable high wire. The rewards of being able to successfully navigate are quite substantial, but the danger is increasing at a very fast pace. That doesn't mean you shouldn't play, but if you do, make sure you are aware of the danger involved and have a well-thought-out exit plan in mind.

    What makes this market even more interesting right now is that many of the bears seem to be anticipating that we are going to roll over and go straight down. They are convinced not only that this rally has gone too far, but that it is completely unjustified in the first place. That conviction is what got many of them in trouble in the first place, but it continues to be a dominate theme in the ursine world.

    The kickoff of a new month may help trigger a change in market character. May was particularly notable for the complete absence of any significant pullback. The Nasdaq didn't have a single day during the month where it ended down more than 1% from the prior day, which I believe may be the first time that has happened.

    We have an interesting day shaping up. Google is leading the charge in the momentum favorites due to a price target increase to $350 by First Boston. I see some other early movers out there as well, so obviously the momentum boys aren't ready to pack it in.

    The markets are indicating a positive open. Overseas markets were mostly positive, the dollar is strong again and oil continues its recent rally.

    Long GOOG

    Gary B. Smith:

  • Nasdaq liigub justkui streroidide mõjul, +20 punkti poole tunniga ja ikka suund 2100 poole.

    INTC ka jagu saanud 5 päeva graafiku vastupanust 27.35 peal.
  • Kas keegi CHINA +28% taga mingit uudist näeb?
  • GOOG juba +10 punkti. Samamoodi nagu $200 oli üsna mõnda aega oluline tase, võib selleks kujuneda $300. Kui mingeid muid tasemeid raske tõmmata (ajaloolised näiteks), siis kipuvad ümmargused numbrid suuremat rolli mängima.
  • Kas 300ni tundub tee vaba olevat? Näiteks: kaui reedesed uudised on negatiivsed, kas need omaksid jahutavat mõju ka nii kuumaks köetud aktsiale nagu GOOG?
  • Ühe turuosalise kommentaar:

    I mean, my short buds -- they're not covering, and they're just waiting for weakness to build shorts. My long friends -- the few who were/are long are trimming and the others are all waiting for a pullback to get into (you guessed it) tech. My retail trader amigos are shell-shocked and wondering if they'll ever catch a move again. And the pundits on these pages and everywhere else are preaching caution and looking for tops.

    All of which begs the question -- Who the heck is buying stocks today?

    And how about rates tanking and the corporate debt markets steady off the back of all the smart money betting on higher rates and a collapse of the bond markets? Wild times, man, wild times, even if you don't read anywhere about how crazy this all is.


  • aasta 2000 on juba meelest läinud
    uus põlvkond on peale tulenud :)
    internet jälle lendab
  • -- Who the heck is buying stocks today?
    no milleks seda trading programi siis välja lülitada kui nii hästi töötab, kind of self-fulfilling prophesy,
    kui ligi poole NYSE käibest kauplevad trading programmid.

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